WHO: #21 Wisconsin Badgers (18-5, 9-4 Big Ten)
WHEN: 12:00 PM CT (Saturday, February 8, 2025)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: NBC (Noah Eagle, Nick Bahe)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: peacocktv.com
ONLINE: peacocktv.com
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Wisconsin -4.5
KENPOM: Wisconsin -6 (Wisconsin 69% chance of winning)
And now for something a little different: a Big Ten rematch.
Rematches used to be a regular feature of Big Ten schedules, of course, back in the long ago days of the 10-, 11-, and 12-team Big Tens. Even the more recent 14-team incarnation still had room for seven league rematches per year. But in the new 18-team iteration of the Big Ten, there are only three rematches in the 20-game conference schedule.
The first of Iowa's three rematches comes on Saturday, against Wisconsin. (Northwestern and Nebraska are the other league teams Iowa will face for a second time later this year.)
After that first game, a 116-85 Badger bludgeoning of the Hawkeyes, Iowa responded with back-to-back wins, before stumbling into their current skid of five losses in six games. Wisconsin, on the other hand, won four straight Big Ten games after that big win, part of a 7-2 run in league action since the win over Iowa.
Suffice to say, these programs enter this rematch on very different tracks and with very different levels of momentum.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 10.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 55.5 FG%, 43.1 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.3 ppg; 3.1 rpg; 3.0 apg; 52.4 FG%; 45.2 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.3 ppg; 5.7 rpg; 3.0 apg; 41.0 FG%; 34.9 3FG%)
F Seydou Traore (6'7", 220 lbs; 6.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 48.0 FG%, 26.3 3FG%)
C Riley Mulvey (6'11", 245 lbs; 2.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.4 apg; 75.0 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
Traore and Mulvey replaced Brock Harding and Owen Freeman in the lineup in Tuesday's loss to Purdue. While fellow big Even Brauns seemed like the slightly more effective big man than Mulvey in that game, Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery indicated yesterday that he didn't anticipate further changes in Iowa's starting lineup. If that's the case, Mulvey will be in line for his second career start.
PROJECTED WISCONSIN STARTING LINEUP
G Max Klesmit (6'4", 204; 10.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.0 apg, 34.0 FG%, 28.5 3FG%)
G John Blackwell (6'4", 203; 15.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.2 apg; 46.7 FG%, 34.4 3FG%)
F John Tonje (6'5", 218; 18.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 46.9 FG%, 40.7 3FG%)
F Nolan Winter (6'11", 235; 10.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 59.6 FG%, 41.1 3FG%)
C Steven Crowl (7'0", 248; 9.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 53.9 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
PREVIEW
While the Hawkeyes have suffered multiple injuries this season, including the recent season-ending loss of Owen Freeman, the Badgers have been much more fortunate on the health and availability front. In fact, the Badgers have used the same starting five for 22 of 23 games this season.
Consequently, a lot of what I wrote about Wisconsin in my preview a month ago remains the same for this game. As was the case a month ago, the Badgers are playing at a faster tempo than any Wisconsin team in almost 20 years. Wisconsin checks in at 172 in the tempo rankings, the fastest any Wisconsin team has been under Greg Gard. ,
The Badgers' offense, the strength of the team back in January, has only gotten stronger in the month since these teams last played. Wisconsin is up to 8th in offensive efficiency, second-best in the Big Ten. The source of that offensive improvement? The Badgers have been lights-out shooting the ball, which probably comes as no surprise to Iowa fans who still have nightmares about the game a month ago.
Wisconsin has an effective FG% of 56.4% in league games, after hitting 52.3% prior to the first Iowa game. That improvement hasn't been fueled by 2-point shooting (it's 55.2%, unchanged from a month ago), but by a surge in 3-point shooting; the Badgers are making a Big Ten-best 39.5% of 3-point attempts in league games this year. They've made 11+ triples five times since that Iowa game, including in four of their last five games (which featured 15 made threes against UCLA and 17 against Nebraska).
Transfer forward John Tonje, an addition from Missouri (and formerly Colorado State), has been Wisconsin's top offensive threat this year, leading the team in scoring (18.5 ppg) and ranking third in rebounds (4.8 rpg). He only had 12 pts in Wisconsin's earlier blowout win over Iowa, though.
Guard John Blackwell absolutely torched Iowa in that game, with a career-high 32 point effort fueled by a 6-of-10 showing from beyond the arc. Blackwell is averaging 15.2 ppg this year, but while he's been a solid three-point shooter overall this year (33-of-96, 34.4%), he hasn't been one of the Badgers' best outside threats.
Tonje has been the best sharpshooter for the Badgers among their high-volume shooters, making 50-of-123 attempts (40.7%). But they have a host of high-percentage shooters among some of their lower-volume shooters, like Kamari McGee (30-of-55, 54.5%), Nolan Winter (23-of-56, 41.1%), and Carter Gilmore (15-of-33, 45.5%). That trio made 7-of-9 threes against Iowa last month, including a 4-of-5 from McGee. One Badger who hasn't been red-hot from deep: Max Klesmit, who is shooting only 28.5% from beyond the arc, despite attempting a team-high 137 threes.
Finally, Wisconsin is still starting their twin tower duo of Nolan Winter (6'11") and Steven Crowl (7'0"), which figures to be an even bigger challenge for Iowa to handle without Freeman in the post. Combined they're averaging 19.5 ppg and 11.3 rpg this season.
Ultimately, the blueprint for a possible Iowa win probably looks similar to what it would for any game remaining on the schedule: make a bunch of threes and hope the other team has an off shooting night. The first part doesn't look too difficult on paper; Iowa is the second-best three-point shooting team in Big Ten games this year (38.2%) and the Hawkeyes made 11 triples against Purdue on Tuesday. The second part looks much tougher, given the Badgers' red-hot shooting from deep for most of the season.
