WHO: #10 seed Georgia Bulldogs (22-11 overall, 9-7 in SEC)
WHEN: Sunday, March 19 at 2 PM CT
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: ABC
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM TBD
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

Iowa fans are understandably worried about this game. Just last year, 10-seed Creighton defeated Iowa in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to begin a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight.

Now Cedar Rapids native and former Iowa player Katie Abrahamson-Henderson brings her 10-seeded Georgia team to Iowa City looking to complete a storybook ending of her own. What problems will Georgia present for Iowa on Sunday?

Georgia is led by its defense. The Bulldogs rank 25th nationally in opponent’s points per 100 possessions and 14th nationally in steal rate.

A big reason for that defensive success is Georgia’s zone. The Bulldogs will likely play a 3-2 (or 1-2-2) zone the entire game. At its best, the zone is meant to cause chaos on the perimeter through aggressive traps on the wing or in the corners. Against Florida State, Georgia had a couple runs of success generating turnovers in the second quarter and early fourth quarter. Those turnovers—especially in the fourth—helped swing momentum in the game.

But outside of those two periods, Georgia’s zone didn’t cause Florida State that many issues. The Seminoles average 13.5 turnovers per game and only had 14 against Georgia.

When I think of aggressive, turnover-focused zones I think Northwestern. The Wildcats were down this year, but caused Iowa problems in Caitlin Clark’s first two years because they never stop looking to turn teams over. I don’t think this Georgia defense is quite that disruptive.

The biggest benefit of Georgia’s 3-2 zone against Florida State was limiting dribble penetration. When Georgia was set Florida State got very little going to the basket all game. Instead, the Seminoles settled for jumpers that they mostly missed outside of a few hot streaks like in the game’s opening minutes.

Like all defenses, the 3-2 zone has its weaknesses. Many of Florida State’s jumpers were wide open. Had Florida State shot well from three, the game could’ve gone very differently.

In particular, Georgia’s zone is susceptible to overloads where the opposing offense has a shooter on the wing, in the corner, and a post on the low block. Like all zones, teams can also unlock it via quick passes that swing the ball before the zone has time to shift. There is no better player at putting long skip passes on the money than Clark.

Florida State also found some success in opening up the zone by completing entry passes to a high post located around the free throw line. Usually one of the bottom two zone defenders came up to guard the high post, freeing up Florida State’s post in a 1-on-1 matchup and opening cutting lanes for the opposite wing.

The good news for Iowa is that the Hawkeyes have faced Georgia’s zone and several of its key players before. Abrahamson-Henderson was at Central Florida last year, and the Knights traveled to Iowa City in December 2021. That game was tied at halftime, before Iowa took a 13-point lead in the third quarter. UCF battled back to get the deficit into single digits, but Iowa held on for a 69-61 victory.

As mentioned, Iowa has also played several good Northwestern zones and has plenty of experience with teams that like to trap and apply pressure.

Georgia’s rebounding prowess was top of Coach Bluder’s mind in yesterday’s post-game press conference. The Bulldogs 37.3% offensive rebounding rate—good for 26th nationally—is due largely to their length, athleticism, and physicality in the paint.

The Bulldogs generally play with two posts around the basket. They also try to drive and shoot a lot of two-point jumpers. As a result, they have a lot of bodies in the paint available to grab offensive rebounds. The offensive rebounds are a key component of the Bulldog offense, because they don’t shoot particularly well from any position on the floor.

Iowa is a good defensive rebounding team. Its 76% defensive rebounding rate ranks 5th nationally. But the Hawks also haven’t played many teams that rebound as well and that are as physical as Georgia.

If Iowa can win the battle on the defensive glass, the Hawkeyes have a great chance to win this game. If they can’t, then Georgia might be able to keep pace with Iowa even if the Hawks are scoring well on the other end.

Georgia’s offense is almost the opposite of Iowa’s offense. The Bulldogs would rather slow things down than play fast. They don’t take many three-pointers, preferring instead to shoot from two. Sometimes they get to the basket, but often they pull-up and shoot two-point jumpers, hoping that those shots fall or that they can rely on their offensive rebounding to get a second chance.

Georgia’s offense is also fairly balanced. The Bulldogs' leading scorer shoots 11.9 shots per game. After her, they have five players that average between 6-10 shots per games. On the one hand, that is a good thing. Iowa doesn’t have to try and stop a great post like Indiana’s Mackenzie Holmes or a pure shooter like UConn’s Azzi Fudd. On the other hand, it means Iowa can’t key its defense on any one player and that Georgia has plenty of players who can step up if one or two are having a rough game.

5’8" guard Diamond Battles is Georgia’s leading scorer. She averages 14.5 ppg, 1.7 spg, and shoots 44.3% from 2 and 26.2% from 3. Battles is a transfer from UCF. She scored 12 points against Iowa in last year’s UCF game, though she shot just 3-11 on the day.

6’3" forward Brittney Smith is Georgia’s second leading scorer. She averages 11.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and shoots 49.8 percent from 2.

Fellow forward Javyn Nicholson, listed at 6'2", is the team’s leading rebounder at 7.0 rpg. She also 9.5 ppg and shoots 52.8% from 2.

Finally, Alisha Lewis, listed at 5'7", has only started four games all season, but to my eye she is the best facilitator on Georgia’s team. She averages a team best 4.4 assists per game, and also leads the team with 2.1 steals per game. She also has experience against Iowa, playing nearly 34 minutes in UCF’s loss to the Hawkeyes last year.

Shooting. Florida State shot 29 three-pointers in its first-round game against Georgia. Many of those shots were open because Georgia was more focused on keeping Florida State out of the paint. The Seminoles made just 8 of those threes, good for 27.6% on the day. Had Florida State converted on a couple more of those three-point attempts, the game might’ve turned out differently. Georgia only really seized control in the fourth quarter.

Iowa is a very good shooting team. If Georgia keeps Iowa out of the paint early, the Hawks will need to hit the open threes it gets to keep pace. Hitting threes should also open up the zone a bit, as Georgia will need to stretch its zone to prevent further open shots.