The movie Moneyball (and the book it adapts) covers the Oakland Athletics and depicts the lead-up to the 2002 season (as well as the season itself). In the movie, the Oakland front office debates how to replace several big stars that left in the off-season.
In one of the movie's most memorable scenes, A's scouts discuss needing to replace so many doubles, home runs, etc. from the departed players. A's general manager Billy Beane and assistant GM Peter Brand challenge the scouts to think differently about the problem. The A's didn't need to replace every double and home run -- they just needed to score runs. And there are many different ways to score runs.
Iowa faced a similar dilemma this off-season. Senior leaders McKenna Warnock and Monika Czinano combined to score 28 points per game as Iowa's starting 4 and 5 last season. But those positions don't only need to score points in order to help Iowa win basketball games.
Iowa will hope that its options at the 4 and 5 will play better defense and grab more rebounds than Warnock and Czinano -- and that they will also score enough points for Iowa's team to be as good or better on both ends of the floor than it was last year.
Let's review Iowa's options this season at the 4 and 5 positions. The stats are from HerHoopStats.
Power Forward (4)
Hannah Stuelke
6'2" -- Sophomore -- Cedar Rapids, Iowa
2022-2023 Production Per Game: 6.5 points, 0.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 0.5 steals
2023-2023 Shooting Percentages: 2PT: 62.7%, 3PT: 16.7%, FT: 46.0%
In 2021 Michigan star Naz Hillmon was named Big Ten Player of the Year. It was the only interruption in an ongoing run where Iowa players (Megan Gustafson x2, Kathleen Doyle, Caitlin Clark x2) have won Big Ten Player of the Year in five of the last six seasons.
Michigan went to its first Sweet Sixteen in 2021, then Hillmon led the Wolverines to their first Elite Eight in 2022. Why mention Hillmon in a section about Stuelke? Well, here are Hillmon's stats per 40 minutes from her freshman season:
22.6 points per 40
12.0 rebounds per 40
1.8 assists per 40
1.8 steals per 40
62.8% from 2
And here are Stuelke's stats per 40 minutes from her freshman season:
20.0 points per 40
12.0 rebounds per 40
1.7 assists per 40
1.5 steals per 40
62.7% from 2
As you can see, the numbers are shockingly similar.
Stuelke and Hillmon have many similarities in their respective games as well. Both are slightly undersized as posts, but significantly more athletic than most posts. Both like to score around the basket and rebound extremely well. Neither are rim protectors.
Their games aren't exactly the same, of course. Stuelke already shoots more from three-point range than Hillmon ever did at Michigan, while Hillmon was a much better free throw shooter during her college career at Michigan than Stuelke has displayed thus far at Iowa. But Hillmon can offer a good comparison as the type of player that Stuelke can be with continued hard work and good health.
The two big weaknesses to Stuelke's game right now are fouls and free throw shooting. She averaged 5.0 fouls per 40 minutes last year, which will be a big problem if she averages 25-30 minutes this season. Foul trouble is something many freshmen players struggle with, though, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Stuelke significantly improve in that area this season.
Free throws are another matter. Stuelke shot just 46.0% from the line last season, and went just 8/15 in Iowa's two scrimmages, though six of her misses came in outdoor conditions at the Crossover at Kinnick game.
In the 1990s and early 2000s Hack-a-Shaq became a familiar strategy late in games or whenever Shaquille O'Neal got the ball in good position. Until Stuelke becomes more automatic from the line, we might see Hack-a-Hannah from opponents this season.
At Media Day, Iowa head coach Lisa Bluder thought we would see an improved Stuelke this year: "I think everyone saw last year how good, how athletic, how fast Hannah Stuelke was. But this year I think over the summer she became a better basketball player, and that’s what we needed for her to become, and I think now she understands the game better. Her shot is better."
Stuelke will be Iowa's starter at the 4, though she is also an option at the 5. Bluder discussed her versatility at Media Day: "I think that we can use Hannah at the power forward, or if we want to go fast, we can also use her at the center position."
If Stuelke moves to the 5, Iowa will likely play Martin or Affolter at the 4 and try to outrun and outshoot teams. The lineup likely won't work well for long against bigger teams, but could be a good change of pace in the right scenarios.
Center (5)
Addison O'Grady
6'3" -- Junior -- Aurora, Colorado
2022-2023 Production Per Game: 2.0 points, 0.2 assists, 1.4 rebounds, 0.3 blocks
2023-2023 Shooting Percentages: 2PT: 61.4%, FT: 50.0%
In 2019-20 Iowa faced the monumental task of replacing Megan Gustafson. Gustafson was the program's all-time leading scorer and one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball history.
But Iowa did replace her and Monika Czinano became one of the top scorers in program history in her own right. She became just as efficient scoring the ball as Gustafson, and helped lead Iowa to heights even Gustafson couldn't reach.
O'Grady won't be the scoring threat that Czinano was for Iowa -- she isn't nearly as dominant in the low post. But she can be an efficient scorer. Her 61.4% shooting on 2-point attempts last year isn't too far off Czinano's 67.6%. And O'Grady has had time to further refine her post moves as well.
On the other end of the floor, O'Grady has a clear advantage over Czinano. She's a better rebounder than Czinano ever was, which she demonstrated effectively against DePaul, grabbing 14 rebounds in 19 minutes. She can also be a more effective rim protector than Czinano. Czinano never averaged more than 0.8 blocks per 40 minutes in her Iowa career and averaged just 0.4 and 0.6 blocks per 40 in her final two seasons at Iowa.
In comparison, O'Grady has averaged 3.3 and 2.2 blocks per 40 in her two seasons at Iowa so far. O'Grady might also be able to be more aggressive on defense this year because Iowa has solid depth behind her if she gets into foul trouble.
Last year Czinano averaged 27.9 minutes per game at the 5. O'Grady might not play as many minutes this season, but she still figures to average more than 20 minutes per game as Iowa's starting 5.
Bench Contributors
Sharon Goodman
6'3" -- Redshirt Junior -- Lime Springs, Iowa
2020-2021 Production Per Game: 3.7 points, 0.1 assists, 2.1 rebounds, 0.5 blocks
2020-2021 Shooting Percentages: 2PT: 55.0%, FT: 82.8%
Back in the 2020-21 season, Goodman looked like the heir apparent to Monika Czinano at the 5. Then she lost the next season to a torn ACL, and fell behind O’Grady on the depth chart. Goodman returned last season, but only played in 13 games and didn’t look like her freshman self.
Goodman is further removed from that ACL injury now, and has looked solid in Iowa’s two scrimmages. She will likely get some minutes each game as Iowa's backup 5, though O'Grady and Stuelke seem likely to get the bulk of the minutes at the 5 this season.
A.J. Ediger
6'2" -- Junior -- Hudsonville, Michigan
Freshman season: 51 minutes
Sophomore season: 54 minutes
For a brief period last year, Ediger was Iowa’s backup 5. She played hard in the role, but is a little undersized for the position and didn’t stand out.
She played reserve minutes against DePaul, then sat out the Clarke game with an injury. Based upon that usage and the depth in front of her, it seems unlikely that Ediger will play a significant role this season barring injury.
Jada Gyamfi
6'1" -- Sophomore -- Johnston, Iowa
Freshman year: 27 minutes
Gyamfi and what she can contribute to this Iowa team is still mostly a mystery. She came to Iowa as a guard/forward that seemed capable of playing the 4 in a similar way to McKenna Warnock.
She played just 27 minutes last year, however, and has only played 10 minutes combined in Iowa's scrimmages. It seems unlikely at this point that she will play a significant role this season unless there are several injuries to the players ahead of her on the depth chart
Ava Jones
6'2" -- Freshman -- Nickerson, Kansas
Jones will not play for Iowa this season and might not ever play significant minutes for Iowa in her career. But Jones is still a vital part of Iowa's roster.
For anyone who doesn't know, Jones has overcome tremendous obstacles to simply to get to Iowa. Her determination and perseverance to heal from the mental and physical pain she has suffered is extraordinary.
For now, the Iowa staff is focused on helping Jones heal and making sure she does well academically.
