WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 11:01 a.m.
Tickets: A few hundred single tickets remain unsold.
TV: ESPN2 – Beth Mowins, Anthony Becht, and Rocky Boiman
Last Meeting: Iowa won 59-0 in 1947 in a game played in Iowa City.
The Weather: Sunny skies, winds around 10 mph and temps in the 70’s.
The Line: Iowa is an 18.5 point favorite
History: This will be the third meeting between Iowa and North Dakota State. Iowa has won the previous two meetings back in 1946 and 1947. Iowa won 39-0 in 1946 and 59-0 in 1947. North Dakota State is 2-0 on the year and they are coached by Chris Klieman, who is a native of Waterloo, IA. He was the defensive coordinator for the Panthers when they nearly beat Iowa in the opening game of the 2009 season. His career record at NDSU is 30-3, winning a pair of national titles. This is his third season as the head coach of the Bison.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. North Dakota State rush defense
Iowa’s rushing attack continues to hum along at a nice pace. Iowa is averaging 205 yards per game on the ground with the dynamic duo of LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley doing the bulk of the work. Both also have three touchdown each on the group, so they have provide a pretty potent combination for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is also average a pretty high 6.3 yards per carry so far this season, which is a terrific number, but probably not a sustainable one once they reach Big Ten play. Having said that, Iowa is going to continue to ride their thunder and lightning tandem as much as they can once again this week.
The Bison have been pretty decent in their first two games defending the run, giving up 137 yards per game. Having said that, one of their first opponents threw it a lot, so the numbers are a bit off in that regard. Still, giving up four yards a crack isn’t too shabby. Both opponents are pretty good FCS teams, but this will be a different animal on Saturday for North Dakota State. The Bison are led by linebacker Nick DeLuca, who is their leading tackler and the leader of their defense. I still don’t think this is a great match-up for the Bison and Iowa should be able to establish their ground game. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Iowa pass offense vs. North Dakota State pass defense
C.J. Beathard has been fantastic early in the season throwing the ball. The senior signal caller has completed 67% of his throws and in the last game against Iowa State, he connected on three touchdown passes. Beathard has been finding his favorite target, Matt VandeBerg, whenever he wants. Last game, the senior wide out caught 7 passes for 129 yards and a score. Beathard also found George Kittle and Wadley for a score in the last game against Iowa State. I suspect that Iowa will continue to go to their play action game as much as possible, but they have also been going to their three wide receiver sets on a regular basis thru two games. Could this be a breakout type game for Jay Scheel? It kind of feels like it might have the opportunity to be just that for the young wide receiver.
North Dakota State has struggled so far this year in defending the pass. They are giving up 272 yards per game in the air and opponent are completing 36% of their throws for an average of 16 yards per completion. Those are high numbers. However, they have also intercepted four passes so far this season, so they seem to be able to create turnovers. The Bison also have six sacks this season, led by three from Brad Ambrosius on the defensive line, so they can create some pressure. Again, this looks a lot like the run game, where Iowa will have a decided advantage. The only thing tipping a bit on the side of NDSU is that they can make some plays, but can they make them against a quarterback who has been red hot early in the year? Tough time seeing that happening this week. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
North Dakota State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
Like the Hawkeyes, the Bison have a two man attack in their running game. The leading rusher is Iowa native Lance Dunn, who has 178 yards on the ground this year. Also getting plenty of work is King Frazier, who has 118 yards rushing. North Dakota State tends to go with the hot hand approach in the backfield, so whichever back is running well and gaining yards, will get the bulk of the carries. Overall, they are averaging 255 yards per game on the ground and 5.6 yards per carry, which tells me that they can run the ball.
Iowa’s rush defense was much improved in their second outing of the season. Iowa held the Cyclones to just 126 yards on the ground and their tackling improved from week one. The Hawkeyes held their in-state rivals to just 3.6 yards per carry and dominated the line of scrimmage. Of course, a big reason for the improvement was that Josey Jewell played the whole game. It’s hardly a coincidence that with Jewell out there, Iowa showed improvement. Iowa’s defensive line did a much better job of shedding blockers and making plays. This will be a pretty good battle because NDSU is built to play like a vintage Big Ten team, including Iowa. They want to run the football and will go to heavy personnel packages, so this should be a good battle. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT EDGE TO IOWA
North Dakota State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
Once again, the Bison are much like the Hawkeyes in the passing game. They like to use the run to set up the pass via the play action game. Easton Stick is their quarterback and he gained quite a bit of experience starting eight games last year. This season he has completed 64% of his throws for an average of 225 yards and four touchdowns. He’s also not prone to mistakes with just one interception so far this year. When Stick goes to the air, his favorite target is Darrius Shepard, who has 8 receptions for 127 yards. If they are going deep, it’s going to Shepard. The other favorite target is Stick’s high school teammate, R.J. Urzendowski, who has four receptions for 121 yards.
Iowa’s pass defense showed the same type of improvement that the run defense did. Iowa led ISU to 165 yards passing, which was much better than the week before. Iowa is giving up 215 yards per game on average, so when you factor in Stick’s yards this season, you could expect the Bison to throw for right around 220 yards if the averages hold. Iowa has been creating turnovers early in the year, but only one interception thus far. Iowa did get pressure once again from their front four with three sacks last weekend. We all know Desmond King will be solid and his partner on the other side of the field, Greg Mabin, bounced back from a tough first game. Really the only way the Bison will be able to move the ball in the air is if they are able to establish a ground game. If they are tuned into a pass happy team, then Iowa will have won out in the chess match. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Special Teams
Well, the Ron Coluzzi experience has been really good so far. The graduate transfer is averaging 42.6 yards per punt. Perhaps just as important is Coluzzi’s kicks have resulted in five fair catches on seven punts. Keith Duncan has been perfect so far kicking the football. He has made all of his PAT’s and one field goal. What we haven’t seen from the true freshman is a field goal of any significant length, so there is that question mark remaining. In the return game, Desmond King continues to be a positive player averaging nearly 9 yards on punt returns.
For the Bison, Cam Pederson is their place kicker and he’s 2-3 on the year with one make from 52 yards out, so he has a big leg. He also handles their kickoffs and has just two touchbacks, so Iowa should be able to return his kickoffs. Jackson Koonce is their punter and he’s averaging just 33.9 yards per punt with a long of 46 yards. That’s a pretty low average per punt so far this year, so perhaps Iowa has a slight edge. Eric Perkins handles punt returns and is averaging 7.5 yards per return. On kickoffs their main returner is Bruce Anderson, who has done a decent job in this area, but not as effective as King. Iowa should be in good shape in the special team’s battle. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
THE LAST CALL
I’ve been saying for a while that this would be Iowa’s toughest test in the non-conference slate of games. North Dakota State might play at a level lower than Iowa, but they are built much like the Hawkeyes. They like to run the ball just like Iowa and use the play action game. They like to play a physical brand of football, like many schools in the Big Ten.
This will be a good test for Iowa and they have the Hawkeyes full attention. That’s because Iowa knows the have won five straight national titles at the FCS level and they have also knocked off five straight FBS schools on the road.
Having said all that, when you look at the numbers, even though I think the Bison won’t be intimidated by the venue and the surroundings, they are going to have a tough time keeping the Iowa offense in check and scoring points. Go back to a year ago when Illinois State came into Iowa City highly ranked and posing a threat and that game was 31-0 before Iowa called off the dogs and gave up a pair of late scores to make the game closer than it actually was in reality. I’m not sure that it will be 31-0 at any point, but unless Iowa turns it over three or more times, the Hawkeyes should be able to win this one fairly comfortably. IOWA 38 NORTH DAKOTA STATE 17. My pick to click this week is C.J. Beathard, who throws for over 250 yards and 3 scores.
Once again this week we have a guest picker. This time it’s former Hawkeye Adam Gettis, who was an all Big Ten offensive lineman in his senior year.
Adam Gettis: 35-17 Hawks with the Beathard to VandeBerg the combo to click.
Blair Sanderson: Hawkeyes 38, Bison 21. PTC is LeShun Daniels, Jr.
Mike Zierath: This is an easy one for me. Iowa bumps the bison, scoring more than 40 points for the third straight game. Hawks 45, Bison 10. My PTC this week are the boys up front, who pave the way.
Lyle Hammes: It won't be easy, but Iowa pulls away from NDSU, 34 - 21. PTC is Brandon Snyder with his first interception.
RDIETZ: Iowa 41 NDSU 24. Daniels with 130 yards and 3 scores
John Kerth: North Dakota State may be an FCS school, but it isn't your traditional schedule filler. You don't win five straight championships as NDSU has without having a strong program, regardless off the class. That said, I think Iowa is too big upfront for the Bison and that will pay off. Iowa 37, NDSU 20. LeShun Daniels finishes with 120 yards and two TDs.
Torbee: This is Iowa's hardest non-conference test of the year. Of course, Iowa notched A and A+ victories in their first two tests, so there isn't too much to be worried about here. North Dakota State is a fabulous FCS program - one capable of taking down average to bad FBS programs. Iowa is NOT an average FBS program, they are a legit Top 15 type team. The Bison hang in for a while, but Iowa pulls away with a 31-17 victory. Pick to click is CJ who burns them deep for a couple big pass plays.
