With Selection Sunday right around 48 hours away, it is time to look at where the Iowa Women’s Basketball team will land and who they could potentially see in the first couple rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes are heading into the tournament on a seven-game win streak and those wins have drastically changed their seeding placement.
Just three weeks ago, the Hawkeyes were projected as a #7 seed, while sitting at 16-7 and fifth in the Big Ten Standings. Since then, Iowa has secured the Big Ten regular season crown, as well as the Big Ten Tournament crown and they have firmly secured the opportunity to host a regional in Iowa City. Now let’s dive into some actual bracket projections…
The Hawkeyes have put together a pretty good resume and that’s thanks in large part to going 6-0 vs Q1/2 teams over this seven-game win streak. They are 16-7 in Q1/2 games and their worst loss on the team sheet is a one-point loss to 24-4 IUPUI, who has recently clinched an auto-bid out of the Horizon League. So where does Lisa Bluder’s squad sit in seed order?
There isn’t much to this. A #3 seed is basically a guarantee at this point. Beating Northwestern in the quarterfinal, essentially locked up an opportunity to host a regional, while winning the Big Ten Tournament altogether gives the Hawkeyes a boost up to the #3 seed line. Had Iowa been able to play in the Cancun Challenge back in November, they would have been able to add a pair of Q2 wins vs Seton Hall and USC. Maybe that would have given them an argument to sneak into a #2 seed spot, but where things stand going into Sunday, that is likely off the table.
It is great news that Caitlin Clark and Co. will get more games at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season, but right now the more interesting discussion is, who will the Hawkeyes welcome to Iowa City?
Breaking Down Potential Iowa City Visitors
#14 Seeds
The Hawkeyes will square off against a #14 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, which means they will be facing a mid-major that won their conference tournament. History is on Iowa’s side, as 14 seeds are 0-108 all-time in the women’s tournament, but everyone knows that one day, that will go by the wayside. Hopefully, just not in Iowa City this year.
Most Likely - Southern Illinois Salukis (20-8), Belmont Bruins (22-7), Buffalo Bulls (24-8)
The Salukis still have to win the MVC Tournament to secure a spot in the tournament, but they seem to be the favorite to face the Hawkeyes if they can do that. SIU is 0-5 against Q1 opponents, but a perfect 4-0 against Q2. They have three players that average in double figures, including F Abby Brockmeyer, who averages 16.1 ppg and 9.9 rebounds.
Buffalo will face Ball State in the MAC Title tomorrow with a shot at an auto-bid. The Bulls are 0-4 against Q1 teams, but are 4-2 against Q2 teams. They have a similar NET ranking to SIU, so I feel that a 14 seed will be their placement if they win. They are led by G Dyaisha Fair who is averaging 23.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, while shooting 35.9% from behind the arc. F Summer Hemphill (13.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg) is another big piece on a team that is ranked #18 in points per game (75.8) and #19 in rebounds per game (42.0).
The Bruins won the Ohio Valley tournament to punch their ticket to the tournament and have been projected at both a #13 and #14 seed over the last couple weeks. Their resume includes a 2-4 record against Q1/2 teams, while they are 14-1 vs Q4, which leads me to believe they will be a #14 seed over #13. Belmont ranks #24 in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 55.5 points per game. They are led by G Destinee Wells 16.6 points per game, while G Tuti Jones shoots nearly 39% from behind the arc.
Wildcards - UT Arlington Mavericks (20-7), Charlotte 49ers (20-9)
A couple of wildcards to wrap up this section, starting with UT Arlington. The Mavericks upset Troy in the Sun Belt title game and have been projected between a #14/#15 seed. They are led by F Starr Jacobs, who averages 21.1 ppg, 6.6 rebounds and has a 54.7% field goal percentage.
The 49ers still have to win the CUSA Tournament and if they do, they will likely find a location closer to home than Iowa City, but they have been projected on the #14 line, so some other upsets could change that. They are led by G Octavia Jett-Wilson, who averages 18.3 points per game.
#6 Seeds
Most Likely - Ole Miss Rebels (23-8) or North Carolina Tar Heels (23-6)
The Rebels have been projected to come to the Iowa City regional by ESPN for over a week now. They are 14-8 against Q1/2 teams, including wins over #16 Kentucky, South Florida and a sweep of Florida. Ole Miss is a very poor 3pt shooting team (27.5%), but a deep team, as nine players average 10+ minutes per game. C Shakira Austin leads the way averaging 15.4 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.
The Tar Heels are projected as a #6 seed by ESPN and my current pick to come to Iowa City. They are 5-6 against Q1 teams and a perfect 7-0 against Q2 teams. They have wins over #5 Louisville and #17 Virginia Tech. UNC boasts the #7 scoring margin in the entire country and 43.3 rebounds per game ranks #13. They are led by G Deja Kelly who averages 15.9 points per game and shoots 35.3% from behind the arc.
Others - Kentucky Wildcats (19-11), Georgia Bulldogs (20-9)
Kentucky threw their hat into the #6 seed ring, going 4-0 at the SEC Tournament, including wins over #9 LSU, #19 Tennessee and #1 South Carolina. While 19-11 is not a normal record for the #6 seed line, the late season run they made gives them a shot. The Wildcats rank #318 in 3pt defense, allowing teams to shoot 34.2% from behind the arc. They are led on offense by NPOY candidate G Rhyne Howard who is averaging 20.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and shoots 38.4% from behind the arc.
Georgia is another team that is right on the line between a #6/#7 seed. The Bulldogs are 12-9 against Q1/2 teams, including a huge wins over #3 NC State and #22 Notre Dame. UGA shoots just 31.1% from behind the arc, but they hold teams to just 29.9%. They are led by C Jenna Staiti who averages 15.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and shoots 51.7% from the field.
#11 Seeds
The #11 seed line is the most chaotic in the entire bracket and at this point in time, there are probably close to ten teams that are projected between a #10 and #12 seed right now, that could land in Iowa City. However, they are the least likely opponent for the Hawkeyes in the regional, so I’ll keep things very brief for each team.
Missouri State Bears (23-6), Wash State Cougars (19-10), USF Bulls (24-8), Princeton Tigers (22-4), UMass Minutewomen (26-6), South Dakota Coyotes (27-5)
Missouri State is 8-5 in Q1/2 games, including wins over #17 Virginia Tech, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State and Missouri. They probably need a win or two in the MVC Tournament to stay in the at-large conversation. The Bears boast four scorers in double figures and are led by F Jasmine Franklin who averages 14.9 points and 12.1 rebounds, while shooting 53.8% from the floor.
Washington State is 12-10 against Q1/2 teams, including wins over #20 Arizona and Gonzaga. Really interesting note, the Cougars are outshot by their opponents, outrebounded and only outscore their opponents by 0.5 points per game. They are 8-8 away from home.
South Florida is 10-7 in Q1/2 games, including signature wins over #2 Stanford and Oregon. While the Bulls are a poor 3pt shooting team (29.5%), they are a great rebounding team (40.7 per gm). They are led by F Bethy Mununga’s 10.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game.
Princeton has the Ivy League Title game tomorrow, and a win would likely move them out of the #11 seed conversation, but an loss would keep them on this list. They are 7-3 in Q1/2 games, including a win over a ranked #23 Florida Gulf Coast squad. The Tigers defense is ranked #3 in the country, as they allow just 49.9 points per game. On the offensive side, they are led by G Abby Meyers. She averages 17.8 points and 6.2 rebounds, while shooting 40.6% from behind the arc.
Massachusetts is 7-6 against Q1/Q2 teams, including a win over South Dakota State and a close loss to #10 Iowa State. They won the Atlantic 10 Tournament and are right on the #11/#12 seed border. The Minutewomen are led by F Sam Breen, who averages 16.9 points and 10.3 rebounds, while G Sydney Taylor averages 15.8 points.
South Dakota is 5-5 in Q1/2 games, and won the Summit League Tournament over South Dakota State. The Coyotes are right on the line between a #10/#11 seed. They rank #38 in the country in FG% at 43.9% and are led by G Chloe Lamb (16.0 ppg) and C Hannah Sjerven (14.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg).
First Four Matchup? – Missouri Tigers (18-12), Villanova Wildcats (23-8), Dayton Flyers (25-5) Boston College Eagles (19-11) Rhode Island (22-6)
All the projections for the First Four matchups have them heading somewhere outside of Iowa City, but that does not leave Iowa off of the hook. Nova G Maddy Siegrist (25.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 35.9% 3pt), Missouri G Aijha Blackwell (16.6 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 50.7% FG) and Boston College G Cameron Swartz (16.0 ppg, 35.3% 3pt) are among the best players in that group. If Rhode Island and Dayton make the tournament field, their respective scoring defenses are among the best in the country.
All of these questions on who Iowa will play and who will come to Iowa City will quickly be answered Sunday night. One thing is for sure, the seven-game win streak leading into the NCAA Tournament has given the Hawkeyes a much easier road to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
