WHO: #3 Iowa State Cyclones (7-1)
WHEN: 6:30 PM CT (Thursday, December 12, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1 (Cory Provus and Bill Raftery)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa State -5.5 (total of 159.5)
KENPOM: Iowa State -5 (Iowa State 69% chance of winning)
After a two-game appetizer of Big Ten action, Iowa returns to non-conference play for a few more weeks -- and faces its toughest test of the season so far: #3 Iowa State, 7-1 on the season and looking every bit the part of a Top-5 team. The game is also the annual CyHawk clash, of course, which hasn't featured many close games of late.
Since an 84-78 Iowa State win in 2018, no CyHawk game has been decided by less than 14 points (a 98-84 Iowa win in 2019). Last year was one of the most lopsided, with Iowa State rolling Iowa, 90-65, in Ames. The Hawkeyes have won four-straight games over the Cyclones in Iowa City, by an average of 18.8 points per game.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 6.0 apg; 49.3 FG%; 45.5 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.4 ppg; 3.9 rpg; 2.9 apg; 51.3 FG%; 38.5 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.4 ppg; 5.8 rpg; 4.0 apg; 38.6 FG%; 31.5 3FG%)
F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 3.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg; 0.9 apg; 36.8 FG%; 30.8 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 16.8 ppg; 7.0 rpg; 1.3 apg; 64.4 FG%; 37.5 3FG%)
Iowa seems to be at its healthiest point in several weeks; Fran McCaffery indicated that Seydou Traore should be available for this game and Cooper Koch could "potentially" be available for the game as well.
PROJECTED IOWA STATE STARTING LINEUP
G Keshon Gibert (6'4", 200; 17.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 5.5 apg, 54.3% FG, 78.9% FT, 31.6 3FG%)
G Tamin Lipsey (6'1", 200; 8.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.9 apg; 43.1% FG, 72.4% FT,% 25.0 3FG%)
F Milan Momcilovic (6'8", 225; 12.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.6 apg, 51.4% FG, 77.8 FT%, 50.0 3FG%)
F Joshua Jefferson (6'9", 240; 10.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 57.9 FG%, 93.8 FT%, 16.7 3FG%)
C Dishon Jackson (6'11, 274; 11.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 67.4 FG%, 73.3 FT%, 0.0 3FG%)
Curtis Jones, who started ISU's first game and is averaging 16.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and 2.8 apg this season could also start tonight, though he's come off the bench in the Cyclones' last seven games.
PREVIEW
Iowa State is 7-1 on the season and ranked third in the AP Top 25 and sixth in the KenPom rankings. The Cyclones' only loss this season was a two-point neutral site defeat against Auburn -- currently #2 in the AP Top 25 and #1 in the KenPom rankings. Aside from the loss to Auburn, Iowa State has mostly been dominating their opposition -- ISU has five wins 28+ poins and has just one win decided by fewer than 10 points -- an 89-84 win over Dayton.
The Cyclones have been steamrolling teams with tremendous balance on both sides of the ball. The Cyclones are one of just two teams (Tennessee is the other) to rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency by KenPom this season. ISU is scoring 87.8 ppg and allowing 64.8 ppg this season.
Iowa State's strong offense has been fueled by a few key factors: a 57.2% effective FG rate (24th), a very low turnover rate (12.9%, 6th best nationally), and a propensity to get to the free throw line (36th in free throw rate). The key factor in that strong effective FG rate is lights-out shooting around the rim and inside the arc -- ISU is making 59.9% (15th) of their 2-point attempts this season. They're a solid three-point shooting team as well, making 35.1% (112th) from behind the arc.
Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery has been impressed by what he's seen from the Cyclones this year. "I think it's a really deep team, they got a lot of weapons," he said. "They have a lot of guys that can score in different ways -- three point shooters, [guys that can] go off the bounce. I think they're playing really well together right now."
On defense, ISU has been excellent at forcing turnovers and keeping opponents off the offensive glass and free throw line. The Cyclones are forcing turnovers on 23.8% (8th nationally) of opponent possessions this season, with steals on 14.1% (12th) of opponent possessions. Iowa has generally been good at protecting the ball on offense this season (31st in offensive turnover rate), but ISU will pose the biggest threat to Iowa's ball possession yet.
The Cyclones allow opponents to rebound just 25.6% of their misses (43rd), keeping teams from getting many second-shot opportunities. ISU also ranks 70th in opponent free throw rate and prevents teams from getting many chances at the free throw line. They're not bad at contesting shots, either -- opponents are making 47.5% of 2-point attempts this season (85th) and 31.9% of 3-point tries (129th).
"They compete, they play hard, they play together defensively," McCaffery said of the Cyclones defensively. "They're attacking the ball, they're fighting you in the post, fighting you on the glass."
Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State's lead guard, has been the key factor for the Cyclones this season. The former UNLV transfer is leading the team in scoring (17.4 ppg) and assists (5.5 apg) and ranks 7th in the KenPom National Player of the Year rankings. Gilbert does most of his scoring inside the arc and at the rim -- he's shooting 61.3% from inside the 3-point line -- and also at the free throw line, where he's made 78.9% of his attempts on 57 attempts this year. Gilbert isn't great from outside, where he's made only 6-of-19 (31.6%) shots this season.
Jones has been a major sparkplug off the bench and ranks on the second on the team in scoring at 16.4 ppg. He and wing Milan Momcilovic (third on the team in scoring at 12.5 ppg) have been ISU's best outside shooters this year, with Jones shooting 40.4% (23-of-57) from deep and Momcilovic making 50% (21-of-42) from long range.
Saint Mary's transfer Joshua Jefferson and Charlotte transfer Dishon Jackson have been strong additions to ISU's front court this year. Jefferson leads the Cyclones in rebounding (7.8 rpg) and has been a double-figure scorer with 10.4 ppg on 57.9% shooting from the floor. He's also been outstanding at the free throw line, where's he made 15-of-16 attempts this year. Jackson has also been a plus rebounder (5.8 rpg) and another solid scorer (11.4 ppg on 67.4% shooting) for ISU's very balanced offense.
