#10 IOWA HAWKEYES (5-3) at WISCONSIN BADGERS (3-6)
TIME: 1:00pm
TV: BTN+ - Matt Blaustein and Max Stapleton
SERIES: 76th meeting - Iowa leads the series 55-20 (Won 25 in a row)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 85.4 PPG, 48.0% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 12.6 TO WISCONSIN: 71.6 PPG, 43.9% FG, 34.6% 3PT, 16.4 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.9 PPG, 41.4% FG, 31.9% 3PT, 14.5 TO, +5.0 REB MARGIN WISCONSIN: 67.7 PPG, 38.5% FG, 32.0% 3PT, 15.3 TO, +0.8 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 29.0 PPG, 6.8 REB, 6.5 AST, 32.4% 3PT
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.0 PPG, 1.5 REB, 31.4% FG
6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.5 PPG, 3.6 REB, 2.5 AST, 45.2% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.3 PPG, 6.0 REB, 39.0% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 15.8 PPG, 7.3 REB, 64.6% FG
WISCONSIN BADGERS
6’0 G Julie Pospisilova – 15.1 PPG, 5.0 REB, 4.5 AST, 50.0% 3PT
5’10 G Maty Wilke – 13.9 PPG, 3.4 REB, 34.4% 3PT
5’6 G Avery LaBarbera – 10.0 PPG, 5.0 REB, 3.1 AST, 39.4% FG
6’0 G Brooke Schramek – 9.9 PPG, 3.3 REB, 3.0 AST, 43.7% FG
6’4 F Serah Williams – 12.4 PPG, 5.8 REB, 56.3% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: C Monika Czinano
Coming into the season, Monika Czinano had scored in double figures in 67 of her last 69 games, including 20+ points in 35 of those games. All the sudden through eight games this season, Czinano has been held to ten points or less four times, including just five points against NC State. Aside from 21 shots against Drake, she is averaging just 8.3 shots per game in the other seven contests. Way down from her 13.2 shots per game average a season ago.
“I want to give credit to the defenses for doing a good job on her,” said Lisa Bluder. “But for two years, she’s led the country in shooting percentage, and I feel like we’ve seen about everything that can be imaginable defensively…As a coach, I’ve got to figure it out. I’ve got to figure out a way to get her the ball.”
Caitlin Clark continues to score her fair share of points, but the Hawkeyes have to get Monika Czinano going, especially with the inconsistency in scoring from other options on the floor. Why could that be today? Czinano has scored 92 points on 40/57 shooting (70.2%) over her last five games against Wisconsin. No, this isn’t quite the Badgers of years past, but there should be opportunities to get Czinano looks inside.
WISCONSIN PLAYER TO WATCH: G Julie Pospisilova
Julie Pospisilova is in her third season as a starter for the Badgers and has always been someone that has had the ability to put the ball in the basket. She scored in double figures 25 times last season, but now she is surrounded by a lineup with more capable scorers. That has allowed Pospisilova to get off to a very good start this season and she has played particularly well as of late.
In her last two games against VCU and Florida State, she has 59 points, 19 made field goals, 13 3pt makes, and 11 assists. On the year, Pospisilova is shooting 45.5% from the floor and an impressive 50.0% from behind the arc (23/46). Although the Badgers now have four players in the starting lineup averaging in double figures, Pospisilova is still the main threat.
KEY MATCH-UP: Iowa Perimeter Defense vs Wisconsin Three-Point Shooting
The Badgers have four capable three-point shooters in their starting lineup and as a team are shooting 34.6% from behind the arc through eight games. They are led by Julie Pospisilova, but Maty Wilke is back from an injury that sidelined her last season, and she is shooting 34.4% from deep. Holy Cross transfer Avery LaBarbera shot 32.9% from three-point range in four seasons for the Crusaders. Although she is just 9/36 (25.0%) this season, she has the ability to hit shots. Brooke Schramek is also 7/21 from outside so far this year.
The four combine to shoot 18.2 of the teams 23.1 three pointers per game. The Hawkeyes will have to close out and make sure that the Wisconsin shooters do not get open looks because they are not afraid to take and make them from deep.
LISA BLUDER TALKS WISCONSIN
“Three-point shooting, they’ve improved a lot in that area. Just having more weapons with Maty Wilke being healthy and (Avery) LaBabera is looking for her three more, she’s taking 4.5 threes per game. They have four people that can really shoot the three in their starting lineup.”
“They’re playing more up-tempo than they used to. They used to not really be an up-tempo team and I think they’re trying to the ball especially in the first quarter. They put up 87 points on Florida State, so this is a team that can score, and it used to be a team that really struggled scoring the ball.”
“Kansas State, they were winning and that was a very close game going into halftime. Georgia is a good SEC team, and they were winning that game for quite a bit, lost by eight. Seton Hall is a good team that almost always makes the NCAA Tournament and they lost by 11. Florida State by just five (points). They’re playing much better and they’re not going to be scared of the Hawks. I know that.”
“(The win streak), that’s not something I’m talking about with my team. They know everybody wants to get them. They’re the defending (Big Ten) champion…Doesn’t matter what’s happened in the past, only matters what happens on Sunday.”
THE PICK
This Badgers team has shown signs of improvement this season. All six losses have come against teams in the top 125 of the NET and they have combined for a 35-12 record. They even held second half leads against Kansas State and Georgia.
Here is a look at some advanced stats…
2pt FG: Iowa 6th (57.9%) Wisconsin 64th (49.8%)
3pt FG: Wisconsin 69th (34.6%) Iowa 96th (33.3%)
TO: Iowa 19th (12.6) Wisconsin 176th (16.4)
Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 21st (109.6) Wisconsin 80th (99.5)
Def Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 185th (91.3) Wisconsin 218th (94.5)
Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 43rd (76.7) Wisconsin 163rd (71.9)
Off Rebounding: Wisconsin 147th (32.6%) Iowa 328th (23.8%)
Def Rebounding: Iowa 3rd (80.1%) Wisconsin 213th (67.0%)
The Hawkeyes have won 25 in a row against Wisconsin and there is no doubt that the Badgers want to break that streak sooner rather than later. Wisconsin teams of the past frankly haven’t been very good, which makes it easier for Iowa to continue the streak. This year, the Badgers want to win this game as much as they have any year, but the key difference is that this team actually has the pieces to play a closer game than years past.
Warren Nolan RPI site projects the Hawkeyes to come out of Madison with an 83-60 victory and that feels like it would be on the higher end in terms of point differential. I’ll take Iowa to win and extend the series win streak to 26 games, however, a defensive effort like Thursday night could all the sudden could make things uncomfortable at the Kohl Center. IOWA 87 WISCONSIN 72
