WBB: Selection Committee Second Top 16 Reveal

Thursday night, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed its updated Top 16 teams if the NCAA Tournament were selected today (but not including today’s results). The first reveal occurred on February 10 and saw Iowa land as a 2 seed and #7 overall.

Since that release Iowa has lost at #2 Indiana (Iowa actually lost before the reveal, but the Committee didn’t have it factored in), demolished Rutgers and Wisconsin at home, won by 20 at Nebraska, and lost by 28 at #7 Maryland.

When you look at those results without further context, it really doesn’t look like Iowa did much to improve its resume. Nebraska is a bubble NCAA Tournament team and that is clearly Iowa’s best win in the last two weeks. The loss at Indiana probably didn’t hurt much. A loss at Maryland really shouldn’t have either, but the margin might’ve raised some eyebrows.

Before the big Maryland loss, ESPN had Iowa at 5th overall in its Bracketology, just ahead of LSU, Maryland, and Utah. Due to losses from LSU and Utah before the Maryland game, ESPN at least thought Iowa had gained ground on the field even without another notable win. Was ESPN right about that and how much would the Maryland loss hurt Iowa?

1 Seeds

1—South Carolina—SEC—no change
2—Indiana—Big Ten—no change
3—Stanford—PAC 12—no change
4—Utah—PAC 12—up 2

2 Seeds

5—LSU—SEC—no change
6—Maryland—Big Ten—up 3
7—UConn—Big Ten—down 3
8—Virginia Tech—ACC—up 5

3 Seeds

9—Iowa—Big Ten—down 2
10—Notre Dame—ACC—no change
11—Duke—ACC—down 3
12—Ohio State—Big Ten—up 4

4 Seeds

13—Texas—Big 12—down 1
14—Villanova—Big East—up 1
15—Arizona—Pac 12—previously unranked
16—Michigan—Big Ten—down 5

I was a little stunned to see Iowa all the way down at a 3 seed. Yes the Maryland loss was bad, but ESPN had Iowa at 5th overall a couple days ago. Even a bad loss at the #6 team shouldn’t hurt a team too much (at least in theory).

I think this reveal shows that the Committee places more value on recent results as compared to overall resume. Last year, no one thought Iowa would get the last 2 seed heading into the selection show. But the Committee gave Iowa the nod over teams with arguably better resumes specifically because of Iowa’s late season run.

That is both good and bad for Iowa. If the Hawks close the season with a couple big wins, they could dramatically improve their position. If they lose to Indiana then lose in the quarterfinal of the Big Ten Tournament, though, Iowa could fall further more as a result of losing three straight to end the season than because of the hit that would give to Iowa’s overall resume.

If Iowa loses to Indiana, wins the quarterfinal tournament game, then loses to Maryland again in the semifinal, Iowa probably won’t fall lower than a 3 seed, barring strange results.

South Carolina and Indiana should be virtual locks to be the #1 and #2 overall teams in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. Indiana is well ahead of #3 Stanford, but also has a loss to Michigan State on its resume that would negate any possible South Carolina loss.

Iowa won’t end up in Indiana’s bracket. During the first reveal, Iowa (7th overall) and Indiana (2nd overall) should’ve been in the same bracket. The Committee made a point to switch Iowa and Utah during its reveal to avoid the two teams playing again. Because of that, Iowa won’t have to face the Hoosiers again before the Final Four.

Iowa should also hope to avoid being in South Carolina’s bracket for a potential Elite Eight game. The Gamecocks and Hoosiers have separated themselves as the two top teams in the country heading to March. One of them could falter, but it’s much more likely that other teams do.

There are some strange results in this reveal. In the first one, Ohio State was at 16th overall. Since then, the Buckeyes were blown out by Indiana, beat Penn State by 12, and beat #16 Michigan by 13. The Michigan win was big obviously, but big enough to move Ohio State up 4 places? That Michigan win is Ohio State’s only real positive result since it lost to Iowa a few weeks ago. Otherwise the Buckeyes have been in a tailspin.

Utah at #4 overall seems almost baffling. Utah was 6th in the first reveal; since then the Utes have beaten Washington (a bubble team) and Washington State (a team similar to Purdue) at home, lost to #15 Arizona on the road, and narrowly beat an Arizona State team that is 7-18 overall and 0-16 in conference.

Utah’s placement at #4 overall shows two things in my mind: 1) there is no clear 4th best team in the country, and 2) the gap between Utah at 4 and Iowa at 9 isn’t very big. If Iowa beats Indiana on Sunday, then wins the Big Ten Tournament, I think there is a very good chance Iowa could still grab that 4th overall spot.