WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-7, 6-5 Big Ten)
WHEN: 2:00 PM CT (Sunday, February 11, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -6.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -5 (Iowa 80, Minnesota 75; Iowa 68% chance of winning)
When Iowa and Minnesota first met nearly a month ago, both teams were scuffling around .500 in the Big Ten. The Gophers entered that game at 3-2 in league play, while the Hawkeyes were 2-3; forty minutes later, both teams were 3-3. It turns out that game didn't really have much predictive power, though.
Minnesota dropped two more games after the Iowa loss, but has since rebounded to win three in a row. Their recent turnaround started with a road win at Penn State two weeks ago, continued with an OT home win over Northwestern last weekend, and most recently featured a narrow home win over Michigan State on Tuesday. That winning streak has carried the Gophers to 5th place and a 6-5 mark in the league, just a half-game back of the double-bye spots in the Big Ten Tournament.
Meanwhile, Iowa has gone just 2-4 since that road win in Minneapolis, with a pair of wins over Michigan and Ohio State sprinkled between a loss to Purdue and losses in winnable game against Maryland, Indiana, and, most recently, Penn State on Thursday. That loss dropped Iowa to 5-7 in the Big Ten and in a tie for 10th place in the league standings.
Can Iowa regain some of its mojo in front of the home fans at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, or will the Gophers continue their recent hot streak?
PROJECTED MINNESOTA STARTING FIVE
G Elijah Hawkins (5'11", 165 lbs, 8.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 7.7 apg, 1.9 spg, 37.5 FG%, 34.2 3FG%)
G Mike Mitchell (6'2", 185 lbs, 10.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 42.6 FG%, 37.7 3FG%)
F Cam Christie (6'6", 190 lbs, 11.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 45.1 FG%, 41.5 3FG%)
F Pharrel Payne (6'9", 255 lbs, 9.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 63.1 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
C Dawson Garcia (6'11", 230 lbs, 17.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 44.7 FG%, 27.3 3FG%)
In the first Iowa-Minnesota game, the Hawkeyes overcame a terrible start (Minnesota led 14-3 four minutes into the game) with a pair of big runs themselves (13-2 and 12-2). That enabled them to build a 40-32 halftime lead and they kept the Gophers at arm's length in the second half.
Iowa got a very balanced scoring effort in that game, led by Ben Krikke with 25 points and Josh Dix with 21 points. Tony Perkins also shipped in 13 points and Owen Freeman had 12 points. Krikke's scoring went in the deep freeze after that game; he had 26 points in Iowa's next three games combined and has only eclipsed 10 points once in Iowa's last six games, a 22-point effort against Penn State on Thursday. His struggles have mirrored Iowa's own struggles over the last month. Scoring is what Krikke does and if he's not doing that, it leaves Iowa in a real bind.
Dix's 21 points in the prior Minnesota game was (and still is) a career-high for him at Iowa; the Minnesota game was his third start of the season but that was the performance that truly clinched his spot in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, he's only scored more than 10 points in a game once since then (15 points against Ohio State last week).
That game was also notable for featuring some of the worst three-point shooting in a game this season. Iowa was a chilly 3-of-13 (23%) from deep, but that was almost decent compared to Minnesota's improbably terrible 5-of-29 (17%) from long range. Both teams made up for the frigid shooting from distance by draining plenty of shots inside the arc; Iowa made 62% of its 2-point attempts, while Minnesota converted a stunning 79% of its 2-point tries.
The Gophers are a very efficient team on shots inside the 3-point line; for the season they're shooting 56.5% on such attempts, 18th best nationally. They aren't a great 3-point shooting team overall (34.1%, 160th), but it's certainly unlikely that they'll shoot as badly from deep as they did a month ago.
Dawson Garcia had his second-best game of the season against Iowa in the earlier encounter, going off for 30 points on 9-of-17 shooting (9-of-13 inside the arc) and 12-of-15 shooting at the free throw line. Garcia remains Minnesota's leading scorer and rebounder this season and he's gone for 20+ points in seven games this season, including two of Minnesota's last three (both wins). Keeping him in check will be a key task -- and a big challenge -- for Iowa's bigs.
Elijah Hawkins continues to lead the NCAA in assists per game (7.7) and he had a strong performance in Minnesota's win over Northwestern a week ago, with 13 points on 4-of-6 shooting and 10 assists. His distribution is a key part of the Minnesota offense, so anything Iowa can do to disrupt his passing lanes should be helpful.
Minnesota also got double-figure scoring efforts from Cam Christie (12 points on 5-of-9 shooting) and Joshua Ola-Joseph (15 points on 7-of-9 shooting) in the prior contest with Iowa. Christie is Minnesota's second-leading scorer this season and he's been particularly good during their current win streak, averaging 17.0 ppg in those three wins.
Ola-Joseph has played limited minutes in the last two games, ceding his starting spot to sophomore forward Pharrel Payne. Payne has averaged 11.0 ppg and 8.0 rpg in those two games and provides another strong option in the post for the Gophers. He also had four blocks against Northwestern and can further boost Minnesota's rim protection efforts (Minnesota ranks 77th in block rate and 36th in opponent 2FG% shooting).
For Iowa, the biggest question for this game might be whether the Hawkeyes can actually finish the game well, especially on the offensive end. Iowa's last three losses (home to Maryland and at Indiana and Penn State) have all featured situations where Iowa was leading or had the game tied in the final few minutes. But the Hawkeyes weren't able to close out those games and pick up wins, which is why the they sit at 13-10, far from the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Ohio State game, Iowa's only win in the last two weeks, was another game that was close at the end; the Hawkeyes did manage to see that one, thanks primarily to some effective use of the foul-up-3 approach on defense and and some strong free throw shooting of their own on the offensive end. It wasn't the prettiest way to win a game, but it was at least an effective way to do so.
Two things feel likely for this game: Iowa is going to need to shoot better from 3-point range than they did in the first game (there's virtually no chance that Minnesota shoots just 17% from deep again) and there's a good chance that it will be another close game near the end. The Hawkeyes are going to need to be able to finish the game strong with stops on defense and some good offensive possessions that result in points. If they can't muster that, Iowa's current skid is only going to get worse.
