BELMONT BRUINS (1-2) vs #4 IOWA HAWKEYES (3-1)
TIME: 2:00pm
TV: BTN+ - John Evans and Michael Merrick
SERIES: First ever meeting
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 94.3 PPG, 51.4% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 14.8 TO BELMONT: 62.7 PPG, 39.7% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 16.3 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 66.5 PPG, 36.5% FG, 28.3% 3PT, 17.8 TO, +13.5 REB MARGIN BELMONT: 69.7 PPG, 42.9% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 15.0 TO, -8.0 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
BELMONT BRUINS
5’6 PG Destinee Wells – 15.0 PPG, 4.0 REB, 3.6 AST, 48.4% FG
5’7 G Tuti Jones – 13.0 PPG, 50.0% 3PT
5’10 G Sydni Harvey – 7.7 PPG, 41.2% FG
6’0 G Nikki Baird – 1.3 PPG, 5.0 REB
6’3 F Madison Bartley – 8.7 PPG, 4.3 REB, 29.6% FG
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 25.3 PPG, 7.3 REB, 7.3 AST, 34.4% FG
6’0 G Kate Martin – 3.8 PPG, 4.0 REB, 3.0 AST, 37.5% FG
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.5 PPG, 18.8% 3PT
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.8 PPG, 6.8 REB, 61.5% FG, 47.1% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 21.8 PPG, 6.3 REB, 70.0% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Caitlin Clark
Caitlin Clark tweaked her ankle in the season opener against Southern and she reaggravated it when she went to the floor on the final possession at KSU. Although she is expected to play, the question is, can she handle her normal 32-35 minutes on the floor, and will she be as effective? The Hawkeyes are +19 in scoring with Clark on the floor the last two games and -14 with her off the floor.
BELMONT PLAYER TO WATCH: G Tuti Jones
There are a couple of reasons to keep an eye on Tuti Jones this afternoon. Last season, 54.1% of her shots came from behind the arc and she made 40.8% of her 157 3pt attempts. In three games this year, Jones is 8/16 from 3pt range, including three makes in each of the last two games. After allowing Kansas State’s Sarah Shematsi to knock down a career-high six 3pt baskets on Thursday, Iowa will have to limit the chances for Tuti Jones. On top of her three-point shooting, Jones was named Ohio Valley Defensive Player of the Year last season.
KEY MATCHUP: Iowa Rebounding vs Belmont Rebounding
The Hawkeyes have had their struggles in the rebounding department over the last couple of seasons on both the offensive and defensive side. Last time out against Kansas State, Iowa grabbed just four offensive rebounds and had zero second chance points.
However, the Bruins have not been a good rebounding team through three games. They have been outrebounded 112-88 so far this season, which ranks 300th in the country at -8.0 rebounding margin. They have also allowed their opponents to grab 42 offensive rebounds and turn it into 42 second chance points (14.0 per game).
The Hawkeyes have to get a Drake game type effort on the boards because the Bruins are susceptible to allowing second chances.
THE PICK
The Belmont Bruins have had a head scratching start to this season, but they have shown the ability to take ranked teams down to the wire. In last seasons, NCAA Tournament, the Bruins took down 5 seed Oregon and nearly knocked off 4 seed Tennessee to reach the Sweet 16. This year, Belmont has already given #5 Louisville all they could handle before falling 75-70. However, the Bruins needed a second half comeback to defeat Chattanooga 56-54 in the opener and recently were blown out by Middle Tennessee State 80-62. Weird.
Destinee Wells is one of the best point guards you haven’t heard of in women’s basketball and made the preseason Nancy Lieberman PG of the Year Watch List. She has scored 15+ points in 23 of her last 34 games and will be the main offensive threat for the Bruins.
They have a trio of 3pt shooters, led by the aforementioned Tuti Jones. South Florida transfer Sydni Harvey accumulated 175 3pt makes for the Bulls and was 3/4 in the near upset of Louisville this year. Vanderbilt transfer Kendal Cheesman is 5/10 from behind the arc as well.
Madison Bartley (4.3 rpg) and Nikki Baird (5.0 rpg) are the top rebounders for the Bruins. Baird is a threat on the offensive boards with seven on the year. Overall, Belmont has just three players with more than ten rebounds over three games. For comparison, Iowa has seven players with 10+ rebounds over four games.
Statistically, it looks like a game Iowa should be able to win at home. Belmont is 290th in defensive rebounding and 279th in offensive rebounding. They have 35 assists to 49 turnovers. They have just 36 bench points in three games. They are ranked 197th in field goal percentage.
Everything on paper points towards the Hawkeyes bouncing back from their loss to Kansas State and winning comfortably. However, this game gives off IUPUI vibes from a year ago. A good mid major program that can sneak up on you when you aren’t expecting it, except Belmont has a track record for playing ranked teams close. Warren Nolan RPI has Iowa winning 83-68, but it feels this game will be closer than the matchup looks on paper.
I’ll take the Hawkeyes to get the bounce back victory, but they have to put together a more complete performance than recent games, which means getting contributions from everyone in the starting lineup. IOWA 79 BELMONT 72
