No. 7 Maryland 96, No. 6 Iowa 68: The Avalanche

Iowa beat Maryland 96-82 the first time, but that result was somewhat deceiving. Iowa benefited significantly form Maryland shooting poorly from the floor and getting in foul trouble in the first matchup. Iowa also benefited from playing at home.

At its best, Maryland is one of the best offensive teams in the country. Wing Diamond Miller is a potential top 3 pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft, and she has plenty of good teams around her.

Could Iowa finish off the season sweep of Maryland, or would the Terps get their revenge?

The game’s first five minutes started like a shootaround. Both teams took one quick jumper after another, with neither getting much of anything going in the paint. Iowa held a narrow 14-12 lead at the under-5 timeout.

Both offenses bogged down a bit in the last half of the quarter, and Iowa ultimately held a narrow 20-19 lead heading to the second. Of note, Monika Czinano took just one shot and had 0 first-quarter points. Maryland was fronting her and using a help defender to play behind her, making an entry pass next to impossible, but also giving up plenty of space to the opposite wing shooter.

The start of the second quarter was a disaster for Iowa. The Hawkeye defense kept giving Maryland open looks from three and the Terps were hitting all of the shots they missed last time around. Iowa’s offense, meanwhile, kept launching jumper after jumper and missed every single one. At one point Maryland went on a 14-0 run and that helped the Terps lead 36-22 with 5:39 to go on the quarter. The onslaught barely slowed and it was soon 44-24 with 4 minutes to go.

Iowa finally scored a couple baskets to end the quarter, but Maryland kept pace and the Terps led 46-28 at the half. Maryland’s big second quarter can be explained almost completely by three-pointers. Maryland shot 7/11 from three in the quarter and was 7/8 at one point. Iowa, meanwhile, was a horrendous 0/10.

Things didn’t improve for Iowa in the third quarter. Maryland continued to shoot well, and Iowa couldn’t get anything going offensively. The Terps led 73-49 heading to the fourth quarter, and the game was over. Maryland ultimately won 96-68.

Caitlin Clark led Iowa with 18 points, but she shot just 5-13 from the field (more on how Maryland contained her below). One big negative aspect of this game was Clark’s reaction to adversity. She started forcing passes, forcing shots, and her defense and rebounding were lackluster. She’ll learn from this experience, but Iowa can’t afford for her to play frustrated like this again.

Gabbie Marshall was one of the few bright spots for Iowa. Marshall has struggled with a shooting slump all season, but has come around some lately and went 5-10 from three tonight. She ended the game with 15 points.

Sydney Affolter was another bright spot, scoring 14 points and grabbing 8 rebounds. At a time when most of Iowa’s players were down, Affolter played her hardest on every possession.

McKenna Warnock and Kate Martin were a combined 7-21 from the floor. Czinano had 4 points on 2-5 shooting. A box score for the game is here

Clark and Czinano killed Maryland in the first matchup. Maryland’s response to that was to play a box-and-one defense with the single player-to-player defender guarding Clark. The result of that was that for much of a possession, Clark was being double-teamed, especially on the wing.

Because of that, Clark couldn’t really drive to the basket and struggled to find space for her shots. Even handling the ball was tough, because she had to beat the double to find space to pass.

More importantly, though, was Maryland’s defense on Czinano. The zone defender closest to Czinano fronted her on most possessions. The low help-side defender then played behind her for as long as she possibly could. As a result, Czinano was sandwiched for most of the game and Iowa really didn’t have an option to enter the ball to her.

In most of Iowa’s losses this year, Czinano has been mostly or completely shut down. Teams have doubled her in the post and made entry passes difficult.

During one of the timeouts tonight, Coach Bluder talked about Iowa needing to run its offense more, but I don’t really know what that means. Running the offense for 30 seconds wasn’t going to take away the front. Maybe it would take away the help defender, but only with really quick movement.

The better answer—to me—is that Iowa needs to find ways tactically and in its execution to punish teams for doubling Czinano. I know it sounds simple, but when two players are guarding a single player, someone on the offense is open. That player has to be in a position to score or do damage.

Tonight Marshall shot well from three. But Warnock and Martin shot poorly, and Iowa’s bench (aside from Affolter) had no real impact. Those players have to be able to knock down shots when they’re open.

I expect every one of Iowa’s remaining opponents to implement a strategy similar to Maryland’s. It’s up to Iowa to beat it.

I know most aren’t going to want to hear this, but most of Maryland’s big second quarter run was about shooting luck. Iowa as a team shoots 37.4% from three. Maryland shoots 35.2%.

In the second quarter, both teams shot plenty of open threes. Maryland just happened to shoot 63.3% while Iowa shot 0%. It’s not like Maryland was getting significantly better looks. It’s not like Iowa was leaving Maryland’s stars wide open. Maryland’s role players just hit their jumpers and Iowa’s didn’t. Soon that shooting turned into an avalanche and that game turned into a blowout.

Iowa concludes the regular season this Sunday, February 26th at 1 pm at home against #2 Indiana. The Hoosiers are 26-1 overall and 16-1 in the Big Ten. The game will be televised on ESPN. At 10am, ESPN will have College GameDay live from Iowa City.