The 2024 college football season is still three and a half months away from kicking off, which means there's plenty of time to start thinking about next season. Win totals for the 2024 college football season are being released now, giving us a good excuse to think about how things might play out next fall.
Here are the 2024 win totals for Iowa and e other 17 Big Ten teams, courtesy of Brett McMurphy and The Action Network.
Ohio State and conference newcomer Oregon lead the way with an over-under of 10.5 wins. Win total bets only cover the 12-game regular season. To hit the over on a total of 10.5, Ohio State or Oregon would need to win 11 or 12 games.
Michigan, the reigning national champions, and Penn State occupy the next tier, with win totals of 9.5 each.
Iowa sits in the third tier of teams, with a win total of 7.5. Nebraska and two other Big Ten newbies, USC and Washington, are the other teams in that tier.
Eight of the remaining 10 teams have win totals between 5 wins and 7 wins, with Michigan State and Purdue representing the bottom of the win total predictions, with 4.5 wins apiece.
So what to make of Iowa's win total of 7.5 wins? Iowa has gone over that total in four of the last five full seasons. The only exceptions were 2020, when the Hawkeyes went 6-2 in the pandemic-shortened season and 2022, when they went just 7-5 in the regular season. In fact, Iowa has won nine or more games in three of the past four full regular seasons.
In terms of personnel, Iowa has multiple returning starters on both offense and defense. The offensive line returns a host of multi-year starters, as well as talented pieces at running back, tight end, and wide receiver. The main questions for Iowa on offense center around the health of Cade McNamara at quarterback, the depth of the wide receiver unit, the progress of the offensive line, and how quickly Tim Lester can improve the offensive schemes.
The defense will be without Cooper DeJean, a unanimous first-team All-American and second-round NFL Draft pick, as well as key senior leaders Logan Lee and Joe Evans. But the defense also returns its entire set of starting linebackers (including senior leaders Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson) and everyone in the secondary except DeJean, including several very experienced players like Quinn Schulte, Jermari Harris, and Sebastian Castro.
Iowa also appears to have a largely favorable schedule in 2024:
The road game at Ohio State looks like Iowa's most challenging game by far. But the Hawkeyes don't draw any of the other teams with win totals of 9.5 or better. Nebraska and Washington are the only teams Iowa draws from the 7.5 win total pool -- and both of those games are in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes also get four games against teams near the bottom of the win-total projections: Northwestern, UCLA, Minnesota, and Michigan State.
Iowa's ability to hit the over on 7.5 wins also probably depends on continued close game success for the Hawkeyes. In both 2021 and 2023, Iowa went 10-2 in the regular season; the Hawkeyes went a combined 10-1 in games decided by seven points or less in those seasons. In 2022, when Iowa went just 7-5 in the regular season, the Hawkeyes were only 2-3 in games decided by seven points or less.
Unless Iowa plans to win a lot of blowouts next season, the Hawkeyes will need to win a solid majority of close games in order to rack up enough wins to clear the over on the 7.5 win total.
But what do you think -- does a win total of 7.5 for Iowa next fall seem fair? Too low? Too high?
Or what about the other Big Ten teams? Do any of their win totals seem way too high or way too low? Let us know on our message boards or in our replies on social media.
