BrechtWatch 2023: The Penn State Debacle
In 1965, the fledgling New York Mets selected a flame-throwing right-handed high school pitcher from Texas in the 12th round of the Major League Baseball draft. That pitcher, of course, was Nolan Ryan—a paradigm-shattering pitcher who would became MLB’s all-time leader in strikeouts, walks, and no-hitters.
Fast-forward to the 2001 MLB Draft, and the Kansas City Royals thought they'd found the next Nolan Ryan with the 9th overall pick: a flame-throwing right-handed high-schooler from Texas named Colt Griffin, the first high school pitcher documented throwing over 100 mph. At his best, Griffin was unhittable, just like Ryan. But also like young Ryan, he had control issues, too.
Most baseball fans haven’t heard of Colt Griffin. He battled control issues for five minor league seasons and finally retired due to injuries at just 23 years old. He never got beyond Double-A, and in his minor league career he had more career walks (278) than strikeouts (271).
Iowa pitcher Brody Brecht has undeniably elite arm talent as a pitcher. At his very best this season, he has looked like a college version of Ryan—a lot of strikeouts, a few walks, but generally unhittable. Unfortunately, today against Penn State his performance looked more like a Colt Griffin outing. The Hawkeyes won the game, 9-6, but Brecht struggled in his brief outing on the mound.
Brecht’s Line
0.2 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, 1 H, 4 R, 4 ER
Beyond the Box Score
Pitch Count: 34
Balls: 22
Strikes: 12
Strikes Looking: 8
Contact Strikes: 3
Whiffs: 1
First Pitch Strikes: 3/8
Penn State 1st Time Through Order: 1-3, 5 BB, 1 K, single, 4 ER
Penn State 2nd Time Through Order: NA
Penn State 3rd Time Through Order: NA
The Mirage
Maybe the strangest thing about Brody Brecht is how fast he can lose control. Against Penn State’s first batter—Kyle Hannon—Brecht looked ready for an excellent day on the mound.
Brecht's first two fastballs found the zone for strikes that Hannon took. On 0-2, Brecht threw a slider that broke out of the zone. Hannon swung helplessly, and Brecht had his first strikeout on just three pitches.
Then everything fell apart.
The Downfall
Brecht threw 19 pitches to the next 4 hitters — and an incredible 16 of them were balls. A handful of batters into the game, it was clear the Penn State hitters were starting every at-bat taking pitches. Despite that, Brecht couldn’t find the plate the vast majority of the time, and not only walked the bases loaded but walked the first run in.
The Nittany Lions' second run scored when Brecht threw a ball high to the sixth hitter—Josh Spiegel—and it bounced off of catcher Cade Moss’s glove to the backstop.
Brecht did battle back to retire Spiegel on a groundout, but a third run scored on the play. He then gave up another walk and a single, and his day was done after just 34 pitches.
Bats on the Shoulders
Taking strikes against a wild pitcher isn’t a novel concept, but Penn State took it to another level, swinging just 4 times against Brecht in his 34 pitches.
Given Penn State’s success, it is likely that Iowa’s future opponents will make Brecht throw one, or even two, strikes before they contemplate swinging. When his command is as bad as it was today, that is a sound strategy. There’s no need to give Brecht free strikes by swinging at a ball out of the zone.
That philosophy also gives Brecht an opportunity, however. Against Nebraska, Brecht dominated when he threw first-pitch strikes. And as mentioned, Brecht got an easy three-pitch strikeout today when he threw a first-pitch strike to Hannon at leadoff.
If teams do keep their bats on their shoulders against Brecht in future starts, it also gives him an easy opportunity to get ahead in counts if his control cooperates.
Uncertain Outcomes
Perhaps the most interesting part of the Brody Brecht experience is that his potential outcomes are so vast. If he harnesses his arm's legendary power, he could become one of the best — and most valuable — pitchers in Major League Baseball.
And yet even his draft positioning next year is far from certain. It’s easy to see a team falling in love with his stuff and his potential and taking him high in the first round. It’s also easy to see teams being wary of starts like today, and pushing him down their draft boards until the upside warrants the risk. It's up to Brecht to maintain scouts' trust in him and regain his command of the plate moving forward.