The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, with four former Hawkeyes hearing their names called over the last three days. As that quartet and a handful of other players who signed free agent deals after the draft get ready to take the first steps in their professional careers, attention turns to next year's draft.
Next year's draft class has the potential to be a very large one for Iowa. In the common draft era (since 1970) the program record for most draft picks in a single year is six players, which the Hawkeyes accomplished in back-to-back-to-back seasons in 2010, 2011, and 2012.
Could that record be broken next year? It looks possible.
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Logan Lee Drafted by Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024 NFL Draft
The Sure Things
All of these players appeared very likely to be NFL Draft picks this season before opting to return to Iowa City in 2024 for one more season in black and gold.
Luke Lachey (6'6", 253 lbs)
30 GP, 13 starts | 46 receptions, 662 yards, 4 TD
Lachey was on pace for a massive 2023 season before an untimely leg injury ended his season in Week 3; he had 10 receptions for 131 yards prior to that injury. The Iowa offense has historically featured the tight ends heavily and while we don't yet know exactly what that offense will look like with Tim Lester calling the shots, Lester will certainly get the ball into the hands of his playmakers -- which definitely includes Lachey.
If Lachey stays healthy and puts up relatively big numbers (40+ receptions, 600+ receiving yards, 6+ TD), that production plus the power of the TE U brand at Iowa should make him a Day 2 (rounds 2-3) selection at least next season, with very real first round potential as well.
Jay Higgins (6'2", 233 lbs)
45 GP, 16 starts | 217 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 5 PD, 1 INT
Higgins doesn't play a high-value position (inside linebacker) and he may get dinged for his age (23 by next year's draft) and his stature (6'2", 233 lbs), but his production won't be in question. Higgins was a tackling machine last season, recording 171 stops, including five tackles for loss and two sacks en route to an All-American nod. Higgins also had an interception, a forced fumble, and five passes defended while serving as a key leader for Iowa's defense.
It may take until Day 3 (rounds 4-7) for Higgins to come off the board, but if his production in 2024 is at all similar to his production in 2023, NFL teams won't be able to ignore what he's able to do in the middle of a defense.
Nick Jackson (6'1", 237 lbs)
60 GP, 47 starts | 464 tackles, 28 TFL, 14.5 sacks, 12 PD, 3 FF
Like Higgins, Jackson is a bit undersized — even moreso, in fact — but still phenomenally productive. Jackson tallied 110 tackles, 8 TFL, 4 sacks, and 4 passes defended last year, his first in Phil Parker's defense. That marked Jackson's fourth-straight season with 100+ tackles, 6+ TFL, and 2.5+ sacks, in fact; the previous three came while Jackson was at Virginia. With another year to acclimate to the Parker system, Jackson may even push Higgins for All-American recognition by December.
Jackson probably doesn't have the size or raw athleticism to get selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. But he's the sort of player that has a very good shot of hearing his name called on Day 3 of the draft.
Sebastian Castro (5'11", 205 lbs)
41 GP, 20 starts | 106 tackles, 11 TFL, 2 sacks, 16 PD, 3 INT
Playing the CASH position at Iowa has been a rock-solid path to the NFL in recent years, with Amani Hooker (2019), Geno Stone (2020), and Dane Belton (2022) all parlaying success in that role into draft selections. Hooker and Belton were each fourth-round picks, while Stone was a seventh-round pick.
Castro's size could make it difficult for him to be taken before the fourth round, but NFL teams should find little to dislike in his film, which ought to show some thunderous tackles, good ball skills, and strong coverage ability. That film, plus Iowa's defensive back pedigree (especially at the CASH position) should make him a valuable selection by Day 3.
Yahya Black (6'5", 315 lbs)
40 GP, 14 starts | 83 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 9 PD, 2 FF
Black has had a limited impact on the stat sheet so far, after only being a starter on the Iowa defensive line for one year. Another year with similar (or better) production would answer any lingering question marks about how Black can turn his potential into production.
Regardless of what numbers Black posts in 2024, though, he has the frame and the athleticism to attract significant NFL attention. A big season and a strong showing at the NFL Scouting Combine could push Black into a Day 2 pick in 2025.
Needs a Good Senior Season
This set of players likely needs a strong season season in 2024 to put themselves into NFL Draft consideration.
Deontae Craig (6'3", 266 lbs)
38 GP, 14 starts | 99 tackles, 18 TFL, 11 sacks, 3 FF
Craig went from a rotational part of Iowa's defensive line in 2021 and 2022 to a featured part (starter in all 14 games) in 2023, but the production didn't increase with his larger role. In fact, his production actually declined -- Craig went from 10 TFL and 6.5 sacks in 2022 to 5 TFL and 3 sacks last fall as he dealt with some injuries.
Given that Craig doesn't have ideal size for an NFL defensive end, he'll need to offset that with high-level intangibles and prolific on-field results. Specifically, Craig will need to show more pop as a pass rusher in 2024 -- that's likely to be the difference between him being a late round draft pick or a possible free agent signing.
Jermari Harris (6'1", 190 lbs)
32 GP, 18 starts | 78 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 17 passes defended, 5 interceptions
Two years ago, Harris seemed poised to be the next defensive back off the assembly line and head from Iowa's secondary to the NFL. Harris had four interceptions and eight total passes defended across 13 games (6 starts) in 2021. Then Injuries knocked Harris out for the entire 2022 season and he was solid but not standout in his return to Iowa's secondary last fall.
With Cooper DeJean gone, Harris should start the season as Iowa's top cornerback. If he's able to regain some of his form from two seasons ago and help Iowa's secondary rediscover its ballhawking ways, he should play his way back into being a solid NFL Draft pick.
Cade McNamara (6'1", 205 lbs)
26 GP, 21 starts | 313/513 (61%), 3686 passing yards, 25 TD, 10 INT
McNamara's small size and significant injury history (season-ending leg injuries in both 2022 and 2023) are likely to be massive red flags on his draft resume. McNamara's actual passing numbers over the past three seasons tend to fall more toward the good-not-great range as well. Still, a Power 4 quarterback with potentially 30+ starts will often be on the NFL's radar.
Ultimately, McNamara's status as a potential NFL draft pick is something of a litmus test for the Iowa offense this fall. The best case scenario is that McNamara stays healthy for the entire year and flourishes in Tim Lester's offense, which might be able to get him some NFL attention. If that doesn't happen, McNamara will probably be trying to wrangle a training camp invite.
Juniors Who Could Have Big Seasons
There are also a handful of juniors on Iowa's 2024 roster that could develop some real 2025 draft buzz with breakout seasons this fall.
Kaleb Johnson (6'0", 222 lbs)
23 GP, 11 starts | 268 carries (4.6 ypc), 1242 rushing yds, 9 TD; 7 receptions, 52 rec. yds
Johnson's career at Iowa began with a lot of promise: 5.2 ypc, almost 800 yard, and six touchdowns as a freshman in 2022. Things took a step back last year as injuries, an increased role for Leshon Williams, and Iowa's overall offensive struggles cut Johnson's production to 3.9 ypc, 360 yards, and just three touchdowns.
A lot of things would need to happen for Johnson to become a legit pro prospect next year -- he'd have to regain the RB1 role, the Iowa OL would have to be much better, the offense as a whole would need to be better in order to keep teams from loading the box with 8-9 defenders -- but if those things do happen and Johnson is able to take a leap in his third year on campus... then he could have a decision to make next January.
Aaron Graves (6'4", 293 lbs)
26 GP, 0 starts | 52 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 FF
Graves is in a similar spot this season to Deontae Craig last season -- a solid rotational piece becoming a featured player and starter on the Iowa defensive line. If that new starting role becomes a platform to explode into bigger production as a junior, NFL draft buzz will follow.
Graves has solid size and an excellent motor -- now, like Yahya Black, he needs the production to match. If things click for Graves this fall, he could become the disruptive force Iowa needs on the DL, which could position him to enter the NFL Draft as well.
Xavier Nwankpa (6'2", 210 lbs)
26 GP, 13 starts | 38 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 5 PD, 2 INT
Hype has followed Xavier Nwankpa since he burst onto the national recruiting scene and became a five-star prospect. The buzz continued to build after Nwankpa recorded a pick-six in his first career start against Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. Nwankpa's first year as a starting safety in 2023 was good more often than it was great, though.
Nwankpa could be poised for a big season in 2024, though -- he's got plenty of in-game experience and he noted this spring that the game had begun to "slow down" for him. That's usually when defensive backs are able to better anticipate plays and have quicker reactions, which often leads to more big plays. If that happens, Nwankpa will be in line for a big 2024 season -- and a possible NFL early entry decision.
What About the Offensive Line?
One position has been conspicuously absent from the discussion so far: the offensive line. Iowa has five offensive linemen listed as seniors or grad students heading into this fall. While there are multiple Iowa offensive linemen who will be draft-eligible and the Hawkeyes have a strong NFL pedigree at OL (19 selections since 2003), there don't appear to be any surefire draft picks from this group, either.
Logan Jones (6'3", 290 lbs) | 27 GP, 26 starts
Mason Richman (6'6", 312 lbs) | 42 GP, 39 starts
Nick DeJong (6'6", 305 lbs) | 46 GP, 24 starts
Connor Colby (6'6", 311 lbs) | 40 GP, 37 starts
Tyler Elsbury (6'5", 312 lbs) | 37 GP, 3 starts
There's a lot of experience among those players -- by the end of next season, if all stay healthy, Colby and Richman are in line for 50+ starts each and Jones will be nearing 40. The reps have certainly been there.
What's missing has been high-level production in the trenches; Iowa's offense has been rock bottom in recent years and while that side of the ball has had a multitude of problems, one of them has been inconsistent, often poor play from the offensive line.
If that changes in 2024 and one or more of the guys listed above is able to put things together and be a consistently high-level performer, providing reliable pass protection and solid run blocking, then Iowa could have its first offensive lineman draft pick since Tyler Linderbaum in 2022.
If Lester's new offense fails to get Iowa's gears turning again up front though, that relative drought of offensive line draft picks (just three since 2017) is likely to continue.
If The Stars Align in 2024
Finally, let's talk about the longshot.
Kaleb Brown (5'10", 197 lbs)
15 GP, 4 starts | 23 receptions, 220 rec. yards, 1 TD; 9 carries, 54 rushing yards
Only four wide receivers have been selected in the NFL Draft during the Kirk Ferentz Era, and just one since Marvin McNutt in 2011 -- Ihmir Smith-Marsette in 2021. The track record for Iowa wide receivers turning into NFL prospects is almost nonexistent. In no way should Brown be considered a likely NFL Draft pick next year.
So consider this a Hail Mary pick -- if the Tim Lester offense hits in a big way, a few players will likely be big beneficiaries and put up some notable stats. Outside of Lachey and Johnson, Kaleb Brown seems like the most likely offensive skill player to take a big leap in production next fall. Brown has the skills (particularly speed and route-running) and if Lester is able to get the ball in his hands more often (especially in the open field), Brown could really make a splash next season.
Is all of that likely? Almost certainly not. But big dreams and lottery picks are part of the appeal of the NFL Draft and that's what Brown could be next season, if a lot of things go right for Iowa on offense.
Whether Brown has a blowout season or not, Iowa looks to be in very good position to have a lot of players drafted next year. Tying -- or breaking -- the program record of six draft picks looks like a very realistic goal.