Brecht Watch 2023: The Husker Roller Coaster

Against #1 LSU in late February, Brody Brecht had one of the strangest lines you will see: 3 1/3 innings, 1 hit, 2 runs, 6 strikeouts, 8 walks. Brecht battled his command and a very tight strike zone all game, but was nearly unhittable and kept Iowa in the game with some timely strikeouts. Brecht’s performance in Iowa's 11-6 win over Nebraska on Friday night was similar in many respects.

4.0+ IP, 7 Ks, 7 BB, 1 HBP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER

Pitch Count: 101
Balls: 49
Strikes: 52
Strikes Looking: 23
Contact Strikes: 19
Whiffs: 10
First-Pitch Strikes: 11/21
Nebraska 1st Time Through Order: 0-5, 3 Ks, 4 BB
Nebraska 2nd Time Through Order: 1-7, 4 Ks, 2 BB, single, 2 runs
Nebraska 3rd Time Through Order: 1-1, 1 BB, 1 HBP, double

First-pitch strikes are one area where traditional baseball wisdom and analytics align. Traditional wisdom said getting ahead was vital for pitchers. Analytics also show that pitches do much better when they get ahead in the count. Brecht’s outing tonight shows why getting ahead is vitally important:

Plate Appearance Results with First-Pitch Strikes: 0-9, 5 Ks, BB, HBP
Plate Appearance Results with First-Pitch Balls: 2-4, 2 Ks, 6 BB, single, double

When Brecht started plate appearances with a strike, he was nearly perfect. That’s true even with the command issues he had all night.

When Brecht started the plate appearance with a ball, batters reached base 80% of the time.

Brecht’s first two innings shows how thin the margins are in baseball. Brecht went 3-2 to the second batter of the game—Casey Burnham—then threw a good breaking ball that looked like a strike. The umpire disagreed and Burnham had a 1-out walk. He advanced to second on a wild pitch and to third on a flyout. Brecht then walked the 4th hitter, who stole second. He did bear down and get out of the jam with a strikeout, but the inning was a lot longer and more stressful than it could’ve been.

If the umpire had called strike three on the 3-2 pitch to Burnham, Brecht likely would’ve started the game with a 1-2-3 inning on 13 pitches. Instead, he started with a jam on second and third and threw 25 pitches in the inning.

Brecht started the second inning with a walk, then fell behind the second batter, Josh Caron, and it looked like trouble was brewing again. Brecht threw a pitch that looked like it was destined for the backstop. The runner on first broke for second, but catcher Cade Moss managed to snag the ball and throw down to first. The runner tried to retreat back to first, but was late and Iowa had an easy out.

The second batter walked. If the ball to Caron had been a couple inches further out, Moss would have missed it and Nebraska would have had runners on 1st and 2nd base with no outs. Instead, Brecht had one out in the inning and got two more without further trouble.

In the third, Brecht showed just how good he can be with solid command. In the inning, he started two of three batters with a strike. The results were exactly what Brecht wants: a strikeout and two weak groundballs, ending the inning in just 12 pitches.

Brecht’s fourth inning demonstrated thatcontrol doesn't just mean how many walks a pitcher allows. He started the inning with two walks, but then struck out the next two before surrendering an infield single.

For most pitchers with that sequencing, it would have meant that the bases were loaded. For Brecht in the fourth, though, it meant two runs scored for Nebraska.

After the two walks, Brecht threw a wild pitch that advanced the Nebraska baserunners to second and third. A second wild pitch scored the runner on third and got the other to third — who then scored on the infield single.

Even with Brecht’s control issues, his fourth had a shot at staying clean had he not thrown two pitches to the backstop.

After four innings of work, Brecht's pitch count was high at 88, but he’s also the team’s ace. His stuff is nearly unhittable. And baseball is a game where pitchers succeed far more often than hitters do. Accordingly, Brecht coming out for the fifth inning would have been an automatic decision — prior to the analytics era of college baseball.

Analytics tell us that hitters do much better against starters the third time through the order. That, combined with Brecht’s struggles to find the strike zone all night, might have cautioned against sending Brecht out for the fifth.

Coach Rick Heller rolled the dice with Brecht in the fifth, and paid a price for it. Brecht allowed a leadoff double after starting the count 3-0. He then hit the second batter and walked the third before ending his night. Reliever Jack Whitlock did an admirable job of getting through the rest of the inning without significant damage, but Nebraska still cut a 6-2 deficit to 6-4 by the end of the inning.

It’s easy to criticize the decision to bring Brecht back for the 5th in hindsight. In the moment, the decision is much tougher. Iowa still had most of the three-game series to play. An extra inning from Brecht could’ve meant a more rested bullpen for Saturday and Sunday.

This was far from Brecht’s best game. He was hurt some by a tight strike zone, but threw too many uncompetitive pitches. And yet he still left with Iowa in the lead with a great chance to win the series opener, which the Hawks did 11-6.