WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-4, 3-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 5:00 PM CT (Monday, January 15, 2024)
WHERE: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, MN)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Minnesota -2.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -1 (Iowa 81, Minnesota 80; Iowa 53% chance of winning)
Monday's game at Minnesota represents what might be a rare sight on the calendar: a winnable Big Ten road game. This game is just one of three in which Iowa is a very slight favorite, per KenPom, alongside upcoming road trips to Indiana and Penn State. Of course, the Vegas oddsmakers have Minnesota as slight favorites themselves (-2.5) and overall this looks like yet another toss-up game in a league that's full of those this season.
Minnesota's 12-4 start to the season this year represents the Gophers' best start to a season since 2018-19, when they started out 13-3 before ending the regular season at 19-12. That season was also the last time they made the NCAA Tournament. The Gophers have already exceeded last season's win total (9 wins) and are one away from matching their 2021-22 total (13 wins).
Much like Nebraska, Iowa's last opponent, the Gophers were able to stockpile wins early by playing a soft non-conference schedule -- Minnesota's non-conference strength of schedule ranked 362nd. The toughest non-conference team they faced was San Francisco (a 14-4 team in the West Coast Conference) who promptly waxed them, 76-58.
Still, the Gophers are also 3-2 in Big Ten play, with road losses to Ohio State and Indiana sandwiching wins over Nebraska (home), Michigan (away), and Maryland (home). Minnesota has been a tough out in their home gym this season -- the Gophers are 11-1 in The Barn, with the only loss being a two-point defeat to Missouri early in the season. Those home wins over Nebraska and Maryland also look a little better after the Cornhuskers and Terrapins' respective wins over Purdue and Illinois in the past week.
PROJECTED MINNESOTA STARTING FIVE
G Elijah Hawkins (5'11", 165 lbs, 8.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 7.7 apg, 1.9 spg, 36.7 FG%, 35.1 3FG%)
G Mike Mitchell (6'2", 185 lbs, 10.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 44.0 FG%, 40.0 3FG%)
F Cam Christie (6'6", 190 lbs, 10.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 41.7 FG%, 39.2 3FG%)
F Joshua Ola-Joseph (6'7", 215 lbs, 10.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 62.6 FG%, 50.0 3FG%)
C Dawson Garcia (6'11", 230 lbs, 16.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 45.2 FG%, 22.9 3FG%)
Minnesota was fairly terrible on offense last season, ranking 235th in offensive efficiency. This year's Gopher team isn't great on offense, but is significantly improved, ranking 91st. The biggest areas of improvement? The Gophers are shooting the ball well this season and doing work on the offensive glass.
Minnesota has effective FG% of 55.1%, which ranks 29th nationally. The Gophers have been especially lethal inside the arc and around the rim; they're making 56.8% of their 2-point attempts this season, which ranks 16th nationally. They're also a solid 3-point shooting team, though, converting at a 35% clip (117th nationally) from behind the arc. When they do miss shots, they've been effective at collecting their misses, too, posting a 34.2% offensive rebounding rate (50th nationally).
The Gophers still struggle with turnovers and free throws on offense. Minnesota turns the ball over on 18% of offensive possessions (207th nationally), with 10.6% of their possessions being lost due to opponent steals (278th). If Iowa can get hands in passing lanes, there could be turnover opportunities -- which could lead to transition buckets for the Hawkeyes. The Gophers are also a poor free-throw shooting team, making just 67.6% of their attempts from the line (290th).
On defense, Minnesota's biggest strengths are in contesting shots and avoiding fouls. The Gophers rank 45th in opponent effective FG% (46.4%) and 65th in foul rate. They're especially good at contesting 2-point shots; opponents are making just 44.8% of their attempts inside the arc. The Gophers are also blocking shots at a good clip -- 12.2% of opponent possessions (53rd).
Minnesota boasts a pretty balanced scoring attack -- Dawson Garcia leads the team with 16.5 ppg, but he's one of five players averaging 10+ ppg this season. Garcia is also the team's leading rebounder (7.7 rpg) and a force defensively, averaging nearly two blocks + steals per game. Offensively, his main threat is around the rim; he's shooting 51.7% on 2-point tries, but just 22.9% on 3-point attempts (8/35).
The top three-point threats for the Gophers are wings Cam Christie and Mike Mitchell. Mitchell, averaging 10.4 ppg, is shooting 40% from long range (34/85). Christie, also averaging 10.4 ppg, is shooting 39.2% (29/74) from deep. Losing track of either of those guys around the perimeter would not be advisable.
Bigs Joshua Ola-Joseph and Pharrel Payne are the other two Minnesota players scoring in double figures this season. Ola-Joseph does most of his work inside the arc (66.3% on 2-point shots), but he has some floor-stretching capabilities as well -- he's 12/24 (50%) from behind the arc this season.
Payne has primarily come off the bench this season and does not stretch the floor (zero three-point attempts this season), but he's lethal around the bucket (67% on 2-point attempts). He's also a menace in the paint on defense, averaging 1.9 blocks per game despite playing just over 20 minutes per game.
Finally, point guard Elijah Hawkins, a Howard transfer, isn't averaging double figures in scoring (8.7 ppg), but he has been an excellent distributor and facilitator on offense for Minnesota this season. His 7.7 assists per game leads the Big Ten (by almost a full assist over the player in 2nd place) and his assist rate of 39.9% ranks 6th in the country. Slowing him down will be a top priority for Iowa's perimeter defense.
Back-to-back home wins over Rutgers and Nebraska last week helped Iowa right the ship a little bit after an 0-3 start to Big Ten play. At 2-3 in league play, the Hawkeyes have moved into a tie for 9th in the conference standings. A win over Minnesota would pull Iowa squarely into the middle of the league almost one-third of the way through the conference schedule.
That said, those Rutgers and Nebraska wins were at home and this game is on the road. The Hawkeyes have been largely outstanding at home this season (albeit against weaker competition, by and large), but have struggled considerably on their forays away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. But Minnesota also isn't Creighton, Purdue, Iowa State, or Wisconsin, all of whom rank among the Top 20 in the KenPom rankings.
The key to success for Iowa in this game will be their effort on the defensive end. If the Hawkeyes can prevent Hawkins from setting up Minnesota's bigs for easy buckets and keeping Minnesota's perimeter players from getting open looks from 3, they should have a chance to pick up their first road win of the season. If that defensive effort is lacking, though, it could be another long day away from home.
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