WHO: Kansas State Wildcats (2-0)
WHEN: 7:30 PM CT (Thursday, November 16, 2023)
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: Fox Sports 1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
Last year, Iowa played arguably its worst game of the season at Kansas State. The Wildcats played a 5-out offense, and used the space left open in the lane to drive past Iowa's perimeter defense throughout the night. When the Wildcats didn't get to the basket, they drew several fouls and ended up shooting 21 free throws in the game.
Despite all that, Iowa led for nearly 34 minutes of game action, and never trailed by more than two points. Unfortunately for the Hawks, you only need to be leading when the clock hits zero to wina game. Kansas State took a late lead in the game, held Iowa scoreless on its final possession, and pulled off the 84-83 upset.
The Wildcats looked like a solid team early in the year last year, then fell apart in Big 12 Conference play. Overall they finished 19-17 (5-13 in the Big 12) and missed the NCAA Tournament.
This year, the Wildcats should be better. They return four of five starters from last year and also return a former National Player of the Year contender after a year off with an injury. AP Poll voters have some belief in the Wildcats, as they have they ranked second in the "Others Receiving Votes" category.
Will Iowa avenge its loss from last year, or will Kansas State sweep the home and away series?
Stats for this article are from HerHoopStats. Player averages are from the player's last full season.
Top Players
Ayoka Lee (22.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.9 bpg), a very talented 6'6" post, is the headliner for Kansas State. On January 23, 2022 Lee scored 61 points against Oklahoma to set a record for most points scored in a single game in Division I history, a record that still stands. Oklahoma was rated #14 at the time, so it didn't even come against weak competition.
Lee was in the National Player of the Year discussion for much of 2021-22, though she failed to win the award. Then she missed all of last season with an injury. She hasn't shown any rust in her return this season, as she's averaging 23.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg on 66.7% shooting through two games.
It will be interesting to see if Iowa head coach Lisa Bluder continues to start Iowa's small lineup against Kansas State. Iowa went small against Virginia Tech and in one sense it worked. Iowa won the game, and Hannah Stuelke was dominant at the 5 position on offense. But Stuelke played just 17 minutes in that game due to foul trouble, then played just 12 minutes against Northern Iowa, again largely due to fouls.
Iowa might instead switch back to starting Stuelke at the 4 and Sharon Goodman at the 5 in the hopes that a less difficult defensive matchup will help keep Stuelke on the floor.
Gabby Gregory (18.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg), a 6'0" guard, was Kansas State's leading scorer last season. She wasn't particularly efficient in her scoring, though, as she shot 50.4% from 2 and 32.7% from 3. Gregory had a big game against Iowa last year, scoring 24 points in the victory. She wasn't efficient in that game, going 0/6 from three, but she was able to draw a lot of fouls and went 12/14 at the free throw line.
Serena Sundell (13.9 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.8 rpg), a 6'1" guard, is a much better finisher than Gregory at 57.7% from 2. She's not much of a three-point shooter, however, as she shot just 25.3% from three-point range last year. Sundell also had a big game against Iowa last season, matching Gregory's 24 points.
Play Style
Last year with the 5-out offense, Kansas State played very fast. The Wildcats averaged 73.9 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranked in the 87th percentile nationally. Through two games this year, the Wildcats have averaged 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks in the 10th percentile nationally.
The sample from this season is too small yet to conclude that Kansas State will be a very slow team this season, but playing a slower pace than last season does make sense.
Lee's skillset is most effective in a half court offense where she gets time to establish position down low. Lee's presence should also help Kansas State find driving opportunities and potentially open up shooters if Iowa has its guards try to double down on Lee.
A slower style for this game also makes sense. Iowa loves to play fast, and Caitlin Clark is most lethal when she has space to shoot, drive, or create with her passing. If Kansas State slows the game down, it limits Iowa's fast break offense and puts Kansas State's offense in position to succeed.
X-Factor
Post defense. Lee is obviously a huge threat and whoever plays the 5 will have a tough task in slowing her down. Iowa's 5 will also have to serve as a rim protector when Kansas State's guards beat Iowa's perimeter defense off the dribble. That includes taking away dump-off passes to Lee in close.
Thus far, Stuelke, Goodman, and Addison O'Grady have done an admirable job of slowing down star centers. Elizabeth Kitley had 16 points in Iowa's game against Virginia Tech, but she did so on an inefficient 7/16 shooting performance. They then held UNI star Grace Boffeli to 11 points and just eight shot attempts.
Lee will be that group's toughest defensive task of the year to date, but thus far Iowa's bigs have been able to rise to the challenge of defending other very good posts.
