I’m not really sure how this tradition started, but for more than a decade, I have given my fearless forecast for the Iowa football season on July 4th.
It may have been simply that it’s July 4th and content is usually hard to find, so I just decided to have some fun and create a bit of a conversation over the holiday.
Whatever the reason, a tradition was born and it continues in 2018.
This is the first time since 2011 that Iowa heads into a college football season coming off a win, following their victory over Boston College in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.
In 2018, Iowa will face six teams that played in a bowl game last season, including two in the non-conference slate of games.
Having said that, the Iowa schedule in 2018 is certainly manageable. First, there’s no Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State. Second, for the most part, nearly all of the Hawkeyes toughest contests this year will be played at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa will host Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska, who traditionally play the Hawkeyes pretty tough in most years. Iowa’s road schedule isn’t quite as challenging. The trip to Happy Valley is going to be a rough one, but during the Ferentz era, Iowa is 4-3 on the road at Penn State. The Hawkeyes also travel to Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois. Life on the road in the Big Ten is never easy, but those four games should be considered manageable. Iowa does play four of five on the road starting in October and that could present a landmine for the Hawkeyes.
On offense, Iowa returns seven starters, including starting quarterback Nate Stanley and the unit averaged 28.2 points per game. The Hawkeyes will certainly miss the dynamic play of running back Akrum Wadley, but the combination of sophomores Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin should be able to fill that void.
As is the case with every year, Iowa’s offensive success will be built around the play of the offensive line. Tackles Tristian Wirfs and Aleric Jackson, along with center Keegan Render will anchor the line, but there are questions at guard that will need to be resolved in August during fall camp.
Another positive for Iowa’s offense will be the presence of Noah Fant. The junior tight end had a breakout season in 2017 with 11 touchdown receptions. He will team with T.J. Hockenson to form perhaps the best tight end duo in the country. Nick Easley returns as Iowa’s leading receiver, but players like Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette will need to emerge.
On the defensive side, Iowa returns half of their starters from 2017. The key losses and holes to fill will be at linebacker, where Josey Jewell and company have moved on to chase their NFL dreams. Much like the offensive side of the ball, it all begins up front for Iowa and the Hawkeyes return three starters and nearly all of their two deep from last year. In the secondary, there’s a significant hole with the early departure of Josh Jackson, but the rest of the back end of the defense will be back for 2018.
Looking at special teams, Miguel Recinos returns after winning the placekicking job in fall camp. He connected on 11-13 field goals in 2017 along with all 44 PAT’s. The punting duties remain unsettled with Colten Rastetter and Ryan Gersonde set to compete for the job during fall camp. Last year, Iowa averaged 38.6 yards per punt and the net average was just 36.9 yards.
Now, let’s get to the actual prediction and please don’t run to Vegas to place bets on any of them because all of this is just a guess and I’m usually wrong. HA!
Sept. 1st – Northern Illinois – Did you know that Kirk Ferentz first win as Iowa’s head coach was against the Huskies? Ferentz will be seeking to officially pass Hayden Fry on the all-time Iowa wins list in the opener, so the circle is kind of complete in that regard. That is if Iowa beats Northern Illinois and that won’t be easy. The Huskies are generally considered to be the top team in the MAC this year and boast an explosive defensive end Sutton Smith, who had 29.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks last year. They also have a pretty good QB in Marcus Childers. This won’t be easy. I suspect Iowa pulls away in the second half for a fairly comfortable win. IOWA 30 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 20
Sept. 8th – Iowa State – The annual Cy-Hawk battle will take place in Iowa City this year after the Hawkeyes won a shootout 44-41 in overtime in Ames last year. While Iowa fans may not want to admit it, Matt Campbell’s program turned the corner last year, posting 8 wins, including a bowl victory over Memphis. David Montgomery is a really good back and the Cyclones will certainly benefit from the return of 6th year senior Kyle Kempt. Last year’s game was a classic in this series and I think this one will be too. Recinos wins it late with a field goal. IOWA 23 IOWA STATE 21
Sept. 15th – NORTHERN IOWA – I think the Hawkeyes have learned over the years that they cannot take the Panthers lightly. In 2009, Iowa needed back to back blocked field goals to hold on and win. Then in 2012, David Johnson nearly beat the Hawkeyes on his own. The Panthers have a solid squad that should be in the mix for another trip to the FCS playoffs, but I think Iowa will create some distance in the second half for a fairly comfortable victory. IOWA 35 NORTHERN IOWA 17
Sept. 22nd – WISCONSIN – The Hawkeyes will play their first four games of the 2018 season at home and the last one is easily the most important. If Iowa is going to win the Big Ten West this year, they have to beat Wisconsin. Iowa knows this. Brian Ferentz has said more than once. The Badgers bring an offensive line to Iowa City that might be the best in the conference. Most preseason magazines have four of their five offensive linemen on the first team and they have a monster back in Jonathon Taylor. Their defense seems to be plug and play at this point and they don’t seem to drop off at any point. I think there’s a good chance this game is at night. Will there be another evening of magic at Kinnick? WISCONSIN 24 IOWA 17
Oct. 6th - @MINNESOTA – After a bye week the Hawkeyes head to the Land of 1000 lakes to battle the rowers of the boat. After arriving from Western Michigan with a lot of bluster, P.J. Fleck found out that life in the Big Ten was going to be a challenge, going 5-7 in his first year. The Gophers have a dynamic WR in Tyler Johnson, but a lot of questions on the offensive line and at quarterback. Last year, Iowa won 17-10 and I expect another low scoring contest this year. IOWA 17 MINNESOTA 13
Oct. 13th - @ INDIANA – This sort of feels like a trap game for Iowa. Indiana always seems to play Iowa pretty tough in Bloomington and they have a pretty solid offense that could give the Hawkeyes some trouble. They added Arizona transfer Brandon Dawkins this spring and it will be interesting to see how things shake out at quarterback. The Hoosiers lost a lot of the defensive side of the ball and that’s always been a challenge for them over the years. IOWA 31 INDIANA 24
October 20th – MARYLAND – The Hawkeyes get a break from the road when they return to Kinnick to host the Terps. This is year three for head coach D.J. Durkin, so the folks in College Park are expecting the program to turn in the right direction after a 10-15 record the past two years. They had a great start last year, beating Texas in Austin, but injuries at quarterback really derailed their season. There’s talent on both sides of the ball, but the defense was bad last year, allowing 37 points per game. It will be a happy homecoming in Iowa City. IOWA 35 MARYLAND 24
Oct. 27th - @PENN STATE – The last time the Hawkeyes traveled to Happy Valley they experienced one of the uglier losses of the Ferentz era. The final score was 41-14 and honestly it wasn’t even that close. Iowa nearly upset the Nittany Lions last year in Iowa City, but a Trace McSorley touchdown pass on the final play of the game clinched the victory for Penn State. McSorley is back and Miles Sanders will try to fill the shoes of All American back Saquon Barkley. James Franklin has the Lions roaring again. It will be more competitive than the last trip, but hard to see a win here for Iowa. PENN STATE 31 IOWA 20
Nov. 3rd - @PURDUE – Last year the Boilers came into Iowa City and shocked the Hawkeyes. This year the Hawkeyes face the Boilermakers and it will be the back end of four road games in five weeks. In college football, that’s a pretty brutal stretch. Jeff Brohm had a very impressive first year at Purdue and he will have some really solid offensive weapons. However, they lost a lot of defense and they will not be strong on that side of the ball this year. Iowa should be motivated for revenge, but the end of this road gauntlet is pretty scary. PURDUE 27 IOWA 24
Nov. 10th – NORTHWESTERN – While Kirk Ferentz enters his 20th season in Iowa City, Pat Fitzgerald is the second longest tenured coach in the Big Ten heading into the 2018 campaign. Coach Fitz has been a bit of a thorn in Iowa’s side as a head coach. Ferentz is just 5-7 against Fitzgerald since 2006. The Wildcats return starting QB Clayton Thorson, but he is coming back from a torn ACL in the Music City Bowl. Northwestern should be pretty decent, but Iowa will be ready for a bounce back win in a tough November game. IOWA 20 NORTHWESTERN 13
Nov. 17th - @ILLINOIS– This could be the end of the line for Lovie Smith. The former Chicago Bear head coach enters his third year in Champaign and the Illini are riding a ten game losing streak and only five total wins in two years. I suspect that this will be the final home game of the Smith era at Illinois, so if his team is playing for something that would be it. In November in the Big Ten you need to be able to run the football and Iowa will be able to do that. IOWA 27 ILLINOIS 14
Nov 23rd – NEBRASKA – This will be the last Black Friday game in Iowa City for a couple of years before this series resumes on the final weekend in a few years. Like Kirk Ferentz, I’ve warmed to playing this game on the Friday after Thanksgiving. This will be the first trip to Iowa City for Scott Frost as Nebraska’s head coach. If things go well for the Huskers, my sense is they could be either playing to be bowl eligible or trying to improve their place in the bowl pecking order. Iowa has had the Huskers number in recent years and I think that will continue. IOWA 30 NEBRASKA 21
That leaves the Hawkeyes with a 9-3 overall record and 6-3 in Big Ten play. It’s unlikely that Iowa will be able to qualify for a trip to Indianapolis to face the Big Ten East champion unless they beat Wisconsin.
As far as a bowl game, I think that would put the Hawkeyes and their fans in line for a long awaited return to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl against a Pac-12 opponent. The Holiday Bowl has wanted Iowa back since they returned as a Big Ten bowl game and they would be thrilled to see the black and gold invade the area.
