No. 16 Iowa 94, No. 14 Michigan 85: Expectations

Do you ever think about how much expectations impact our perception? Expectations are something I've thought about a lot in the last few days regarding this Iowa women’s basketball team and the Caitlin Clark era.

Before Clark’s first game at Iowa, no one really knew what to expect. She was certainly a hyped recruit, but there are hyped recruits every year, and she wasn’t even ranked #1 in her class. Expectations for Iowa as a team were relatively low. The team had lost Megan Gustafson the year prior, and lost several key senior leaders like Kathleen Doyle and Makenzie Meyer from the 2019-2020 team.

The 2020-2021 team clearly blew its expectations out of the water. Clark played better than most freshman ever have, and Iowa advanced to the Big Ten Tournament final and made the Sweet 16.

Expectations were extremely high for the 2021-2022 team. Iowa returned most of its key contributors but was still relatively young. Suddenly there was discussion of Iowa being a Top 10 team and questions about whether Iowa could make the Elite Eight.

For much of last year, Iowa didn’t live up to those lofty expectations. The Hawks struggled in the non-conference and didn’t have a lot of big wins early in Big Ten play. Iowa even dropped out of the Top 25 completely for a short time.

Then Iowa went on a huge run in the final two weeks of the regular season to capture a share of the Big Ten regular season title. The Hawkeyes followed that by winning the Big Ten Tournament and earning a 2-seed (8th overall seed) in the NCAA Tournament. Suddenly expectations shifted again. Now Iowa was favored to make the Elite Eight and was a trendy Final Four selection by the media and fans alike.

We obviously know how last season ended. Now it seems like the general perception is that Iowa’s 2021-2022 season was a failure. People seem to focus on the Creighton upset and forget the Big Ten titles and the #8 overall seed. The expectations set at the very end of the year and our reaction to them not being met have shaped how one of the most successful seasons in program history is remembered.

And now we find ourselves largely in the same place we were in the middle of last year. Iowa came into this season ranked in the Top 5. Even pessimists largely thought Iowa’s worst-case scenario was a similar performance to last year.

15 games into the season, Iowa sits just 11-4 and ranked 16th in the country. The general perception is that Iowa is talented, but flawed. Many observers don’t see the Hawks getting past the Sweet 16 this year if they even get that far.

But Iowa’s losses to Kansas State, UConn, and Illinois were all extremely close. Change a couple plays in each of those games, and Iowa could easily be 14-1 and ranked 4th or 5th in the country. If that happened, Iowa would be in the discussion right now as a Final Four favorite. Clark would probably be the runaway frontrunner for National Player of the Year.

If that had happened, Iowa as a team really wouldn’t be any different, though. They would still have notable defensive lapses. They would still rely too heavily on Clark and Czinano to score. They would still get little or no bench production in some games.

The reality is that today a talented but flawed Iowa team traveled to Ann Arbor to face a talented but flawed Michigan team on the road. The result of the game would impact who might win a Big Ten title. It would certainly impact our perceptions and expectations of each team moving forward. But barring injury, it wouldn’t impact the teams themselves. Each would still be capable of the same things it was capable of before the game was played.

Iowa’s start to the game was almost disastrous. In the first six minutes, Iowa turned the ball over six times and surrendered 12 points to Michigan’s Laila Phelia. Yet the Hawks trailed only 14-11 thanks to three made three-pointers. Iowa took better care of the ball in the last few minutes of the quarter and was able to work the ball inside more. The Hawkeyes also slowed down Michigan’s offense a bit, but the Wolverines still led 20-18 after the first quarter.

Sloppy Iowa returned in the first couple minutes of the second quarter, and Michigan pushed the lead to 26-18 before an Iowa timeout. Michigan soon pushed the lead to 10, and Iowa looked out of it. Mental mistakes on both ends were killing the Hawks.

But Iowa was still the same team we’ve seen all season. Nothing had changed. The Hawks finally settled in offensively and stopped turning it over. The defense forced a few Michigan turnovers and started rebounding better. Iowa went on a 10-0 run and managed to tie the game at 31-31.

From there the two teams battled back and forth. Iowa took its first lead at 38-37, but Michigan seized it right back on the other end. Iowa made the last shot of the half, though, with Clark connecting on a step-back three to give Iowa a 41-39 halftime lead.

The early portion of the third quarter was back and forth, with both teams scoring enough that neither could get away. Around the mid-quarter timeout, Iowa subbed Clark and Czinano out for a breather, yet Iowa was able to maintain its lead. When Clark and Czinano returned, Iowa went on a quick run and pushed the lead to 62-51 before a Michigan timeout. Iowa held steady in the last few minutes, but a last second Michigan basket cut Iowa’s lead to 66-57 heading to the fourth quarter.

Iowa’s offense got rolling again to start the fourth quarter, and the lead grew to 73-59. But again Michigan fought back, and Iowa’s lead fell to 77-68 with 4:30 to play. Twice in the next couple possessions Michigan cut Iowa’s lead down to 7 points. Iowa immediately responded with a basket on the other end both times. Michigan cut the lead to 7 again with a 1:30 to play, but Gabbie Marshall immediately buried a three in response. Michigan kept hitting shots in the final minute, but Iowa responded by making free throws and the Hawks won 94-85 to earn Iowa's first win in Ann Arbor since 2014.

Clark led Iowa with 28 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists. Czinano was just as good, scoring 19 points, grabbing 5 rebounds, and dishing 8 assists. McKenna Warnock was steady as usual, scoring 14 points and shooting 4/6 from three. Kate Martin was the final Hawkeye in double-figures with 10. A box score for the game is here.

After Phelia torched Iowa early, the Hawks shifted to a 2-3 zone for most of the rest of the game. I wouldn’t say the 2-3 zone was great for Iowa defensively, but it did slow down Michigan's offense and it did one big thing for Iowa’s defense: limit Phelia’s driving. Phelia had 14 points in the first quarter, but scored just 2 the rest of the game.

All year, Iowa has struggled to get consistent contributions from everyone. Virtually every game, it seems like one or two of Iowa’s players barely contribute or one of Iowa’s stars is significantly below their usual production.

Today, basically everyone played well. Clark and Czinano were strong as usual. Martin and Marshall scored some big baskets. Molly Davis and Hannah Stuelke added scoring off the bench. And Warnock had some big plays defensively.

Iowa wasn’t perfect this game. The first quarter and a half was some of the worst basketball Iowa has played this year. But the balanced contributions they got the rest of the way helped them overcome that early 10-point deficit for a huge road win.

As mentioned in my preview, this was a game Iowa really needed in order to maintain a good shot at repeating as Big Ten regular season champions. Iowa’s road schedule is brutal, with trips to Ohio State, Indiana, and Maryland still remaining. With this win, Iowa stays just a game behind Ohio State for the conference lead.

This is also the biggest win on Iowa’s NCAA Tournament resume so far. Iowa’s only other ranked win so far came against Iowa State at home. The win at Michigan will almost certainly look better than the home win against Iowa State unless Michigan really falls off or unless Iowa State becomes a Top 5 team.

I thought this was one of the best refereed games of Iowa’s season. The refs allowed quite a bit of contact on both ends, but still called fouls that were obvious and never allowed the game to get out of hand. That is exactly the balance I want to watch. Hopefully Iowa can get this crew in more games this season.

Iowa returns to action on Wednesday, January 11 at 6:31 PM CT at Carver Hawkeye Arena against Northwestern. The game will be streamed on Big Ten Plus ($). Northwestern is just 6-8 on the season and 0-4 in Big Ten play.