Final Four Preview: Iowa vs. South Carolina

WHO: #1 South Carolina Gamecocks (36-0 overall, 16-0 SEC)
WHEN: Friday, March 31 at approx. 8:30 PM CT
WHERE: American Airlines Arena (Dallas, Texas)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
LINE: South Carolina -11.5

In the buildup to the 2014 World Cup final, some billed the game between Argentina and Germany as “Messi vs. The Machine.” Argentina’s Lionel Messi was the best player in the world at the time, but the Germans looked unstoppable. In their semifinal game, they defeated World Cup host Brazil 7-1. The score was 5-0 within 30 minutes.

Caitlin Clark is the best player in college basketball this year, but South Carolina has looked just as unstoppable as that German team. The Gamecocks are 36-0 on the season. Only five of those victories were even within single digits. They have Herhoopstats.com’s #2 ranked offense and #1 ranked defense. They score 80.5 ppg, while holding opponents to just 51.1 ppg. They have their own star player in Aliyah Boston, who is widely expected to be the #1 overall pick in the next WNBA Draft.

Despite all of that, history has shown that any team can be beaten, no matter how good. In that 2014 World Cup final, Germany did win, but it had to go to extra time to do so. The mighty Germans didn’t score until the 112th minute. Argentina had shots to win in regulation.

You don’t have to look far to find examples where the underdog did win. Every sports fan has heard Al Michaels’ call to end the Miracle on Ice. Mike Tyson looked completely unstoppable before he was beaten by little known Buster Douglas. Leicester City–with a fraction of the budget of the big clubs–won the Premier League in 2016.

Iowa beating South Carolina might not rise to the level of those historic upsets, but toppling the Gamecock machine would still be close. But it's possible because Clark and the Hawkeyes are playing their best basketball after a season full of adjustments and growth -- and because when you have a team full of shooters, you always have a shooter’s chance.

6’5" Post Aliyah Boston -- 13.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.0 bpg, 59.5% 2FG

During Player of the Year discussions, Iowa fans were always quick to cite Boston’s stat line as a reason she shouldn’t win the award. While it’s true that Boston’s stats aren’t eye-popping, that says more about South Carolina’s overall team quality.

Boston averages just 26 minutes per game because South Carolina has blown out most of its opponents. She takes just 9 shots per game despite being the team’s most efficient scorer because everyone on her team can score. She doesn’t grab more rebounds or block more shots because her teammates are also great at rebounding and blocking shots.

Simply put, Boston is the best all-around player Iowa has played this year. She might be the best all-around player Iowa has played in a long time. We don’t need to diminish Boston’s greatness to say that Clark is also great. Instead, we can appreciate that both get to show the world what they can do on the same floor in the Final Four.

5’9" Guard Zia Cooke -- 15.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.0 apg, 43.0% 2FG, 35.2% 3FG

Cooke is really good at one thing: scoring. But for a South Carolina team full of elite posts, scoring from a guard is exactly what it needs. Cooke attempts nearly 13 field goals per game, which is four more than Boston and six more than Kamilla Cardoso. Five of those attempts come from three-point range. While Cooke’s three-point percentage is good, her percentage on two-pointers isn’t great. If Iowa can force her off the three-point line and into long two-point jumpers, that would be ideal.

6’1" Guard Brea Beal -- 6.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.8 apg, 46.5% 2FG, 39.6% 3FG.

Beal’s offensive numbers aren’t why she makes this list. With Beal, it’s all about her defense. The Rock Island native is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Her defensive prowess might well earn her a spot in the WNBA next year despite pedestrian offensive production.

Louisville struggled so much to stop Clark in the Elite Eight because its guards were all 5’7" or smaller, and the forwards it tried to match her with weren’t quick enough to keep up. Beal is 6’1" and should be fast enough to stick with Clark.

That said, Clark isn’t like any other perimeter shooter. You have to pick her up further out than anyone, and if you cheat to try to contest a step-back or prevent a drive, she’ll just do the opposite and score anyway.

If Beal does have some success on Clark initially, it will be fascinating to see how Iowa adjusts to free her. Clark is very good at using ball screens, but doesn't often use screens to free herself off of the ball.

6’7" Center Kamilla Cardoso -- 9.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg, 55% 2FG

On the vast majority of teams, Cardoso would be entrenched as the starting 5. For South Carolina, she hasn’t started a game and averages just 18.5 minutes per game. Cardoso’s production in that time is scary on both ends. She’s a good scorer in the paint, one of the best rebounders in the country, and also one of the nation’s best rim protectors.

On South Carolina’s offensive end, the Gamecocks grab a staggering 48.7% of available rebounds. By comparison, Iowa grabs just 27% of available rebounds available on offense.

South Carolina does a lot of things well as a team, but rebounding—especially offensive rebounding—is perhaps most important to its success.

Both Boston and Cardoso are excellent offensive rebounders, but the trouble for Iowa is that it’s a team effort. Seven Gamecocks average at least one offensive rebound per game. Meanwhile, only three Hawkeyes average at least one per game.

Iowa’s defensive rebounding rate has actually been very good this year -- 12th nationally. But to truly push South Carolina this year, the Hawkeyes will need to rebound better than they have all season against the best rebounding team in the country.

There are two ways to limit a good scoring post like Monika Czinano who doesn’t take many jump shots or play on the perimeter. The first is tactical. If you double a post with one player in front and one player behind, it becomes nearly impossible to get them the ball. Even if you do, they’re just as likely to be tied up as to score out of the set.

Iowa has faced many of those tactical doubles this year. By now, the Hawks know that those doubles lead to shooters open on the perimeter and know exactly where to find them.

The other way to limit a good post is with a great post defender. Iowa hasn’t faced too many of those this season. In Boston and Cardoso, the Hawks will face two of the best in college basketball.

Because of the presence of Boston and Cardoso, Czinano’s influence on this game might be limited. Even with all of her post moves, she will likely struggle to score over taller and more athletic posts that are also great shot blockers.

Outside of the post, one bit of good news for Iowa is that South Carolina doesn’t generate a lot of turnovers. The Gamecocks' 8.4% steal rate ranks 237th nationally. Coming off a stretch of three of the best turnover-forcing defenses in the country in Georgia, Colorado, and Louisville, not having to worry as much about steals will be a welcome relief, if small.

South Carolina also has a higher foul rate than Iowa. The difference isn’t huge—and South Carolina has far more depth than Iowa—but Beal or Boston getting into foul trouble could give Iowa a big boost.

Many teams have defended South Carolina by clogging the paint and forcing the Gamecocks to shoot over the top. That strategy does make sense: Boston and Cardoso are taller than most posts and are very good at scoring in and around the paint. South Carolina’s 31.5% three-point shooting percentage ranks 153rd nationally and the Gamecocks' three-point rate ranks 354th, so clearly they would prefer to attack the basket.

On the other hand, Cooke shoots pretty well from three at volume, and Beal shoots very well at a lower rate. Teams have also tried the clog-the-paint strategy all year, and no one has yet beaten the Gamecocks.

When Iowa plays its player-to-player defense, I expect Marshall will match with Cooke. Clark and Martin will match with South Carolina’s other guards and will likely sag well off of them to help with post defense and rebounding.

I also think Iowa might try the triangle-and-two defense that worked so well against Louisville. Slowing down Hailey Van Lith in the second half was a big reason Iowa got the separation it did in that game, and the triangle-and-two was the defense Iowa used to do it. If Marshall can slow down Cooke a bit, that would go a long way in making a victory achievable.

Another benefit of the triangle-and-two is that the zone defenders are essentially camped in the lane. In the triangle-and-two Iowa can clog the lane while also playing man defense on South Carolina’s best shooters.

Finally, the triangle-and-two gives Clark a good opportunity to read and react on rebounds. If Iowa is going to win, Clark is likely going to have to grab a lot of boards while McKenna Warnock and Czinano try to South Carolina’s bigs at bay.

I don’t expect Iowa to play too much 2-3 zone in this game. It’s hard to rebound out of a zone under normal circumstances -- and South Carolina is anything but normal.

Let it fly. Against Louisville, Czinano only attempted two shots. Iowa won because the Hawkeyes made 16 three-pointers and found some easy twos in transition. I expect Czinano to struggle to score again in this game. Finding easy twos in transition will likely be much more difficult against South Carolina’s defense. That leaves three-point shooting as Iowa’s possible salvation. The Hawks should shoot open threes when they get a chance to and hope that this is one of their better shooting nights.