NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS (5-3) at #12 IOWA HAWKEYES (8-3)
TIME: 2:00pm
TV: BTN+ - John Evans and Michael Merrick
SERIES: Iowa leads the series 24-3 (won 14 of last 15 matchups)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 85.6 PPG, 48.6% FG, 34.9% 3PT, 12.8 TO UNI: 73.5 PPG, 43.9% FG, 32.7% 3PT, 13.3 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 69.0 PPG, 39.7% FG, 31.7% 3PT, 15.1 TO, +6.3 REB MARGIN UNI: 69.4 PPG, 39.1% FG, 28.7% 3PT, 13.8 TO, -3.0 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.7 PPG, 7.5 REB, 7.2 AST, 35.1% 3PT
6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.8 PPG, 3.7 REB, 2.6 AST, 48.3% 3PT
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.5 PPG, 29.7% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.3 PPG, 6.0 REB, 39.6% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 16.7 PPG, 7.4 REB, 64.2% FG
NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS
5’6 G Maya McDermott – 13.8 PPG, 2.5 AST, 39.1% 3PT
5’9 G Kam Finley – 10.5 PPG, 3.1 REB, 41.9% FG
5’10 G Emerson Green – 9.7 PPG, 35.2% FG
6’1 F Grace Boffeli – 15.9 PPG, 8.0 REB, 59.0% FG
6’3 C Cynthia Wolf – 4.8 PPG, 6.6 REB, 40.0% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: C Monika Czinano
“I feel like we have an advantage against almost every single team we play in the post,” said Lisa Bluder. “I have that much belief in Monika. I think she’s that good. That’s part of our game plan no matter what.”
When you have a player that has led the nation in field goal percentage over the last two seasons, there is reason to believe that you will have the advantage in most games. In Czinano’s last two games against unranked opponents she has combined for 40 points and 13 rebounds on 20/27 (74.1%) shooting. Sure, it is a double dip, as I took Monika as the player to watch against Minnesota, but once again she will decidedly be the best post player on the floor. Look for her to have another good game.
UNI PLAYER TO WATCH: G Maya McDermott
“Maya (McDermott) is extremely fast. She’s got great court savvy, she’s able to hit threes at a good rate. She can penetrate and even at her slight size she’s good at being able to stretch out and score over you.”
McDermott can do a little bit of everything for the Panthers and that is why she is the player to watch tonight. She has scored in double figures six times, had 2+ assists in every game and multiple 3pt makes in six games.
She has been able to score from long range and inside the arc. McDermott takes 5.75 three pointers per game and makes them at a rate of 39.1%, but also averages 4.63 shots per game inside the arc. In four games this season Maya has shot it better than 55% from the floor. If she gets going like that tonight, it could be a reason why Northern Iowa keeps the game close.
KEY MATCHUP: Grace Boffeli vs McKenna Warnock
Whether Boffeli is the best player for the Panthers or the second-best player, she is going to be a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes. McKenna Warnock will be the one to get the defensive assignment because she can guard on the perimeter and in the post.
“Grace Boffeli is just a hard matchup because she’s as strong as a post, but will beat you off the bounce if you put a post on her. If you put a guard on her, she’ll post you up, so she’s just a hard person to defend,” said Lisa Bluder.
Boffeli leads the teams in points, rebounds, free throws and field goals made. Her 26 points and 7 rebounds against Iowa State were a big reason why the Panthers took the Cyclones down the final possession back on November 16th. This is the matchup to watch tonight.
LISA BLUDER TALKS THE RIVALRY
“In-state rivalry games bring in a little bit of added emotion. There’s sometimes you play non-conference games, and they don’t have that benefit…Whenever you play an in-state rival, I don’t care who it is, you always have that extra emotion that’s there.”
THE PICK
Last year, the Hawkeyes traveled up I-380 and took care of the Panthers by a score of 82-61. The game was never really that close after Iowa went up 24-9 in the first quarter and the bulk of the drama in the game came near the end of the contest. The Northern Iowa bench was rumored to be chirping at Caitlin Clark throughout the game and Clark got a technical foul late in the game for snapping back at them after a three-point make.
The Panthers took Iowa State to the wire earlier in the year, but couldn’t score on the final possession and lost 88-85. In their other two games against teams in the NET Top 50 teams UNI have lost by 19 points and 11 points. However, it’s an in-state rivalry, so the Hawkeyes are going to get their best shot.
“To them, I’m sure this is a special game. When I was at Drake it was always a special game. It’s an opportunity to take down a power five school. You have all those extra added incentives into it.”
Maya McDermott and Grace Boffeli combine for 29.7 points of the Panthers 73.5 points per game (40.4%), so they are absolutely going to be the players that the Hawkeyes have to focus on when playing defense. Boffeli has been very efficient with her 59.0% shooting percentage ranking 27th in the country. She also leads the team in rebounds, including 2.63 offensive rebounds per game.
G Kam Finley (10.5 ppg) and G Emerson Green (9.7 ppg) are solid third and fourth options for UNI in the starting lineup. They aren’t huge threats to shoot it from outside, but have given big contributions in several games this year. Finley went for 15 points against Iowa State and Tulane, while hitting a season-high 3 three pointers against the Green Wave. Green missed games against St Louis and Iowa State, but went for 17 points in a recent matchup against South Dakota State.
Rounding out the starting five is 6’3 C Cynthia Wolf. She is only averaging 4.8 points per game, but is second on the team in rebounds averaging 6.6 per game. Wolf will have the challenge of guarding Monika Czinano in the post.
Head Coach Tanya Warren uses five players off the bench, while G Kayba Laube and F Ryley Goebel are the main ones to keep an eye on. Laube averages 22.9 minutes, 6.5 points and 5.3 shots per game. She is second on the team in made three pointers and shoots 42.1% from long range. She has three games with 3+ three pointers this season. Goebel averages 4.5 points per game and had a season-high 14 points against Creighton.
G Taryn Wharton (11.5 mpg, 3.4 ppg), G Cailyn Morgan (11.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg) and G Riley Wright (13.9 mpg, 2.5 ppg) are other players that will likely see the court this afternoon.
Here is a look at some of the other important statistics…
2pt FG: Iowa 5th (57.2%) UNI 32nd (52.0%)
3pt FG: Iowa 58th (34.9%) UNI 117th (32.7%)
3pt Rate: UNI 41st (41.8%) Iowa 75th (38.4%)
TO: Iowa 21st (12.8) UNI 29th (13.3)
Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 16th (110.6) UNI 85th (98.7)
Def Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 149th (89.0) UNI 210th (93.7)
Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 35th (76.6) UNI 75th (74.5)
Off Rebounding: Iowa 310th (25.5%) UNI 329th (24.2%)
Def Rebounding: Iowa 2nd (79.8%) UNI 134th (70.0%)
This battle between two schools separated by just 76 miles has not been a real thrilling rivalry over the last 10 years. The average margin of victory is 22.9 points with the Hawkeyes winning nine out of the last ten and 14 of the last 15. On paper, Iowa has the advantage in a number of categories and are definitively the better team. However, Maya McDermott and Grace Boffeli have the ability to keep the Panthers in it if they have performances similar to the ones they had against Iowa State.
Still, the game is at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Hawkeyes are playing better on defense as of late and the three players that combined for 58 points in last year’s win are still on the roster. WarrenNolan.com has Iowa winning 86-69 and I want to say that this game will be a little bit closer than that 17-point spread due to the rivalry aspect, but recent history says otherwise. Hawkeyes have too many weapons and will score too many points. IOWA 84 NORTHERN IOWA 68
