Published Feb 12, 2025
PREVIEW: Iowa MBB at Rutgers (2025)
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (12-12, 5-8 Big Ten)

WHEN: 5:30 PM CT (Wednesday, February 12, 2025)

WHERE: Jersey Mike's Arena (Piscataway, NJ)

TV: BTN (Jason Horowitz, Robbie Hummel)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Rutgers -5.5 (total of 161.5)

KENPOM: Rutgers -4 (66% chance of winning)

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13-10 Iowa versus 12-12 Rutgers; 14th place in the Big Ten standings against 13th place in the Big Ten standings. Suffice to say, this is not the flashiest Big Ten game of the week by any stretch of the imagination.

This is the first of a two-game East Coast road trip of the Hawkeyes (who play #25 Maryland on Sunday), who are headed on the road on a three-game losing streak and having losing six of their last seven games. Rutgers lost a game at Maryland on Sunday and has split their last four games.

PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP        

G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195 lbs; 10.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 55.5 FG%, 43.1 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.3 ppg; 3.1 rpg; 3.0 apg; 52.4 FG%; 45.2 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.3 ppg; 5.7 rpg; 3.0 apg; 41.0 FG%; 34.9 3FG%)

F Seydou Traore (6'7", 220 lbs; 6.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 48.0 FG%, 26.3 3FG%)

C Riley Mulvey (6'11", 245 lbs; 2.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.4 apg; 75.0 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)

Iowa's starting lineup and rotation remains in flux due to several injuries. Owen Freeman is, of course, still out for the season with a hand injury. Drew Thelwell has started the last eight games for the Hawkeyes, but on Tuesday, head coach Fran McCaffery said Thelwell's status for Wednesday's game was "hard to say." He suffered an ankle injury late in Iowa's loss to Wisconsin on Saturday and did not practice on Monday.

If Thelwell can't go, Brock Harding (8.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 5.5 apg, 43.5 FG%, 37.1 3FG%) would return to the starting lineup. In other lineup news, McCaffery also confirmed that freshman forward Cooper Koch is likely out for the remainder of the season.

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PROJECTED RUTGERS STARTING LINEUP        

G Jeremiah Williams (6'4", 200 lbs; 6.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 43.8 FG%, 21.2 3FG%)

G Dylan Harper (6'6", 215 lbs; 19.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.1 apg; 48.3 FG%, 33.7 3FG%)

F Dylan Grant (6'7", 205 lbs; 6.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.2 apg, 41.6 F%, 24.2 3FG%)

F Ace Bailey (6'10", 200 lbs; 19.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.1 apg, 47.1 FG%, 38.1 3FG%)

F Lathan Sommerville (6'10", 275 lbs; 7.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.5 apg, 49.6 FG%, 14.3 3FG%)

PREVIEW  

Rutgers is a curious team this season. The Scarlet Knights have two of the best players in the entire conference -- or at least two of the top NBA prospects -- but they've gone just 5-8 in league play and 12-12 overall. Guard Dylan Harper and forward Ace Bailey are consensus picks in the mock draft universe to go in the top-3 of the 2026 NBA Draft, if (when) they opt to declare for the professional ranks.

The freshmen's talent is obvious talent and they've been very productive -- combined they're averaging nearly 40 ppg, 13 rpg, and 5 apg -- which has impressed McCaffery.

"I think there's a number of things that impresses me about both of those guys. First of all, they continue to get better. They've both had nagging injuries and theyre back now. They have continued to grow, despite being very good from the beginning. They have great feel for the game," he said.

"They really understand how to play, they understand how to get open, they know how to make plays for other people, they know how to impact the game at the right time. They don't play like freshmen at all," McCaffery added.

One of the problems for Rutgers: they didn't add a pair of superstar freshmen to a team with a solid foundation; they built the whole plane out of freshmen. In a move that's a bit of a zag from a lot of team building approaches in the transfer portal era, this Scarlet Knights team is built around guys recruited into the program. In addition to Harper and Bailey, freshmen Dylan Grant and Lathan Somerville play heavy minutes (they've been regular starters of late). Winning with four true freshmen in the Big Ten is... challenging.

Senior Jeremiah Williams (who transferred from Temple two seasons ago), Eastern Michigan transfer Tyson Acuff and Merrimack transfer Jordan Derkack are getting most of the non-freshmen minutes. Derkack (7.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.0 apg) has been the most productive of the three.

Another reason for Rutgers' middling record this season: the Scarlet Knights don't excel at anything on the court. Rutgers is 15th in the league in offensive efficiency and 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency. The biggest weakness for Rutgers on offense is shooting; the Scarlet Knights are last in the league in effective FG% (48.2%) and last in the league in making 2-point shots (47.6%). They haven't been a lot better at making 3-point attempts, either -- 32.8% (12th), led by Bailey (38% on a team-high 105 attempts) and Acuff (38% on 61 attempts).

Rutgers' strengths on offense? Getting to the free throw line (5th in free throw rate), though the Scarlet Knights have made just 70.1% (14th in the Big Ten) of their shots when they get to the stripe. Attacking the offensive glass has also been a strength; they're 3rd in the league offensive rebound rate, hauling in 32.7% of their misses.

On defense, the Scarlet Knights aren't especially bad at anything -- they rank no worse than 12th in the league in any key defensive category -- but they don't excel at anything either. They've been best at getting blocks (9.8% block rate, 7th) and contesting shots (holding opponents to 52.7 effective FG%, 9th in the league).

While Rutgers has had an extremely up-and-down season, the strengths of their roster and the injury-ravaged nature of Iowa's own lineup makes this look like another challenging game for the Hawkeyes. If Thelwell is out or limited, the task of slowing down Harper will probably fall to Josh Dix; if Dix has to expend a lot of energy on the defensive end, it could negatively impact his offense as well.

Slowing down Bailey looks like an even bigger ask for the Hawkeyes; of the two freshmen phenoms, Bailey is the less polished, but his size (6'10", 200 lbs) and shooting range (again: 38% from 3-point range) will be hard for Iowa's bigs to match. Speaking of bigs, bruising 6'10", 275 lb freshman Lathan Sommerville could also be hard for Iowa to defend, given the Hawkeyes' relative death of effective size at present.