#3 CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (4-0) vs #9 IOWA HAWKEYES (5-1)
TIME: 12:00pm
TV: ABC – Eric Frede, Rebecca Lobo and Holly Rowe
ARENA: Moda Center (Portland Trailblazers arena)
SERIES: UConn leads the series 5-3 (Lost 92-72 in 2021 NCAA Tournament)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.2 PPG, 49.5% FG, 33.1% 3PT, 12.3 TO UCONN: 87.5 PPG, 51.8% FG, 39.5% 3PT, 15.5 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 64.5 PPG, 36.5% FG, 28.9% 3PT, 15.2 TO, +10.0 REB MARGIN UCONN: 58.5 PPG, 35.7% FG, 28.9% 3PT, 20.5 TO, +10.5 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.0 PPG, 6.8 REB, 7.0 AST, 47.2% FG
6’0 G Kate Martin – 4.2 PPG, 4.5 REB, 2.8 AST, 37.0% FG
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.0 PPG, 32.4% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.2 PPG, 6.2 REB, 44.0% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 18.8 PPG, 7.0 REB, 67.6% FG
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES
5’11 G Azzi Fudd – 26.0 PPG, 53.3% FG, 40.6% 3PT
5’10 G Nika Muhl – 4.5 PPG, 3.3 REB, 10.3 AST
6’1 G Lou Lopez Senechal – 18.0 PPG, 49.0% FG, 46.4% 3PT
6’1 F Aubrey Griffin – 12.8 PPG, 5.3 REB, 64.7% FG
6’3 F Aaliyah Edwards – 15.5 PPG, 10.8 REB, 62.2% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Anyone not named Caitlin Clark or Monika Czinano
Against Oregon State, the Hawkeyes got a combined 19 points from McKenna Warnock and Gabbie Marshall. That was enough to compliment Clark and Czinano’s 45 total points and give Iowa the 73-59 victory.
Iowa is not going to hold a UConn offense averaging 87.5 points to 59 and it’s going to be hard to lean on Clark/Czinano for 50+ points against a solid Huskies defense. Whether it comes mostly from one player or several players, the Hawkeyes need to get good contributions from other places.
A good start would be getting McKenna Warnock and Gabbie Marshall into double figures, but 30-35 points from players not named Clark/Czinano would give the Hawkeyes a shot. Can Warnock go for 15+? Can Molly Davis or Kate Martin add 6-8 points each? Hannah Stuelke? Only time will tell.
UCONN PLAYER TO WATCH: G Azzi Fudd
No Paige Bueckers, no problem for the Huskies so far this season. Sophomore Azzi Fudd has been impressive through four games this season, averaging 26.0 points and shooting 40.6% from behind the three-point line. She has been particularly impressive against the two ranked squads that UConn has faced. 64 points, 25/45 (55.5%) from the floor and 10/21 (47.6%) from 3pt range against Texas/NC State. Iowa guards will have their hands full guarding Fudd.
BIGGEST KEY: Limit Turnovers and UConn Offensive Rebounds
Last time these two teams matched up, it was the 2021 NCAA Tournament, and the Huskies came out with a 92-72 victory to move on to the Elite Eight. Two things stood out in the final box score.
1. UConn grabbed 15/33 offensive rebound opportunities and had 14 second chance points
2. UConn turned 15 Iowa turnovers into 25 second chance points
Just two players that played in that game for the Huskies will play in today’s game, however, the current squad does not differ from 2020-21 team when it comes to those categories. They capitalize off of second chance opportunities and opponent turnovers. In four games this year, UConn is averaging 16.8 second chance points and 27.5 points off turnovers per game.
Iowa is #1 in the nation in defensive rebounding, pulling down 82.3% of defensive rebound opportunities. They also are in the top ten in assist to turnover ratio, while also turning it over just 12.3 times per game on 76.0 possessions per game (34th most possessions in the country). While both of those are large improvement from last season, their improvement will be put to the test today.
THE PICK
It’s not the Caitlin Clark vs Paige Bueckers match-up everyone wanted to see, but Azzi Fudd is a good substitute, and the respective supporting casts are enough to keep the hype around the game high.
Azzi Fudd has been the main scorer for the Huskies, but the starting lineup still touts three other players scoring in double figures, which is what makes them so dangerous. Fairfield transfer Lou Lopez Senechal has stepped right in and scored in double figures in all four games, including 23 in their last game against Duke. Fudd and Lopez Senechal are also the only two three-point threats on the team. They have combined to shoot 26/60 (43.3%), while the rest of the team is just 6/21 (28.6%) from behind the arc.
Nika Muhl is the other guard that will be in the starting lineup, and she is the distributor on the team. She is averaging 4.5 points, but an incredible 10.3 assists per game. Her 4.6 assist to turnover ratio is good for fourth in the country. She had a productive six point, six rebound, ten assist stat line against Duke.
Aaliyah Edwards is forced to shoulder more of the rebounding load with Dorka Juhasz (10.0 reb per gm) out this weekend due to a broken thumb. Edwards is averaging 10.8 rebounds on the year and went for 17 points and 11 rebounds in the weekend opener against Duke. It is worth noting that she has a team high 12 turnovers and the Hawkeyes were able to force the Oregon State post players into seven turnovers on Friday.
With Dorka Juhasz (10.0 ppg) out, Aubrey Griffin has been pressed into the starting lineup. She had 16 points and six rebounds in her first start against NC State. However, Griffin’s 12.8 points per game are taken away from what they can bring off the bench. The four bench options for Auriemma have combined to score just 23 points (5.8 per gm), while Ayanna Patterson is averaging 2.8 points and 4.5 rebounds to lead the group.
Looking at some of the advanced stats, both teams are very efficient inside the 3pt arc. Iowa ranks 7th on 2pt shots (59.2%), while UConn comes in 10th (57.7%). They are similar in offensive points per 100 possessions, with UConn ranking 57th (117.4 pts) and Iowa coming in at 80th (112.3 pts). On the defensive side, the Huskies have the advantage allowing 77.8 pts per 100 possessions (17th) compared to Iowa’s defense allowing 82.8 pts (41st). The teams are comparable in pace (possessions per 40 minutes), with Iowa averaging 76.0 possessions and UConn averaging 74.5 per game.
As previously mentioned, Lisa Bluder’s team absolutely has to limit the miscues if they are going to take down the Huskies because they are incredibly good at taking advantage. In three games against Power 6 schools, UConn has turned 41 opponent turnovers into 57 points and 32 offensive rebounds into 42 points. That is impressive efficiency.
This is the stage that you want to play on, the one Caitlin Clark talked about in the lead up to the season. Sunday on ABC against the UConn Huskies. Huge opportunity for both teams and for the sport in general. Win or lose, the Hawkeyes figure to learn a lot about where they stand amongst the top teams in women’s college basketball.
Geno Auriemma lost his top player and All-American before the season, but yet they haven’t even lost a step. When it comes down to making a final prediction, it just feels like Connecticut has a bit too much firepower for the Hawkeyes to pull off the win. UCONN 84 IOWA 71
