Life on the NCAA Tournament bubble in the Big Ten is about as stressful as it gets.

A single weekend can completely change where you sit in regard to the right or wrong side of the bubble.

Fair or not, that is the way it is, and the last few years have ended with Coach Rick Heller’s squad on the outside looking in. They are trying to change their fortunes this season, but once again, it will come down the final month of the season.

Last year, the Hawkeyes sat firmly inside the field of 64 until their hopes were dashed with back-to-back late season series losses to Illinois and Northwestern. With four weekends to play this season, the Hawkeyes find themselves right in the thick of the at-large conversation, but will again have to try to navigate the final couple of weekends without stumbling like last season.

Where Iowa Stands Right Now

Iowa begins the last month of the season with a 23-13 record, including an 8-4 mark in Big Ten play. That is good enough for a tie for fourth place with Michigan. Their recent series win in Piscataway over Rutgers vaulted them up nearly 20 spots in the RPI to #57.

While the Hawkeyes are just 1-2 against Quad 1 opponents, their 11 combined wins against Q1/Q2 opponents is tied for third most among teams ranked between #45 and #70 in the RPI. Only UNC (14), Liberty (12) and Baylor (12) have more. The Hawkeyes biggest win came against Texas Tech, while series wins over Rutgers, Michigan and Central Michigan all look good.

So, are the Hawkeyes currently in the field as of today?

Going into the weekend, D1Baseball and Baseball America had Iowa on the outside looking in. However, Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball gave fans some good news yesterday during their weekly college baseball chat.

“Right now, I’d have Maryland and Iowa certainly ahead of Illinois and the same would go for Rutgers at the moment.”

That is good news, but the remaining schedule for the Hawkeyes does not do them any favors. It’s not a particularly difficult schedule. In fact, Iowa should be favored in as many as 12 or 13 of their remaining 15 games. However, that means there are lots of opportunities to play themselves back out of the field of 64.

Baseball America and D1 Baseball will reveal their updated field of 64 on Wednesday, which will give us a good idea of the Hawkeyes standing as they head to Lincoln.

The Remaining Schedule

vs Western Illinois (4-32) RPI: 295

at Nebraska (15-23) RPI: 185

vs Illinois State (15-19) RPI: 187

vs Purdue (22-13) RPI: 164

at Michigan State (16-21) RPI: 178

at Illinois Chicago (14-18) RPI: 181

vs Indiana (16-23) RPI: 135

What Iowa needs to do going forward…

First things first, Iowa cannot afford to drop any of their remaining midweek games and that starts with Western Illinois today. Assuming the Hawkeyes take care of business in that department, that leaves us with four Big Ten series. So, what should Iowa be shooting for?

17-7 is the target record. That means three series victories with a sweep mixed in to close out the year. Nebraska and Michigan State figure to be the prime candidates for a sweep, but Purdue and Indiana have been swept by Illinois and Rutgers respectively, so it can be done there as well.

So, why is 17-7 the target? 17-7 or better in Big Ten play has made the tournament every year since 2014. That season Illinois went 32-21 and 17-7, but were left out of the field of 64, despite a respectable #56 RPI ranking. However, that season just three Big Ten teams were in the RPI top 100. Right now, the Big Ten has five teams in the RPI top 80, so it certainly feels like 35-16 overall and 17-7 in Big Ten play would have the Hawkeyes in a comfortable spot going into the conference tournament in Omaha.

With Maryland and Rutgers firmly in the field, some fans are left wondering if the committee could cut things off right there with just two bids from the Big Ten. Recent history disagrees. The conference has averaged 4.2 bids per year over the last six seasons, so you have to figure that they are good for at least three again this season, barring something unforeseen from the selection committee.

Ultimately, the blueprint is there. The numbers have been crunched. Three midweek matchups and four very navigable weekend series remain the obstacles in front of Rick Heller and the Hawkeyes. If they take care of business, they will be in a good position when they head to Omaha. Stumble in a series and they may be forced to win the whole thing in Omaha to get a bid.

All we can do now is sit back and see how the final 15 games play out.