WHO: #1 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-0, 3-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 7:30 PM CT
WHERE: Bryce Jordan Center (State College, PA)
TV: BTN (Shane Sparks and Jim Gibbons)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Steven Grace and Mark Ironside) | AM 800 KXIC | YouTube
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
BREAKDOWN
Key Matches seems insufficient for a dual meet of this caliber because frankly, they're all key matches. This is #1 vs #2, the winners of six of the last seven NCAA titles and the heavy favorites to do so again this season. Iowa should put out a roster featuring 10 ranked wrestlers, while Penn State could counter with a lineup featuring nine ranked wrestlers -- although the Nittany Lions have seven wrestlers ranked in the Top 5 at their weights, while Iowa has just three that can say the same. This dual meet should feature three #1-ranked wrestlers, two #2-ranked wrestlers, and five former national champions. This is about as stacked as a dual meet can get in 2023.
125: #1 Spencer Lee (RS SR, 10-0) vs UN Gary Steen (JR, 5-9)
Spencer Lee is on a career-best six-match pinning streak that has featured falls over four consecutive wrestlers ranked in the Top 10 at 125 lbs. Gary Steen is not ranked in the Top 10 at 125 lbs. Lee should get one more moment to shine in Pennsylvania, the place where he became a prep legend.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa (big)
133: #17 Brody Teske (JR, 4-0) vs #1 Roman Bravo-Young (GR, 9-0)
Teske started his college career at Penn State (before transferring to UNI and then transferring again to Iowa last summer), so he probably scrapped with RBY a time or two in the PSU training room. I'm not sure how much good that familiarity will do him here, though. Teske has improved Iowa's results at 133, but RBY is a two-time defending NCAA champion for a reason.
ADVANTAGE: Penn State (pretty big)
141: #2 Real Woods (SR, 9-0) vs #4 Beau Bartlett (JR, 14-0)
Woods, another transfer addition to the Iowa lineup, has provided a welcome jolt to Iowa's lineup this season and shown some incredibly slick mat skills. He's tended to start matches strong and coast to victory, though he did battle back and win a close match against Indiana's Brock Hardy. Bartlett has looked excellent since dropping from 149 to 141 this year, though he hasn't faced anyone on Woods' level until now. Woods and Bartlett have never wrestled before and have no common opponents, which makes this one hard to predict. Hopefully Woods can get another fast start.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP or IOWA (slight)
149: #7 Max Murin (RS SR, 13-3) vs #13 Shayne Van Ness (RS FR, 11-2)
Murin and Van Ness have very similar results among some of their common opponents -- both lost narrow matches to Iowa State's Paniro Johnson (3-1 for Murin, 3-2 for Van Ness) and dropped similar decisions to Wisconsin's Austin Gomez (5-3 for Murin, 6-2 for Van Ness). Murin has the experience edge, but Van Ness has looked very capable in his debut season as a starter. Like many Murin matches, this match could come down to who can score the winning takedown in the third period or overtime.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP
157: #15 Cobe Siebrecht (JR, 8-2) vs #9 Levi Haines (FR, 12-1)
Haines is another freshman who's taken the PSU lineup by storm; he's coming off his biggest win of the season, a 3-1 victory over Michigan's Will Lewan in sudden victory. Siebrecht's emergence has been a very pleasant surprise for Iowa this season and this will be another match for him to test himself against a Top 10-caliber opponent.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP or PENN STATE (slight)
165: #13 Patrick Kennedy (SO, 12-2) vs #5 Alex Facundo (RS FR, 11-1)
Facundo is the third of Penn State's high-performing freshmen starters and the highest-ranked of that trio. He's coming off a pair of back-to-back overtime wins last weekend, including a 6-5 win over Michigan's Cameron Amine. Facundo's only defeat this season was a 4-2 loss to Iowa State's David Carr, who also handed Kennedy one of his two losses this season (10-4). Kennedy is coming off a narrow 4-3 loss to Wisconsin's Dean Hamiti, so this match will be another opportunity for Kennedy to try and earn a win over a Top-10 opponent.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP or PENN STATE (slight)
174: #15 Nelson Brands (SR, 4-3) vs #1 Carter Starocci (JR, 10-0)
Brands dropped a very close 3-2 decision to the #2-ranked man at this weight, Nebraska's Mikey Labriola, last week. Now he can see how he fares against the #1-ranked guy at 174. Starocci, the two-time defending national champion, is going to be an enormous challenge for Brands.
ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE (big)
184: #12 Abe Assad (JR, 14-2) vs #1 Aaron Brooks (SR, 6-1)
Assad enters this match after being on the wrong end of one of the bigger upsets of the season last week, getting pinned in under 90 seconds by Wisconsin's Tyler Dow. His opponent? Top-ranked, two-time defending national champion Aaron Brooks. Brooks has a 2-0 career record against Assad as well.
ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE (big)
197: #7 Jacob Warner (SR, 11-2) vs #4 Max Dean (SR, 12-2)
And here's a rematch of last year's NCAA Tournament final at 197 lbs. Both Warner and Dean have had their hiccups this season, with each man losing twice already. Dean beat Warner in both of their matches last season, including a 3-2 win in the NCAA finals.
ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE
285: #3 Tony Cassioppi (SR, 16-0) vs #2 Greg Kerkvliet (JR, 8-1)
Officially, Cassioppi is 3-0 all-time against Kerklviet, with a 9-0 win over Kervkleit at the 2021 Big Ten Tournament, a 7-2 win in last year's dual meet, and a 6-4 win in overtime at last year's Big Ten Tournament. Unofficially, Kervkliet beat Cassioppi at the All-Star Classic earlier this season (8-5), so he should have plenty of confidence heading into this match, too. These are two of the best and most athletic heavyweights in the division, so they could put together a very exciting match.
ADVANTAGE: TOSS-UP or IOWA (slight)
FINAL THOUGHTS
As you can see from that weight-by-weight breakdown, things look pretty daunting for Iowa in this dual after 165 lbs. The upper weights strongly favor Penn State, although Warner is certainly capable of beating Dean and Cassioppi has several wins over Kerkvliet already. Still, the path to an Iowa victory is pretty clear: the Hawkeyes need to make hay in the lower weights and the middle weights.
Enacting that gameplan might be easier said than done, though. At 133 Roman Bravo-Young might be able to match all or most of Spencer Lee's team points at 125, while 141 and 149 both look like toss-ups. The middle weights also look challenging, as Siebrecht and Kennedy would need to knock off Top 10 opponents to get wins for Iowa at those weights. None of that is impossible, but pulling it off is probably going to require these Hawkeyes to produce their best wrestling of the season so far. We'll find out tonight if they're able to do that.