Brecht Watch 2023: Bats on Shoulders

First pitch strikes have emerged as a recurring problem for Brody Brecht, Iowa's start sophomore pitcher, in recent appearances. Those same first pitch issues popped up again in his two appearances on the mound this week, a relief appearance against Illinois State (a 7-4 Iowa victory) and a start against Ohio State (a 16-9 Iowa win). Brecht faced 19 batters across those two outings -- and only two of those hitters swung at the first strike they were thrown.

Let’s dig into those outings and Brecht’s issues throwing first-pitch strikes.

vs. Illinois State: 1 IP, 0 K, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 ER
vs. Ohio State: 2.2 IP, 2 K, 4 BB, 2 HBP, 3 H, 2 ER

vs. Illinois State

Pitch Count: 12
Balls: 4
Strikes: 8
Strikes Looking: 4
Contact Strikes: 4
Whiffs: 0
First Pitch Strikes: 2/3
Batters that Took a First Strike: 3/3
Play Results: groundout, groundout, flyout

vs. Ohio State

Pitch Count: 66
Balls: 36
Strikes: 30
Strikes Looking: 14
Contact Strikes: 13
Whiffs: 3
First Pitch Strikes: 6/16
Batters that Took a First Strike: 11/13—three batters walked on 4 pitches

Last week, a big theme of Brecht’s start against Penn State was that the Nittany Lion hitters weren’t swinging until Brecht showed them he could throw strikes. Brecht drew just four swings in his 34 pitches that game.

Illinois State and Ohio State both followed that same approach against Brecht this week. All three Illinois State batters Brecht faced took a strike before they swung. Only two of the 13 batters Brecht threw a strike to against Ohio State swung at the first strike.

The big difference between Brecht’s two outings this week—aside from length—was his success at getting a first strike. Against Illinois State, he threw a first pitch strike to 2 of the 3 batters he faced. Against Ohio State, he only threw first pitch strikes to 6 of 16 batters.

The results from those at bats continues to show just how important the first pitch is to Brecht.

Results from first-pitch strike plate appearances: 2-8, strikeout, double play, single, double

Results from first-pitch ball plate appearances: 1-5, strikeout, double, 4 walks, 2 hit by pitches

When Brecht started a plate appearance with a strike, he allowed a baserunner 25% of the time. When he started with a ball, it was 63.6%.

But even those numbers don’t tell the full story. On the double that came on a first-pitch strike plate appearance, the ball was hit slowly down the line, but hit the back of the base. It then squirted beyond the third baseman and into the outfield. Had it not hit the bag, it likely would have been an infield single.

The single on a first-pitch strike came on another slowly hit ball where shortstop Michael Seegers chose to throw to third to try cut down a runner on base. If Seegers had thrown to first instead, he might’ve had a play and another out.

Those two unfortunate hits were the only damage against Brecht when he got a first pitch strike.

Given his ongoing control issues, opponents seem likely to continue to take pitches against Brecht until they see a strike for the foreseeable future.

If Brecht realizes the hitters won’t be swinging, though, getting that first strike could become easier. At this point, there is no need to try to hit a corner with that first pitch. If the hitters aren’t swinging, Brecht could instead try to get more of the plate to ensure the pitch is a strike. Even if a hitter tries to ambush him, his stuff is good enough that it’s hard to barrel even if he leaves it over the middle.

Brecht didn’t get deep into the Ohio State start, but overall his command was better in the game. Against Penn State, many of his pitches were missing by feet, not inches. Overall, Brecht’s misses in this game were closer. If the umpire had a wider zone, his outing could have gone very differently.

Brecht also suffered from a bit of bad luck. He was ahead 1-2 on the first hitter of the game before hitting him on slider that broke just a little too much. He walked the second hitter on a 3-2 count. Either of those plate appearances could have ended in a strikeout, which would have made his first inning much smoother.

The third inning was when he conceded that fluke double and infield single to shortstop that were noted previously. Brecht was throwing strikes to both hitters and got the weak contact he wanted, but the results just didn’t quite go as expected. Had one of those plays been an out instead, he would have been able to escape the inning without surrendering a run.

For much of the season, Brecht has controlled his slider better than his fastball. If he was having control issues, he often turned to the slider to get a pitch over the plate.

However, against Ohio State, it was the slider that was giving him problems. He wasn't able to locate it consistently, and his widest misses were all on sliders. His two strikeouts also came via fastballs, even though the slider has been his normal put-away pitch for most of the season.

On the one hand, Brecht being able to locate his fastball better is great news. If he can locate it consistently that should help with his first pitch strike issues and should help set up the slider more easily.

On the other hand, he also needs the slider to get swings and misses. If he can’t locate the slider, hitters can sit on his fastball, a pitch that they should be able to get good contact on more easily.

Brecht struggled again in his start against Ohio State on Friday, but he was also throwing more competitive pitches in the outing and deal with a bit of bad luck in a few instances.

The key to his outings continues to be first-pitch strikes. Against Illinois State, he went 2/3 on first-pitch strikes and breezed through a clean inning. Against Ohio State, he threw just 6/16 first pitch strikes and struggled. How well he's able to resolve that issue will decide how his sophomore season wraps up.