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Published Sep 22, 2023
Five Things We're Watching: Iowa vs Penn State
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Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

Iowa kicks off the Big Ten portion of the season with what appears to be its toughest test of the season: a night game at Happy Valley against Penn State (3-0). What will be the keys to the game for the Hawkeyes against the Nittany Lions? Here are five key things:

CAN IOWA RUN THE BALL?

Iowa is coming off its best rushing performance of the season -- and its best since running for 350+ yards against Middle Tennessee State in 2019 -- against Western Michigan. Iowa running backs ran for 249 yards and three touchdowns on 35 carries, 7.1 yards per carry. But running for 250 yards on Western Michigan is one thing; doing that against Penn State is another challenge entirely.

That said, so far this season Penn State's run defense has been good, but not yet elite. PSU ranks 38th nationally in run defense at 102 yards per game and 47th nationally at 3.3 yards per carry. West Virginia ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns against PSU in the season opener.

The team that wins the rushing battle has won five of the last six Iowa-Penn State games (the only exception was 2018, when Iowa slightly out-gained Penn State on the ground, 135 to 118, but lost the game, 30-24). If Iowa can build on last week's standout performance against WMU and have success against a much stronger defensive front, they should have an excellent opportunity to win the game.


CAN THE IOWA GET PRESSURE ON THE QB?

Through three games this season, the Iowa defense ranks 120th in sacks, with just three total for the year. (Penn State, by comparison, ranks 15th nationally with 10 sacks so far.) Meanwhile, Penn State has allowed just two sacks this season, tied for 12th best nationally. So an Iowa defense that hasn't been able to sack the quarterback much faces an offensive line that doesn't give up many sacks -- that doesn't seem like a very favorable matchup for the Hawkeyes.

While it will certainly be a difficult matchup for Iowa, it's also one that maybe isn't as lopsided as the sack numbers might suggest. The Hawkeyes only have three sacks this season, but they have been credited with 11 QB hurries, which ranks fifth-best in the Big Ten (and just one behind Penn State, with 12). That's evidence to support the notion that Iowa has been able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, even if they haven't been able to bring them down for sacks and big negative yardage plays.

Still, that ability to generate pressure will be put to the test against a generally strong Penn State offensive line that's allowed just two sacks (as well as 8 QB hurries). The ability of Joe Evans, Deontae Craig, and Ethan Hurkett to bring pressure from the edge will be critical in this game -- but this also looks like a game where judicious use of blitzes (particularly from Nick Jackson) could have a large impact as well.

Iowa's secondary is good, but if Drew Allar has all day to sit in the pocket and find open receivers, it's going to be a long day for Iowa's defense. The Hawkeyes will need to find ways to bring pressure and get Allar off-balance and attempting difficult throws. And Iowa's ability to force mistakes from Allar will probably hinge on the defense's ability to generate pressure.

THE TURNOVER BATTLE

Penn State ranks third in the country in turnover margin, at +7 on the season. The Nittany Lions have forced seven turnovers (five interceptions and two fumble recoveries) this season and allowed none. Iowa ranks 60th in the nation in turnover margin, at 0 on the season. The Hawkeyes have forced three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble recovery) this season and allowed three (all interceptions).

The Iowa defense's turnover-forcing ability has been well-documented in recent years, but the turnovers have been slow to come so far this season (just three in three games). This game would be a good time for the Iowa defense to have a breakout game in the turnover-forcing department. The Hawkeyes have won the last two games against PSU and turnovers have played no small role in that -- Iowa finished +3 in turnover margin in those games, including a total of six interceptions.

The team that wins the turnover battle is 4-1 in the last six Iowa-Penn State games (the turnover margin was a push in 2018). Taking care of the ball will be key for Iowa's offense on Saturday night -- but the defense's ability to force turnovers from the Penn State offense may be even more important.


CAN CADE MCNAMARA OUTPLAY DREW ALLAR?

Drew Allar, Penn State's 4-star recruit turned starting quarterback, has been one of the most hyped QB prospects in the nation since setting foot in Happy Valley. After a cameo role last season backing up Sean Clifford, Allar has taken over as the starting quarterback for Penn State this season. So far the results have been good, but not quite stellar.

Allar is 59/88 on the season (67% completion) for 737 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He's averaging a healthy 8.4 yards per attempt. He's also coming off his worst game of the season -- against Illinois last Saturday, Allar finished just 16/33 (48.5%) for 208 yards, with no touchdowns (or interceptions).

That effort came against an Illini pass defense that hasn't hit the same heights that their stingy secondary did last season -- the Illini rank 97th nationally in yards allowed per game (242) and 62nd in yard per attempt (7.0). (They are allowed opponents to complete just 56.3% of their passes, 36th nationally.) That game was on the road in the unfriendly confines of Champaign, Illinois -- Allar should be more comfortable at home under the lights in Happy Valley. But the Iowa secondary will also be the toughest he's faced.

By the same token, though, the Penn State defense will also be the toughest defense that Cade McNamara has faced this season -- and he's also coming off his worst game of the season. McNamara finished 9/19 for 103 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions against Penn State. Now he'll be facing a Penn State defense that ranks 20th in yards allowed per game (165.3), 13th in completion percentage allowed (52.8%), 11th in interceptions (5), and 7th in QB rating allowed (92.1).

McNamara has a decided edge on Allar in big game experience (albeit at Michigan, not Iowa), but Allar will have the homefield advantage (and 100,000+ fans cheering for him rather than against him). Which quarterback better handles the pressure of the game -- and better rebounds from a so-so effort last week -- is likely to lead his team to victory on Saturday night.

SPECIAL PLAYS ON SPECIAL TEAMS

Arguably, the two biggest plays in the Iowa-Penn State series over the last 20 years are special teams plays -- at least from an Iowa perspective. In 2008, Daniel Murray drilled a 31-year old field goal to upset #3 Penn State in a kick that Iowa fans will never forget:

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A year later, Adrian Clayborn blasted through Penn State's punt protection and recorded perhaps the most memorable punt block in Iowa history:

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And just last week, special teams were what broke the game open for the Hawkeyes. Cooper DeJean's punt return set up Iowa's go-ahead touchdown in the second quarter, and Anterio Thompson's blocked punt led to a safety and, a few plays later, another touchdown put Iowa up double-digits and put the game out of reach.

On paper, Iowa seems to have a slight edge in special teams, both at kicker and punter and in the return game. Iowa's ability to make a big play in that aspect of the game could be the game-changing break they need to pull an upset.

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