No. 2 Seed Iowa 89, No. 3 Seed Maryland 84: The Trilogy

Some of the best boxing rivalries in history have ended in trilogies. Ali-Frazier, Gatti-Ward, Leonard-Duran. Great boxers often face each other three times because it takes three full fights for one fighter to distinguish themselves over their rival. One wins the first fight, the other wins the second, and everyone wants a third to determine once and for all who is best.

Maryland in Iowa are in a similar situation. Iowa dominated the first game between the two in Iowa City, winning 96-82 after leading by as many as 20. Maryland responded at home, blowing Iowa out 96-68.

For a multitude of reasons, each team got lucky in its decisive win and unlucky in its decisive loss.

And now just one question remains. Which team is truly better, Iowa or Maryland?

Iowa’s offense came out firing in the early first quarter. Caitlin Clark started a perfect 3-3 from three. Kate Martin had a couple early baskets, and Gabbie Marshall hit an early three. Maryland hit a few early jumpers, but couldn’t keep pace with Iowa’s offense. The Terps called timeout at the 5:14 mark with Iowa up 19-9.

Iowa pushed its lead to 12 right out of the timeout, but Maryland finally responded. The Terps went on a 6-0 run over the next couple minutes and got within 6 at 21-15. Then Iowa subbed Clark out to get her a break but the Hawks help their own, getting the better of play for the rest of the quarter and taking a 26-18 lead to the second quarter.

Maryland started the second quarter hot from the floor, but Iowa responded well getting a couple threes from Marshall and a step-back three from Clark. Maryland called for timeout again at the 7:03 mark with Iowa up 38-28.

Like the first quarter, Iowa quickly pushed the lead to 12 before Maryland went on another run. Maryland kept hitting the majority of its jumpers while Iowa went cold from the floor. Iowa called for time with 3:36 to go and the lead down to 40-36.

The two teams went back and forth from there, and Iowa led 47-42 with 1:09 to go when Clark took a charge on Diamond Miller and went down hard. Clark stayed on the floor for a minute or so and every Iowa fan held its breath. Clark did get back up, though, and checked back into the game with 30 seconds left. Neither team could score the rest of the way and Iowa led 47-42 at the half.

Maryland started out hot from the floor and quickly cut Iowa’s lead to 52-51. But in the process Miller—Maryland’s best player—hobbled to the locker room with an ankle injury. Iowa pushed the lead back to 57-51, but Maryland came right back and it was 57-55 at the under 5 timeout. Miller came back soon after the break.

The two teams battled back and forth to end the third quarter, and Iowa held a narrow 64-61 lead heading to the fourth.

The fourth quarter was exactly what the end of a great trilogy deserves: two great teams going shot-for-shot with each other. Iowa would make a basket on its end, only for Maryland to respond with a big bucket or a tough drive and free throws on the other end. McKenna Warnock and Marshall hit threes on back-to-back possessions and Iowa extended its lead to 76-68 with 5:48 to play, forcing a Maryland timeout.

As always, Maryland fought back out of the timeout, and narrowed Iowa’s lead to 76-73 with just under 4 to play. Clark then threaded a needle to find Czinano on an entry pass, and Czinano converted an and-1.

Maryland battled back again, getting a basket and two free throws to make it 79-77. Maryland then got a block and another basket, and suddenly the game was tied at 79 with 2 minutes left.

Clark missed a three at the end of the shot clock on the next possession, but Iowa got the rebound and Marshall hit another big three — her seventh of the game, tying a career high — to make it 82-79. Iowa then got a huge stop, and Clark found Czinano at the basket for an easy layup with a minute to go. Iowa then got a steal and Clark went 1-2 from the line to give Iowa an 85-79 lead with 45 seconds left. It seemed like finally Iowa might have the game in hand.

Maryland had other ideas. On the other end, Maryland’s three was blocked, but it fell right into the hands of a Maryland player who was fouled and hit both free throws. Iowa called timeout to advance the ball, but on the inbounds play Clark was whistled for an offensive foul. Maryland then hit a three with 25 seconds left to cut Iowa's lead back down to 85-84.

There was a scramble for the ball on Iowa’s next inbounds play, but Warnock got the ball and got fouled. She hit 2-2 to push the lead back to 87-84 with 23 seconds left.

Iowa played excellent defense at the three-point line on Maryland’s next possession, and the Terps only got a contested three that rimmed out. Warnock grabbed a tough rebound, and went back to the line with 6 seconds left. She hit 2-2. Maryland launched a prayer three at the buzzer, but it rimmed out again and Iowa had avenged its 28-point loss to Maryland in an 89-84 classic.

Clark led Iowa with 22 points and 9 assists. Marshall had arguably the best all-around game of her career, finishing with 21 points (including 7-13 from three).

Warnock was just as good on the scoreboard with 21 points and 8 rebounds, with 18 points and all 8 rebounds coming in the second half.

Czinano had 15 points and 8 rebounds, and Martin narrowly missed a triple-double with 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists.

A box score for the game is here.

That was a game worthy of finishing an epic trilogy. From start to finish, these teams went shot for shot with each other. Outside of a couple big Iowa runs in the first and early second quarter and the Maryland responses, neither team had a run of more than 8. One team would hit a big shot or two, then the other would answer.

That’s what you have to do to succeed in March, and both of these teams look capable of doing damage in the NCAA Tournament.

This was the best team performance from Iowa in the last few years. Each of Iowa’s starters played at least 30 minutes, and each was huge in Iowa’s victory.

Clark is known for hitting big shots, but late in this one it was her passing and ball-handling that helped Iowa outlast Maryland in that tense fourth quarter.

Czinano has been blanketed by defenders for most of the last month, but she still found space enough in the fourth quarter to hit some big shots.

Martin often had the tough task of trying to stop Diamond Miller, and managed to get nearly get a triple-double along with her strong defensive effort.

Warnock hit some big shots throughout the game, converted some crucial free throws in the final few minutes, then secured the biggest rebound of the day on Maryland’s next-to-last shot to close out the victory.

And how about Gabbie Marshall? Marshall had been in a severe shooting slump for much of the season, but through it all she never gave up and has firmly come out the other side over the last nine games. Today in the biggest game of Iowa’s season so far, Maryland gave Marshall open shots and she made them pay for it, tying a career high with seven three-pointers. Her three to give Iowa the 82-79 lead might well have been the difference between a win and a loss.

As they've done all season, Iowa fans showed up big in Minneapolis. The official attendance was over 9,000, and the vast majority were Iowa fans. The crowd was loud throughout the game, and certainly gave Iowa that last extra edge in the closing minutes.

At the start of the day, ESPN’s bracketology had Iowa ranked 8th overall as the final 2 seed. Seeds 2-7 looked like this:

2) Indiana

3) Maryland

4) Stanford

5) LSU

6) Utah

7) Virginia Tech

Indiana is probably entrenched as #2 overall despite its loss earlier today against Ohio State.

After that, though, things get interesting.

Stanford and Utah were both upset early in the Pac-12 tournament and can no longer improve their resumes. LSU just lost to unranked Tennessee in the semis of the SEC Tournament. Virginia Tech has kept winning, but also hasn’t had to play a team ranked higher than 13th nationally in the ACC Tournament.

And, of course, Iowa just beat Maryland. Could the NCAA Selection Committee really keep Maryland ahead of Iowa after the Hawkeyes recently beat Indiana and took the season series from Maryland too?

In sum, Iowa has almost certainly locked up a top 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If it wins the Big Ten Tournament tomorrow, I think a 1 seed in the Tournament is very much in play.

Iowa returns to action on Sunday, March 5th at 4pm against Ohio State in the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament. The game will be televised on ESPN. The Buckeyes are 25-6 overall. They came from 24 down in the semifinal game against Indiana to win 79-75 in a thriller.

Iowa beat Ohio State 83-72 in Columbus in late January, but that result is somewhat deceptive as the Buckeyes were without star Jacy Sheldon in the game.

Ohio State’s season has been very up and down. The Buckeyes were undefeated and #2 in the country going into that game against Iowa, but the Iowa loss sent them into a tailspin, going just 4-5 to close out the regular season and finishing fourth.

Sheldon returned in the Big Ten Tournament, having played just one game since the end of November, and Ohio State has responded in the tourney with two big victories over 5-seed Michigan and 1-seed Indiana.

Ohio State’s press was key to its comeback against Indiana, forcing 14 second-half turnovers as the Buckeyes staged their improbable rally. Iowa has seen a lot of presses throughout the season, so hopefully the Hawks are prepared to break it and attack from there.