#12 NC STATE WOLFPACK (6-1) at #10 IOWA HAWKEYES (5-2)
TIME: 7:30pm
TV: ESPN2 – Pam Ward and Stephanie White
SERIES: Iowa leads the series 2-1 (Won 79-61 in 2019 Sweet Sixteen)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 86.0 PPG, 48.3% FG, 33.7% 3PT, 12.1 TO NC STATE: 83.1 PPG, 48.4% FG, 38.6% 3PT, 13.0 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 67.6 PPG, 39.4% FG, 30.2% 3PT, 15.0 TO, +6.3 REB MARGIN NC STATE: 55.7 PPG, 34.1% FG, 23.9% 3PT, 14.4 TO, +19.9 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.7 PPG, 6.9 REB, 6.9 AST, 45.5% FG
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.7 PPG, 34.8% FG
6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.4 PPG, 4.1 REB, 2.7 AST, 45.9% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 10.7 PPG, 5.9 REB, 38.9% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.3 PPG, 7.0 REB, 65.3% FG
NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK
5’5 G Diamond Johnson – 13.6 PPG, 4.7 REB, 4.1 AST, 52.5% 3PT
6’0 G Madison Hayes – 9.6 PPG, 4.6 REB, 55.0% FG
6’0 G Jakia Brown-Turner – 10.3 PPG, 3.7 REB, 2.7 AST, 45.2% FG
6’2 F Jada Boyd – 10.7 PPG, 5.0 REB, 55.1% FG
6’3 C Camille Hobby – 8.0 PPG, 4.3 REB, 45.8% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F McKenna Warnock
As we saw against Connecticut, the Hawkeyes can compete with the top teams in the country, but they need considerable contributions from players not named Caitlin Clark or Monika Czinano. Kate Martin stepped up Sunday with 20 points on 7/10 shooting and 6/6 from behind the arc against the Huskies. Tonight, McKenna Warnock could be the one that has a big game.
Warnock took 14 shots and 11 three-pointers against UConn. Both career-highs, but she was just 4/14 from the floor. It was just the third time in 17 career games that she made four field goals or less on ten or more shots. NC State is a top 15 opponent, so Warnock figures to get more looks like the UConn game. Keep an eye on her this evening.
NC STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: G Diamond Johnson
Diamond Johnson has been lethal from behind the arc this season and will hurt the Hawkeyes if she is able to get open looks. How lethal is she? She is 21/40 (52.5%) from 3pt range this season and that includes a 3/14 performance against Connecticut. That means she is 18/26 (69.2%) in the other six games this season.
She has 10+ points in six games, 4+ assists in five games and 5+ rebounds in four games, so she has the ability to contribute outside of her 3pt shooting. Still, the Hawkeyes ability to guard her on the perimeter will determine her impact on the game, as 53% of her shots come from long distance.
BIGGEST KEY: Defensive Rebounding
The NC State offense has very much benefited from their ability to extend possessions with offensive rebounds. 107 of their 582 (18.4%) points scored this season have come off of second chance opportunities. For comparison, 50 of Iowa’s 602 (8.3%) points have come on second chances. However, the teams they have faced rank 33rd, 158th, 175th, 190th, 196th, 222nd and 353rd in defensive rebounding. UConn was able to hold the Wolfpack to 13 second chance points on just ten offensive rebounds in their 91-69 victory.
The Hawkeyes will be the best defensive rebounding team NC State has faced thus far, ranking 4th in the country, but it will still take a good team effort to limit the Wolfpack. 6’5 C River Baldwin is averaging 7.0 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes and has seen her minutes increase from 11.0 over the first four games to 20.0 over the last three games. She will be the biggest one to limit on the offensive glass.
On top of Baldwin, NC State has five other players with 9+ offensive rebounds this season. If the Hawkeyes can put together another good rebounding effort, they can limit a significant part of the Wolfpack scoring.
HAWKEYES TALK WOLFPACK
“They're a good driving team. They're good in transition as well. They really like to push the ball and they love going one on one, a lot of ball screens. I think we're going to try some different things and you know, we're just going to keep being pesky on defense. But they're a really good team and I think it's a great opportunity for us to keep pushing our defensive effort.” – Kate Martin
“Just a really good solid team. Three great shooters in the starting lineup and then they've got height and they've got height off the bench, and this is a team that has four Power Five transfers, so a lot of transfers that have good experience…starting three seniors and two juniors. 6’5 coming off the bench (River Baldwin), transferred from Florida State, so they’ve got some really good pieces to the puzzle.” – Lisa Bluder
“10% of their offense comes from offensive boards and that’s a high number. We need to box out. We’ve been trying to focus on that in practice and we did a decent job over the weekend, but we need to continue to make it a focus on every single shot.” – Lisa Bluder
“I don’t know that they have went against a post like Monika yet, so there’s really no comparison to how they’re going to guard her. We’ve seen different things happen with Monika and we have to be prepared for everything. The first couple of times down the floor you’ve got to read how they decide to guard our post. Then, okay now how can we exploit that.” – Lisa Bluder
THE PICK
The ACC/Big Ten challenge has been a staple on the basketball schedule for years, but the recent decision to end the series means tonight’s game will have a bittersweet feeling. Nonetheless, it’s a big match-up between a pair of teams ranked in the top 15 in the country and the winner will add a big win to their resume while the season is still young.
The Wolfpack spread out their minutes and play a lot of players (11 players average 12+ minutes) but have played just one game that was decided by less than ten points. It’s hard to estimate how substitutions will go in a close game. Still, Lisa Bluder knows that she has to start using her bench more, especially in a match-up against a team that subs a lot.
“I need to do a better job of getting people in the games, and it needs to happen early. You know, it can't happen in the second half or the fourth quarter,” said Bluder. “ It's got to happen early. So, we have to do a better job of that.”
NC State has talented players across the board, but they aren’t the type of team that relies on a player or two to get the majority of the points. Instead, they rely on contributions from everyone that takes the floor. At least eight players have scored in each game, while they have yet to have a 20-point performance.
The aforementioned Diamond Johnson leads the team in points scored, 3pt makes and field goals made, but has four other solid starters around her on the floor. Guards Jakia Brown-Turner and Madison Hayes fill out the backcourt. The three guards combine to shoot 12.4 three-pointers per game and score 33.5 points. F Jada Boyd is the best rebounder in the starting lineup and has grabbed multiple offensive boards in five games. Starting C Camille Hobby has struggled over the last five games, shooting just 12/32 from the floor.
The bench group is led by three transfers with plenty of college experience. 6’5 C River Baldwin (FSU) , 6’3 F Mimi Collins (Maryland) and 6’1 G Saniya Rivers (S Carolina). Notably, Baldwin is coming off her best performance of the year, an 18 point, 11 rebound game against West Virginia. Aziaha James and Jessica Timmons also have combined for ten made three pointers off the bench.
Here is a look at some of the advanced stats…
2pt FG: Iowa 5th (58.0%) NC State 33rd (52.8%)
3pt FG: NC State 21st (38.3%) Iowa 94th (33.7%)
Offense Pts per 100 Possessions: NC State 12th (114.8) Iowa 20th (110.7)
Defense Pts per 100 Possessions: NC State 11th (76.4) Iowa 120th (87.2)
Turnovers: Iowa 15th (12.1) NC State 29th (13.0)
Possessions per Game: Iowa 50th (76.3) NC State 146th (72.4)
Offensive Rebounds: NC State 20th (41.0%) Iowa 323rd (24.3%)
Defensive Rebounds: NC State 1st (81.9%) Iowa 4th (80.4%)
UConn was able to limit the Wolfpack to just 13 second chance points and 6/25 from behind the three-point line. If the Hawkeyes can mimic that performance by limiting second chance points and guarding the perimeter, especially in transition, then they will have a good shot at winning.
Despite the loss on Sunday, Lisa Bluder’s squad said they felt like they belonged on the big stage. That could bring a shot of confidence to a team that has played much better basketball since the loss to Kansas State two weeks ago. Warren Nolan projects the Hawkeyes to win 79-75 and I agree that this match-up will finish with Iowa putting another one in the win column. IOWA 81 NC STATE 72
