Tuesdays with Torbee

In exactly a dozen days I will be sitting in one of my favorite spots on the planet, doing one of my favorite things ever.

It is insane to think about, but when Back in Black blasts, Herky plants his flag and the Swarm surges across the Kinnick Stadium turf on Saturday, September 4 at 2:30 p.m. it will have been 639 days since the last time any Iowa fan cheered on their beloved Hawkeyes in person.

Think about that. You could have produced TWO BABIES in that intervening 639 days, and the first one would be eating solid food and walking already!

Despite the existential challenges these past two years have wrought – political upheaval, a global pandemic, wild weather, general societal decay – the flame of Iowa fandom in my heart burns bright. Maybe that’s wildly irresponsible and nothing more than shallow escapism on my part, but I am still embracing it fully.

2020 notwithstanding, it’s been an annual tradition in the first TwT column of the year to make a season prediction. And I’ve been pretty spot on of late. Here is what I wrote prior to the 2019 9-3 season that culminated in a Holiday Bowl victory over USC:

I see 2019 ending up a lot like so many other seasons of late.

That is, winning around 7 or 8 games, taking down a couple rivals and failing against a couple more. Garnering a well-deserved mid-level bowl game. Rinse and repeat.

Pretty close! I underestimated the Hawks by one game.

And the 2018 prediction?

My prediction for 2018 is a very entertaining 9-3 season that sets the table for an even more special 2019. As is typical with any Iowa season, I expect perplexing highs and lows. To get to 9-3, I think Iowa will win one of its “likely loss” games and then drive fans crazy by losing one from the “toss up” category and one from the “should win” category.

Well this time I overestimated the team by one game, but that is two seasons in a row with a prediction plus-or-minus one, which I think is pretty good handicapping.

So how do I see the much-anticipated 2021 season shaking out? I am feeling (probably overly) optimistic. Enough with the doom-and-gloom and “so close” stuff. This year Iowa finally gets over the double-digit win hump and competes for a Big 10 West Division title with a sterling 10-2 regular season record.

I’ve never been a fan of the game-by-game prediction breakdown, preferring instead to break the schedule up into “likely wins,” “likely losses” and “toss ups.” For the first time in a long time, I don’t really see any “likely losses” on the card. (Spare me your outrage, Iowa State fans. Your #7 preseason ranking is fool’s gold. You have a solid squad this year that is on par with a typical recent vintage Wisconsin/Northwestern team, which you should celebrate for the achievement it is considering where you came from.) As of today, I see seven likely wins and five toss-up games.

Likely wins: Indiana, Kent State, Colorado State, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska.

Toss-ups: Iowa State, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern.

My most controversial prediction, I believe, is putting the much-improved and exciting-to-watch Indiana Hoosiers in the “likely win” category. I do this not because I think Indiana is overrated – indeed, I think they have a great thing going on right now. But as mentioned before, this will be the first true home game with fans Iowa has had in nearly two years, and the atmosphere and passion will be too much for Hoosiers to overcome.

Some early thoughts on a few of the other contests:

· Iowa State – The Cyclones will be favored in this game, and rightfully so. They will be at home, bring back their starting quarterback and a bunch of hungry seniors and are coached well. Of the “tossups” I admit this one is closest to falling into a “likely loss” category. But what gives me pause is the weight of expectations. Cyclone fans are cocky and have this one chalked up as a relatively easy, “revenge” win in Ames. Sound familiar? That shoe has been on the other foot several times, and Iowa has been the one kicked. I think this one is closer to a 50-50 tossup and would not be shocked to see Iowa stun the clones and smash their dream season early.

· Purdue – Now I sound like the cocky one, predicting a “likely win” against a team that has given Iowa absolute fits lately. But looking back at the 2020 game these two teams played, I feel Iowa gave it a way and that even mediocre quarterback play would have resulted in a win. I expect to see Spencer Petras shine in this one – he has demons to erase.

· Maryland – Should this be a “likely win?” Probably, maybe. But I was in College Park the last time Iowa played there and blew a 14-0 lead on its way to a demoralizing loss. That’s a long road trip and a weird atmosphere and I think Maryland has some skill. I’m leaving this one a toss-up.

· Wisconsin – Iowa looked good in controlling both lines of scrimmage against Bucky last year and made Graham Mertz look like a Graham cracker – easily crumbled. That said, Wisconsin was dealing with injuries and Covid issues in 2020 and will be at home in front of fans for this one. Definitely a toss-up and very may well determine your West Division winner.

· Northwestern – Another game Iowa really should have won last year. But give Pat Fitzgerald credit, he knows how to game plan for Iowa. I can’t call this a “likely” Iowa win until the Hawkeyes notch a few wins in a row against this perpetually pesky program.

· Nebraska – LOL. Probably Scott Frost’s last game back at his alma mater. Should have stayed in Florida pal.

I like what I’m hearing about the “quiet confidence” Kirk Ferentz has in this year’s team. I think Iowa is flying a little under-the-radar nationally from a talent perspective – getting robbed of easy wins against Michigan and Missouri due to Covid really made people forget how hot the 2020 Hawks were at the end of the season. This is a great position to be in, and I expect Iowa to make fans pretty happy this season.

Follow me on Twitter @ToryBrecht