WHO: Michigan Wolverines (7-12, 2-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 4:00 PM CT (Saturday, January 27, 2024)
WHERE: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)
TV: FS1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Michigan -1.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -1 (Iowa 85, Michigan 84; Iowa 50% chance of winning)

Things are gloomy in Iowa City for Iowa men's basketball after the Hawkeyes coughed up a winnable home game against Maryland on Wednesday. But things are even gloomier in Ann Arbor for Michigan men's basketball -- the Wolverines sit dead last in the Big Ten at 2-6 (7-12 overall) and have lost seven of their last eight games. Michigan has won just once in 2024, a 73-65 home win over Ohio State almost two weeks ago.

That said, while Michigan hasn't been winning games of late, the losses were close -- until recently. Michigan's skid started with a 2OT loss to Florida and included a 2-point loss to Minnesota, a 6-point loss to Penn State, and a 7-point loss at Maryland. The Wolverines' more recent losses have been much more lopsided -- a 15-point defeat to Illinois at home and a 32-point drubbing at Purdue.

G Dug McDaniel (5'11", 175, 17.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 5.1 apg, 0.9 spg, 43.4 FG%, 37.4 3FG%)
G Nimari Burnett (6'4", 200, 9.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 37.1 FG%, 32.2 3FG%)
F Terrance Williams (6'7", 225, 12.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 45.1 FG%, 43.0 3FG%)
F Olivier Nkamhoua (6'9", 235, 16.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 52.7 FG%, 36.2 3FG%)
C Tarris Reed (6'10", 265, 8.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 57.0 FG%)

The first meeting between Iowa and Michigan was close for a half -- the Wolverines led 35-33 at the break. Things went very sideways for Iowa early in the second half, though, and an 18-3 run by Michigan gave the Wolverines firm control of the game. Iowa was never able to dig out of that hole.

Michigan used a balanced scoring attack to top Iowa in that game (six players finished in double figures), but the standout player was unquestionably Tarris Reed. The 6'10" big man blew up for 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the floor. That 19-point outburst was his second-biggest of the season, behind a 20-point game against Illinois last season.

The concern for Iowa is that the matchup hasn't gotten any better -- the Hawkeyes didn't have anyone who could effectively handle Reed's size and physicality back in December and the roster hasn't changed since then. Iowa's still going to be reliant on Ben Krikke, Owen Freeman, and probably Even Brauns to try and slow down Reed in this game.

Two other areas of concern for Iowa in the December loss to Michigan: the Wolverines out-shot them at the free throw line (23-of-28 against 19-of-25) and behind the 3-point arc (9-of-24 for the Wolverines, just 5-of-20 for the Hawkeyes). Iowa's unlikely to win any game in which they get out-shot in both of those categories.

In the context of the full season, those numbers look a bit anomalous -- Michigan has been below average at getting to the free throw line overall (225th nationally) and only average at making free throws (71.7%, 178th); they were far better than that at getting to the line (and making free throws) in the December game.

Michigan's own 3-point shooting in that game wasn't so out-of-character -- the Wolverines have made 37.4% of their 3-point attempts this season, 31st nationally. But opponents have shot 35.6% from deep against them this season and the Hawkeyes have been shot 34.2% from long range this season.

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The rotation for Michigan is largely unchanged for Michigan. Star point guard Dug McDaniel is dealing with an unusual six-game suspension -- unusual in the sense that it only applies to road games. McDaniel has sat out both road games since the suspension started, but in the two home games since it began, his playing time hasn't been limited at all -- he played 39 minutes in their home win over Ohio State and 35 minutes in their home loss to Illinois. So Iowa should plan for a heavy dose of McDaniel in this game.

Terrance Williams and Olivier Nkamhoua are two other Michigan players to watch in this game. Williams had 13 points on 3-of-6 shooting from 3-point range in the first game against Iowa, and he's become one of Michigan's most dangerous shooters from deep -- he's averaging 2.1 three-pointers per game (9th in the Big Ten) and connecting at at a 43% clip.

Nkamhoua had 12 points on 2-of-3 shooting from deep and he's emerged as Michigan's second-leading scorer and leading rebounder this season. He's been in double figures in scoring in all but two games this season.

Here's a not-so-bold prediction: if Iowa ends the game with another 5+ minute stretch without making a field goal, the Hawkeyes will lose a third straight game. The offense simply cannot sustain a brownout for that length of time and still find a way to come out on top. The scoring drought against Purdue cost Iowa a chance to potentially make the game interesting, while the late scoring drought against Maryland flat-out cost Iowa the game.

Iowa played well in its last road game (at Minnesota) and Michigan is still in the midst of a seven-losses-in-eight-games tailspin. But it's also still the same Michigan team that routed Iowa in the second half of the game in Iowa City last month. Iowa still doesn't have a good answer for defending Tarris Reed and if Michigan gets hot from 3-point range, the Hawkeyes could easily get buried.

The best plan for Iowa: get to the free throw line (especially if it involves getting Reed in foul trouble) and get going from 3-point range. If Iowa does that, they ought to have a very good chance to get a second consecutive road victory and bounce back from Wednesday's ugly loss to Maryland.