The Big Ten Championship Game will be played on Saturday night (7 PM CT, FOX) -- despite Iowa being a 22-point underdog to #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) and given next-to-no chance to beat the Wolverines, the game hasn't been canceled or bypassed. But how does Iowa take advantage of that opportunity and pull off the biggest upset in the history of the Big Ten Championship Game?

In order to win, Iowa will need to turn around a trend of futility against the big three of the Big Ten East -- Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. Since a 23-20 win over Penn State in 2021, the Hawkeyes have lost four in a row against those teams -- and the losses haven't even been close. Iowa was outscored 154-27 in those four games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.

2021: Michigan 42, Iowa 3 (Big Ten Championship Game)
2022: Michigan 27, Iowa 14
2022: Ohio State 54, Iowa 10
2023: Penn State 31, Iowa 0

For the most point, those games truly got out of hand in the second half -- Iowa was outscored 91-14 after halftime in those games, with the Hawkeyes' only post-halftime points coming in the form of a pair of garbage time touchdowns against Michigan in 2022.

The Iowa defense has generally been able to keep things close within the first half of those games (the most lopsided game at halftime was the 2022 Ohio State game, which Iowa trailed 26-10 at the break -- but even that game was only 16-10 until Iowa conceded a field goal and pick-six late in the second quarter). Unfortunately, there's been a persistent trend of the Iowa offense being unable to move the ball or maintain possession, which results in the Iowa defense breaking down in the second half and giving up big plays and points in bunches.

Here are five things Iowa will need to do against Michigan on Saturday night to avoid having that game turn into yet another one-sided beatdown at the hands of one of the Big Ten East's best.

Iowa's turnover margin in the four losses noted above was a combined -7, though almost all of the damage came from the Ohio State (-4 turnover margin) and Penn State (-4 turnover margin) losses. Turnovers were a killer in both of those defeats. Against Ohio State, Iowa turned the ball over on its own side of the 50 four times -- which the Buckeyes turned into 20 points.

It could have been worse, too, considering that the defense twice held Ohio State to field goals after the offense turned the ball over deep in its own territory. Against Penn State, four Iowa fumbles led to 17 Penn State points, including 10 in the first half when the game was still a contest.

Iowa has to win the turnover margin against Michigan -- a negative turnover margin is a recipe for short field and easy scores for Michigan and the game turning into the one-sided rout most observers expect it to be. That said, winning the turnover margin alone won't guarantee anything for Iowa, since the Hawkeyes actually finished +1 in turnover margin against Michigan in the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game -- and still lost 42-3.

In addition to avoiding turnovers that prevent the Hawkeyes' own scoring opportunities, Iowa needs to force turnovers from Michigan. Not just that, but the turnovers need to be useful turnovers. For example, snaring an interception on a half-ending Hail Mary is fine, but it probably doesn't provide Iowa with a chance to score points. Iowa needs turnovers that either directly score points (pick-six, fumble return for a touchdown) or set the Iowa offense up with strong field position.

This hasn't been a great season for generating turnovers -- Iowa's usual ballhawks haven't produced to the level we've seen in the recent past. Iowa actually has a -1 turnover margin on the season and has forced just 15 turnovers -- five fumble recoveries and 10 interceptions. On Saturday night, Iowa needs to recover its old turnover mojo.

Three-and-outs have been a persistent problem for Iowa's offense in 2023, which has increased the pressure on Iowa's defense -- as well as the wear and tear on that unit. Nowhere was that more evident than in the Penn State game, where the Nittany Lions were essentially able to play keep-away with the ball and wear down the Iowa defense to the point that it broke several times in the second half. Penn State had an over 30-minute advantage in time of possession (45:27 to 14:33) and Iowa ran just 12 plays in the second half.

Iowa has only had two games in 2023 that didn't feature a single three-and-out sequence on offense: against Western Michigan and against Rutgers. Not coincidentally, those were also Iowa's two most comfortable wins of the season as well. Good things happen when the offense is able to pick up first downs and sustain drives.

Iowa averaged over five three-and-out sequences a game in its other 10 games this season, with an average of around three three-and-out sequences per second half in those games. That futility puts a lot of added pressure on the defense and forces them to spend more time on the field.

Consider this disparity -- the Michigan defense has faced the fewest plays of any defense this season (672). The Iowa defense has faced the 38th most plays of any defense this season (832) -- and there aren't too many other 10-win teams in their neck of the woods in that category. (One notable exception: Washington; the 12-0 Huskie defense faced a whopping 875 plays in its first 12 games this season.)

Picking up first downs and sustaining drives is necessary for the Iowa offense to score points (unless the Hawkeyes plan to score five 60+ yard touchdowns like Iowa State did last week). It's also necessary to give the defense time to rest and recharge and ensure that it can get stops in the second half.

The Iowa defense is going to have its hands full trying to slow down a talented Michigan offense that's also very patient and methodical. Forcing stops will be hard enough without having to do it with almost no rest between defensive series because the offense could only muster a quick three-and-out before punting the ball back to Michigan.

That said, on the topic of the Iowa offense moving the ball, the Hawkeyes need to look for -- and hit on -- multiple chunk plays in this game. Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country. Iowa has one of the worst offenses in the country. It simply is not realistic to expect the Iowa offense to be able to produce several drives of 7-10 plays (or more) against that defense.

Hitting on multiple chunk plays is easier said than done, of course. Iowa will be without the services of two of its best offensive playmakers (and yards-after-catch threats) with Luke Lachey and Erick All sidelined. As is the case in virtually every other offensive category, Iowa also ranks among the nation's worst in big plays on offense -- 132nd in plays of 10+ yards (93), 128th in plays of 20+ yards (33), 114th in plays of 30+ yards (18), and 122nd in plays of 40+ yards (6). It's only on plays of 50+ yards where Iowa climbs out of the cellar -- to rank 65th (6).

The Iowa offense has lacked explosiveness all season long. Somehow, someway, Iowa needs to hit on some big plays that allow Iowa to cover large swaths of the field in a single play (and maybe even score points as well). Whether that's Leshon Williams or Kaleb Johnson finding a way to break off a few longer runs or Deacon Hill connecting with Kaleb Brown, Nico Ragaini, or Addison Ostrenga for a big passing play, Iowa needs to find a handful of plays like that in this game in order to give themselves a realistic shot to beat the Wolverines.

When (if?) Iowa does have scoring opportunities against Michigan, it's absolutely critical that the Hawkeyes convert those scoring chances into points -- and ideally into touchdowns. Last week, the offense had multiple opportunities to bury Nebraska in the first half of that game -- instead, two blocked field goals and a dropped touchdown pass meant that Iowa scored just 10 points in the first half. They should have had at least 16 points, if not 20.

When the Iowa offense fell into its predictable doldrums in the second half, the Hawkeyes once again had very little margin of error to win the game. Even then, it still took a highly improbable interception by Ethan Hurkett to set up Iowa's game-winning score in the game.

Given how lopsided Iowa's four previous losses against Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan have been, it might be a bit of a stretch to say taking advantage of scoring opportunities would have turned those losses into wins -- but doing so would have certainly made the games more competitive.

Against Michigan in the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game, for instance, Iowa missed a 32-yard field goal early in the game (it would have given Iowa a 3-0 lead, in fact) and then settled for a 22-yard field goal after having first-and-goal at the Michigan 9-yard line. Iowa also punted from Michigan territory on three subsequent drives. Recall that Iowa trailed just 14-3 in the first half of that game -- touchdowns, or even a few more converted field goals, could have made that game much closer at halftime and who knows how the second half might have played out.

Iowa can't afford to blow scoring opportunities against Michigan because odds are they won't have too many legitimate chances to score points against this Wolverine defense. Making the most of the chances that they do get is vital. At least some of those scoring chances have to turn into touchdowns as well for Iowa to have a chance -- field goals alone aren't going to beat this Michigan squad.

Finally, Iowa needs to embrace a bit of risk on offense and shake things up in terms of the playcalling. Having a chance to win a Big Ten championship is Iowa's stated goal at the beginning of every season -- well, here it is. Achieving that goal is going to mean digging through every nook and cranny of the Iowa playbook and emptying the proverbial kitchen sink in this game.

If there are any trick plays (or "exotics") that Iowa has been holding in reserve, this is the time to use them. If there are any tendency-busting plays Iowa has been setting up and waiting to pay off, this is the time to go for that pay-off. The Iowa offense can't afford to be overly predictable in this game.

To be sure, that doesn't mean being reckless. If the trick play isn't there, Iowa should bail out and live to fight another down. Iowa can't afford to be too aggressive in a negative way and turn the ball over to Michigan and set the Wolverines up with easy scoring opportunities of their own.

But the usual offensive gameplan has barely worked all season long. The odds of it working effectively against a defense as good as Michigan's is this year look very slim. Iowa is going to need to show some wrinkles, run some change-ups, and get a little weird on offense.

Obviously, Iowa is handicapped on offense by not having three of its best players (QB Cade McNamara, TE Luke Lachey, TE Erick All) available for this game. The injury to Cooper DeJean is also notable -- while his absence will be felt most keenly on the defensive side of the ball (and on special teams), there's a good chance that Iowa would have had a handful of plays for him to run on offense in a game like this. His cameo appearances on offense in the Northwestern and Rutgers games suggested that the coaches were developing some things with him in mind.

This is Brian Ferentz's penultimate game as Iowa's offensive coordinator and playcaller and he should look to channel the same energy he had in his greatest moments as OC -- the 55-24 win over Ohio State in 2017 or the 49-24 win over USC in the 2019 Holiday Bowl. It was not just "same old Iowa" plays in those games and the Hawkeyes were all the better for it. Go out swinging, Brian.

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