The 2024 college football regular season is right around the corner, which gives us an opportunity to put down a few predictions for how the Iowa offense will perform in terms of statistics. Improvement is the goal for 2024, given the rock-bottom levels the offense has hit the last few years, but what does improvement look like? What sort of impact does new offensive coordinator Tim Lester have in his first year on the job? That's not easy to quantify, but we'll take a shot.
READ: 2024 Iowa Football Stat Predictions: QB and RB
Next up? WR and TE.
WIDE RECEIVER
It's unfortunate, but Brian Ferentz's legacy as an offensive coordinator will be the brutal inefficiency of the Hawkeye passing game, and that starts with his inability to get the wide receivers fully incorporated into the pass game.
Iowa has not had a wide receiver finish with over 400 receiving yards in a season since 2019 -- when four different receivers had 400+ receiving yards (Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Tyrone Tracy, Jr., Brandon Smith, Nico Ragaini). Since then no receiver has managed more than Ragaini's 386 yards in 2021 over the course of a full season.
The decline of WR productivity in the Iowa offense has, at least, coincided with marked increase in production from the tight ends. Tight ends have led Iowa in receptions and receiving yards in four of the last six seasons, with 2019 and and 2020 being the only outliers. In both seasons Iowa had a few more experienced options at receiver (Smith-Marsette and Smith) as well as inexperience at tight end (a young Sam LaPorta was the top option there).
Resuscitating the wide receiver position is a major priority for new offensive coordinator Tim Lester and new wide receiver coach Jon Budmayr in 2024, but it remains to be seen what that final production might look like. On paper, Iowa appears to have better options at receiver than it has had in a few seasons, between Kaleb Brown, Jacob Gill, Seth Anderson, Jarriett Buie, and Dayton Howard.
In 2023, Iowa receivers combined for 76 receptions and 754 receiving yards, which averaged out to 5.4 catches and 54 yards per game. The receivers will surpass those extremely modest numbers in 2024 -- but how much better will they be? Likewise, determining which receivers will be the most productive from a stat prediction standpoint feels a bit like throwing darts at the wall. But let's give it a try.
2024 PREDICTION:
Gill: 40 receptions, 420 yards
Brown: 35 receptions, 460 yards
Buie: 20 receptions, 300 yards
The reports out of training camp on Gill have been very positive and he seems like he could be a steady, sure-handed presence at slot receiver for Iowa. If he can consistently make catches and move the chains, that would be a tremendous boost for Iowa.
Brown, meanwhile, has been the most explosive option for the Hawkeyes since he arrived in Iowa City and the combination of that explosive ability and the high target volume he ought to receive should set him up to produce solid numbers this fall.
As for the third option at receiver, Buie has been another name generating positive buzz at receiver during training camp and he could emerge as one of Iowa's best options as an outside receiver.
TIGHT END
As previously noted, the Iowa pass offense has become increasingly tight end-centric in recent seasons. Erick All missed half the season last year due to injury -- and still led Iowa in receiving yards (299). In 2021 and 2022, Sam LaPorta was the focal point of Iowa's passing offense -- and no one else was even close. His 58 catches were 24 more than anyone else had in 2022 (Nico Ragaini, 34 receptions) and his 657 receiving yards were over 250 yards more than the next-best receiving option (Luke Lachey at 398 receiving yards). In 2021, LaPorta's 53 receptions were 22 more than the next top target (Tyler Goodson, 31 catches) and his 670 receiving yards were over 300 yards more than the player with the next-most receiving yards (Keagan Johnson, 352 yards).
One of Lester's goals with the Iowa pass offense is to rebuild the wide receiver position and get more production from those players. In future seasons, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a receiver lead Iowa in receptions and/or receiving yards. But that probably won't be the case yet in 2024. Luke Lachey is not just the best option in the Hawkeye passing game, he's very likely the best player on Iowa's entire offense. A healthy Lachey should be the number one option and he should get plenty of action.
2024 PREDICTION:
Lachey: 50 receptions, 550 yards
Ostrenga: 25 receptions, 250 yards
Those numbers for Lachey represent declines from what LaPorta produced in 2021 and 2022, but with the goal of getting the wide receivers more involved this year and making Iowa's pass offense more balanced, it seems likely that Lachey won't hit the LaPorta numbers this fall, though he certainly possesses the ability to do so. Ostrenga looks set as the TE2 this fall, which should still generate a solid number of opportunities in Iowa's offense.
