PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (10-2) at #12 IOWA HAWKEYES (10-3)
TIME: 8:00pm
TV: Big Ten Network – Sloane Martin and Brenda VanLengen
SERIES: 77th meeting – Iowa leads the series 43-33 (Won five straight)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 86.3 PPG, 48.8% FG, 35.3% 3PT, 12.9 TO PURDUE: 77.6 PPG, 49.4% FG, 34.9% 3PT, 16.2 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 68.2 PPG, 39.2% FG, 30.7% 3PT, 15.8 TO, +5.6 REB MARGIN PURDUE: 64.0 PPG, 36.7% FG, 29.2% 3PT, 15.1 TO, +3.4 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.0 PPG, 7.7 REB, 7.1 AST, 34.6% 3PT
6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.8 PPG, 3.7 REB, 3.2 AST, 50.0% 3PT
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.7 PPG, 30.3% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.3 PPG, 5.7 REB, 39.3% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.4 PPG, 7.0 REB, 62.8% FG
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
5’11 G Jeanae Terry – 7.4 PPG, 8.2 REB, 7.6 AST, 49.2% FG
6’0 G Lasha Petree – 17.8 PPG, 3.9 REB, 35.2% 3PT, 48.8% FG
5’10 G Cassidy Hardin – 8.2 PPG, 36.1% 3PT
5’6 G Abbey Ellis – 12.0 PPG, 54.5% FG
6’2 F Caitlyn Harper – 10.9 PPG, 4.0 REB, 62.5% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Gabbie Marshall
It has been discussed a lot over the past couple of weeks. Gabbie Marshall has not been shooting the ball well and for any basketball player, that begins to weigh on you after a while. That is why the Christmas break may have been exactly what she needed. A couple days away from games and practice could do wonders.
Jan Jensen said that Gabbie has had a pair of good practices since the team arrived back and maybe that is a telling sign. I’ll go with the bold take and say that Gabbie knocks down a few three pointers tonight.
PURDUE PLAYER TO WATCH: G Lasha Petree
The Rutgers transfer has been a big addition to the Boilermakers and has been a big reason why they are off to a 10-2 start and are considered to be in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament. She leads the team with 17.8 points per game and has a 55.4% shooting percentage inside the three-point line. She has the ability to knock down three pointers, as she has made one in each game, including five games of 2 or 3 made three pointers.
She has scored in double figures in 11 games, including 31 points and 7 rebounds against Syracuse. She does have a tendency to turn the ball over with 41 turnovers on the year.
JAN JENSEN ON THE BOILERMAKERS
“They’re very fast this year. They love to break. We love to push it on the break, but boy they’re doing that extremely well. We’re going to have to have great transition defense.”
“(Lasha Petree) was great Bradley and to Rutgers and now Purdue. When she gets on a roll, she can score in bunches…She just gives them another dimension. She can hit the three ball. Drives really good and she has a fearlessness to her.”
“I think whoever is going to stymie the other teams (transition) push is going to have a lot better chances of being really happy at the end. If you’re a fan of going in and letting it fly, then it should be a pretty fun game to watch because both teams are going to do that first.”
THE PICK
Last year, the Hawkeyes traveled to West Lafayette and won a hard-fought battle against the Boilermakers. Iowa was able to pick up the win despite shooting 0/15 from behind the three-point line. This year, Purdue is playing better basketball and is a real threat to upset the Hawkeyes on their home floor.
Rutgers transfer Lasha Petree, as previously mentioned, has been a huge addition for the Boilermakers. Cal Baptist transfer Caitlyn Harper has been a notable addition as well, averaging 10.9 points per game, while shooting it 62.5% from the floor. That ranks 17th in the country, while she is coming off a 15-point performance against Texas A&M.
Cassidy Hardin is the best three-point shooter on the team and has had seven games with 3+ three point makes this season, including 18 points against Indiana State on 5/7 shooting from behind the arc. Jeanae Terry will run the offense at point guard and while she is just averaging 7.4 points per game, she leads the team in offensive rebounds (1.6 per gm), defensive rebounds (8.2 per gm) and assists (7.6 per gm). She has recorded just two games in double figures for scoring, but has 6+ assists in 11 games and 6+ rebounds in 10 games.
Madison Layden was averaging 7.9 points per game, but has missed the last two games, so Abbey Ellis has taken over the starting role. She is averaging 12.0 points per game, including a 54.5% shooting percentage. She has scored in double figures seven times, including a 29-point performance against SIUE.
Off the bench the Boilermakers use three players, starting with 6’0 guard Jayla Smith. She is averaging 18.3 minutes and 7.3 points per game. 6’1 forward Ava Learn and 6’4 center Rickie Woltman are each averaging 4.0 points per game. Woltman is averaging 10.2 rebounds per 40 minutes.
“I like who they bring off the bench, I like who they start,” said Jan Jensen on the post matchup. “She shot four 3s in their last game against Texas A&M and this is always unique when someone has that potential…I think they’re physical, they’re strong. They battle. I think it’s going to be a reallyg od matchup with Monika and Co.”
Here is a look at some other important stats…
2pt FG: Purdue 4th (57.9%) Iowa 6th (56.9%)
3pt FG: Iowa 49th (35.3%) Purdue 57th (34.9%)
3pt Rate: Iowa 91st (37.45) Purdue 99th (37.0%)
TO: Iowa 21st (12.9) Purdue 156th (16.2)
Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 13th (110.9) Purdue 39th (104.6)
Def Pts/100 Possessions: Purdue 114th (86.8) Iowa 124th (87.8)
Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 21st (77.1) Purdue 102nd (73.4)
Off Rebounding: Purdue 277th (27.2%) Iowa 318th (25.1%)
Def Rebounding: Iowa 2nd (78.4%) Purdue 148th (69.8%)
Coming off of the Christmas break, this is not an easy game to start with. The Boilermakers are shooting the ball very well from inside the arc and are not afraid to run the floor with a similar pace. This is the type of game that could quickly become a shootout if the Iowa defense struggles to contain Purdue and allows some easy baskets.
This feels like a game that Iowa wins, but it is a bit closer than they want it to be. Warren Nolan projects Iowa to win 81-68, but I think it ends up being a little bit higher scoring and a little bit closer. I’ll take the Hawkeyes to get to 3-0 in Big Ten play, but it will not be easy. IOWA 84 PURDUE 74
