WHO: #7 Purdue Boilermakers (17-5, 9-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Tuesday, February 4, 2025)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister and Stephen Bardo)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: peacocktv.com
ONLINE: peacocktv.com
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Purdue -7.5 (total of 155.5)
KENPOM: Purdue -6 (Purdue 71% chance of winning)
Tuesday night's game against #7 Purdue (17-5 overall, 9-2 in the Big Ten) looked daunting a week ago, when the Boilermakers were fresh off a 27-point home win over Michigan while Iowa was fresh off a 17-point loss at Ohio State. Since then Purdue added a win over Indiana last Friday night, while Iowa found that Owen Freeman, the Hawkeyes' leading scorer and rebounder this season, will miss the rest of the season with an injury.
Suffice to say, calling tonight's game "daunting" seems like a quaint understatement now. The Hawkeyes will be facing one of the best teams they've played all year -- and doing so without their best player. Not good.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 6.0 apg; 44.7 FG%; 38.5 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.3 ppg; 3.1 rpg; 3.0 apg; 52.4 FG%; 45.2 3FG%)
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 10.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 55.5 FG%, 43.1 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.0 ppg; 5.7 rpg; 2.9 apg; 40.3 FG%; 34.2 3FG%)
C Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 3.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.5 apg; 44.1 FG%, 39.1 3FG%)
Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery indicated yesterday that they weren't yet sure who would replace Owen Freeman in the starting lineup, but Ladji Demeble is Iowa's most experienced big among the available options, so he seems like the most probable option to fill Freeman's slot in the starting five.
PROJECTED PURDUE STARTING LINEUP
G Braden Smith (6'0", 170 lbs; 15.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 8.8 apg; 44.0 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)
G Fletcher Loyer (6'5", 180 lbs; 14.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.5 apg; 47.1 FG%, 46.3 3FG%)
G CJ Cox (6'3", 200 lbs; 6.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.7 apg; 50.0 FG%, 41.7 3FG%)
F Trey Kaufman-Renn (6'9", 230 lbs; 18.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.4 apg; 60.4 FG%, 42.9 3FG%)
C Caleb Furst (6'10", 235 lbs; 4.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.4 apg, 57.1 FG%, 0 3FG%)
https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/zach-edey-260183Outside of a hiccup in December when they lost three out of four games, Purdue has impressed this year and handled the transition of life without National Player of the Year Zach Edey very well. The Boilermakers have been particularly good since the turn of the year, going 8-1 in 2025, with the only loss coming two weeks ago against Ohio State.
The Boilermakers have been remarkably balanced on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th nationally in offensive efficiency (and first in the Big Ten in conference-only stats) and 30th nationally in defensive efficiency (second in the Big Ten in conference-only stats).
Purdue doesn't have any notable weaknesses on offense, but their biggest strength is shot-making -- the Boilermakers are 20th nationally in effective FG% (56.5%) and have been draining shots inside the arc (56.4%, 28th nationally) and outside the arc (37.7%, 31st). That is, obviously, a very ominous start for an Iowa defense that ranks dead last in the Big Ten in effective FG% defense (59.0%).
While the Boilermakers have been excellent at making shots, their biggest weakness on defense has been preventing opponents from converting shots -- the Boilermakers are just 145th nationally in effective FG% defense (50.1%), though they've been 7th in the league in Big Ten-only games.
Purdue has been excellent at forcing turnovers on defense -- they lead the Big Ten in conference-only stats with turnovers on 23.4% of opponent possessions, including steals on 12.6% of opponent possessions (also a best-in-the-Big-Ten stat). The Boilermakers also avoid putting teams on the free throw line (4th in the Big Ten in defensive free throw rate).
In terms of personnel, Purdue has adjusted well to life without Edey. Replacing his 25.2 ppg and 12.2 rpg hasn't been easy, but a more balanced scoring attack has helped make up the difference. Junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has really blossomed and he leads the team in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (6.2 rpg). He does most of his damage in the paint and inside the arc; he's making 60.8% of his 2-point attempts this season.
"Yeah, [they're] different without [Edey]," McCaffery said during his media availability earlier this week. "Any team is gonna be different without him. Kaufman-Renn has really taken his game to a whole other level, we've seen that."
McCaffery also praised Purdue's veteran guards, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer.
"You still have the back court," he said. "Those two have been starters since the minute they got there. [Smith was] the preseason player of the year. Those two guys are special".
Smith ranks second on the team in scoring at 15.8 ppg and has excelled as a facilitator, distributor, and playmaker; he leads the nation in assist rate and his 8.8 assists per game ranks 3rd nationally and best in the Big Ten. Loyer is the third Boilermaker averaging double figures in scoring, at 14.0 ppg, and he's been their most lethal three-point shooter as well, draining 44-of-95 (46.3%) from deep this year.
"Matt [Painter] always has depth," McCaffery added. "He has a good mix of veterans and young guys, everyone understands and accepts their roles and plays it to the best of their ability. They've got pieces, that's why they're doing as well as they are."
To McCaffery's point, Purdue has eight players who have played in 22 games this season and average at least 16 minutes per game; outside of the big three of Kaufman-Renn, Smith, and Loyer, they're all averaging between 4-7 ppg and 2-4 rpb. The numbers aren't impressive individually, but collectively they add up -- and they make it hard for defenses to key on a particular player as well.
C.J Cox and big man Caleb Furst round out the projected starting five for Purdue, with Cox averaging 6.1 ppg and 2.6 rpg on 50% shooting from the floor. He's been the Boilermakers' second-best three-point shooter as well, converting at a 41.7% clip this season. Furst has averaged 4.7 ppg and 3.0 rpg while shooting 57.1% from the floor.