Pickin' On The Old Big Ten, Week 2

As I said in part one of this column, we really don’t know a lot after Week 1, because one game is only marginally more evidence than no games. There were no surprises in the legacy Big Ten after week one, except for a couple teams that blew up their opponents real good. And I got one pick wrong. Which is an excellent segue into …

Eastern Illinois at Illinois: I said Illinois 48, EIU 10; actual score, Illinois 45, EIU 0.

There may be some good reasons this was only the third-ever meeting between these teams.

Florida International at Indiana:
I said Indiana 28, FIU 20; actual score, Indiana 31, FIU 7.

“Alexa, insert Pitbull joke here.”

Illinois State at Iowa: I said Iowa 23, Illinois State 17; actual score, Iowa 40, Illinois State 0.

Now let’s shut out an ISU again.

Fresno State at Michigan: I said Michigan 33, Fresno State 24; actual score, Michigan 30, Fresno State 10.

I thought Fresno State would keep it closer.

Florida Atlantic at Michigan State: I said MSU 38, FAU 17; actual score, MSU 16, FAU 10.

This may not prove to be a good look for Sparty when the season’s over.

North Carolina at Minnesota: I said Minnesota 24, UNC 20; actual score, UNC 19, Minnesota 17.

I don’t mind being wrong when it’s about Minnesota not winning.

Miami (Ohio) at Northwestern: I said jNWU 35, Fake Miami 21; actual score, jNWU 13, Fake Miami 6.

At least the scenery was nice.

Akron at Ohio State: I said tOSU 63, Akron 7; actual score, tOSU 52, Akron 6.

Don’t know if this means Ohio State overperformed or underperformed.

Indiana State at Purdue: I said Purdue 30, Indiana State 13; actual score, Purdue 49, Indiana State 0.

Seriously, Iowa, don’t be the first Big Ten team to give up a point to an ISU this season.

Western Michigan at Wisconsin: I said Wisconsin 53, WMU 6; actual score, Wisconsin 28, WMU 14.

I honestly forgot this game was even played.

That’s 9-1 in this part of the conference, which goes with 7-1 in the other part, for a total of 16-2 (.889) on the very young season. But, like I said in the other column, Week 1 is pretty chalky.

Speaking of dry, messy inhalation hazards, let’s pick this week’s games.

*: all times in this column are always Central.

At 6 pm on a Friday night you should be watching a high school football game, and if you’re smart, you will be, because Western Illinois is pretty, pretty bad.

Indiana 48, WIU 3

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Duke beat the tar out of Elon last week, around the same time the Brazilian Supreme Court also beat the tar out of Elon. It wasn’t the same Elon, but I digress.

This is the sort of undercard matchup that can be wildly entertaining under the right circumstances. Those circumstances bla bla bla this is a nerdfight and if I just shamed you for considering watching Western Illinois-Indiana I can scarcely give you a pass for considering this one. It’ll kick off right around sunset, just like the Rose Bowl, and these teams have roughly equal chances of playing in that bowl anytime soon.

I think Duke beats Northwestern. Don’t know why. Remember, I was wrong about UNC and Minnesota last week.

Duke 16, Northwestern 14

This is one of the marquee matchups of Week 2, but my brain has been beaten down by a solid decade of “Is Texas Back?” coverage followed closely by “No, Texas Is Not Back” coverage. Failing to win at college football in Texas is like failing to sell nachos outside a cannabis dispensary. But I digress.

The Longhorns pasted Colorado State to the ceiling last week. Michigan had a solid but not dominating win against Fresno State. This ought to be a great game, and a close one, but I do think Texas just might be a little too much for the Wolverines.

Texas 28, Michigan 26

Today I learned the University of Rhode Island actually exists. I assume it’s a small school.

Minnesota 38, Rhode Island 10

Wisconsin’s season opener was a win but not a blowout. It’s apparent that Luke Fickell doesn’t yet have the Badgers in a position of dominance.

South Dakota, meanwhile, destroyed in-state rival Northern State last week, 45-6. NSU is a Division II school, located in Aberdeen, which is not close to any place less remote than Aberdeen, South Dakota. Still, the USD Coyotes have joined the other FCS schools from the Dakotas in being surprisingly good considering their recruiting bases are so small. I don’t think USD has a shot at all, but I remain intrigued by the FCS Dakota phenomenon.

Wisconsin 34, USD 14

Right. That’s why Illinois played EIU.

I love what Lance Leipold has done/is doing at Kansas. I fear that Bret Bielema will just be the most recent coach to not win at Illinois, but it’s not like any Illini coach has been able to sustain success since John Mackovic left … thirty-three years ago. KU will get the road win, and I fear it might look easy, though no Bielema team ever just rolls over.

Kansas 34, Illinois 20.

The Broncos gave Wisconsin a bit more than I expected them to last week.

I do not expect the same to happen to Ohio State this week.

Ohio State 56, WMU 13

And of course that leaves us with …

Matt Campbell came to Iowa State in 2016. Since then he’s been linked to a couple of pro jobs and a few other college gigs, but supposedly he’d only consider leaving for Ohio State or Notre Dame.

They ain’t callin’, hoss.

In the eight seasons Campbell has been in Ames, Iowa State has finished the season as a ranked team once, in 2020, when the Clones went 9-3, their best performance under him.

That was the last time Campbell finished a season at ISU with more than seven wins, or fewer than six losses.

In that same time, Kirk Ferentz’s worst finish was 8-5. The Hawkeyes have won ten games in a season three times since Campbell came to town; Campbell has never done so at Iowa State. And the Hawkeyes have finished ranked five times.

More centrally to this prediction, Matt Campbell has coached in seven CyHawk games. He has lost six of them.

Like they say in the mutual fund commercials, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But I’ll tell you this much: I ain’t scared of any Matt Campbell team, and I never will be.

I know Iowa’s second-half performance last week is as likely to be fluke as a new trend. I still saw what I saw: an offense that actually adjusted to what the defense was doing, finding ways to execute competently and ruthlessly on its way to dominating an outmatched opponent.

Will it happen again? I don’t know. That’s why they actually play the games and don’t just take some greybeard predictor's word for it.

But as for me? I believe.

Iowa 31, Iowa State 18