WBB Tip Time Preview
#8 IOWA STATE CYCLONES (6-1) at #10 IOWA HAWKEYES (6-3)
TIME: 6:00pm
TV: ESPN2 – Beth Mowins and Debbie Antonelli
SERIES: Iowa leads the series 29-23 (lost 77-70 last year)
HAWKEYES TALK CY-HAWK GAME: HawkeyeReport - Iowa talks upcoming Cy-Hawk game (rivals.com)
BEHIND ENEMY LINES (with Connor Ferguson): HawkeyeReport - Behind Enemy Lines (rivals.com)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.2 PPG, 49.6% FG, 35.2% 3PT, 13.0 TO IOWA STATE: 84.3 PPG, 45.1% FG, 32.6% 3PT, 13.1 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.9 PPG, 41.2% FG, 32.5% 3PT, 14.9 TO, +6.2 REB MARGIN IOWA STATE: 62.1 PPG, 36.1% FG, 36.9% 3PT, 14.9 TO, +12.9 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 28.2 PPG, 7.1 REB, 6.9 AST, 48.3% FG, 32.9% 3PT
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 5.2 PPG, 20.6% 3PT
6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.1 PPG, 3.4 REB, 2.7 AST, 43.5% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.4 PPG, 5.6 REB, 41.3% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 16.0 PPG, 7.3 REB, 67.4% FG
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
5’11 G Emily Ryan – 12.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 7.1 AST, 52.8% FG
6’0 G Lexi Donarski – 11.9 PPG, 3.7 AST, 28.6% 3PT
5’11 G Denae Fritz – 7.3 PPG, 4.9 REB, 33.3% FG
6’1 F Ashley Joens – 19.9 PPG, 9.3 REB, 42.7% FG, 37.5% 3PT
6’6 C Stephanie Soares – 16.3 PPG, 9.0 REB, 56.8% FG, 36.8% 3PT
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: G Gabbie Marshall
The Hawkeyes have been anxiously awaiting the game where Gabbie Marshall comes out and hits 4-5 three pointers to get back to her normal form. Unfortunately, it hasn’t happened yet. Marshall is just 7/34 (20.6%) from behind the arc this season, including 0/5 over the past two games.
Looking at the stats, Iowa fares better in the win column when Gabbie knocks down some shots from long range. The Hawkeyes are 17-4 (.810) when she makes 3+ three pointers. However, they are just 28-13 (.683) when she plays 15+ minutes and makes just 0-1 three pointers.
Gabbie is too good of a shooter to struggle for this long of a stretch and if the Hawkeyes are going to reach their goals this year, they need her on the offensive end of the floor. One of their goals is to win the in-state games and tonight is the biggest one. Would be the perfect time to break out of a shooting slump.
IOWA STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: G Lexi Donarski
Lexi Donarski will be a factor on both ends of the floor tonight. She will be tasked with guarding Caitlin Clark and while Caitlin will score her fair share of points, how she gets them could be a huge factor. Is it 34 points on 11/23 shooting like the 2020 game or 26 points on 10/26 shooting like last season?
On the offensive end, much like Gabbie Marshall, Donarski is still looking to get things cooking. The career 37.3% three-point shooter is shooting just 28.6% from behind the arc this season. Still, she is shooting 7.0 shots from deep per game, which is up from 6.7 last season. The Hawkeyes have to make sure they know where Donarski is on the floor because she is going to get her shots up and she has the ability to hit them at a high rate.
KEY MATCHUP: Stephanie Soares vs Monika Czinano
This matchup was talked about more than any other during the Monday press conference and both players are facing tough tests. For Czinano, she has faced a number of talented post players early in this season, but Soares is a unique challenge with her ability to step out to the perimeter. For Soares, she is facing her first real big challenge of the season in the post, and it is someone that has led the country in field goal percentage in back-to-back years.
This is going to be a chess match all night. How does Soares defend Czinano? Do the Cyclones try to clog the paint like other Iowa opponents have? Then on the other end, how does Czinano do rebounding against Soares who is averaging 9.0 boards per game? Do the Cyclones try to draw Czinano towards the perimeter and how does Lisa Bluder respond to that? I don’t know the answer to these questions, but the outcomes of each will have a large impact on the result of the game.
THE PICK
This game has been circled on the calendar since the schedule was released in July. It’s going to be an electric environment and two top 20 teams should send the crowd home having seen a close game.
Ashley Joens is once again the top player on a very good Cyclone team. She ranks 25th in scoring in the country and she does it at all three levels. 40.4% from 2pt range, 37.5% from 3pt range and 90.9% from the free throw line. Joens is averaging 19.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, but she is searching for her first ever Cy-Hawk win in Iowa City and tonight is her last chance to do it.
Surrounding Joens is four more starters capable of having a big impact on the game and it starts with the guards. Emily Ryan is averaging 12.4 points per game, which ranks third on the team, but what stands out about her game is her assists. She is averaging 7.2 assists per game, while her 3.57 ast/to ratio ranks 8th in the country. A category she finished in the top 40 of last season.
Lexi Donarski has already been mentioned previously, but she is averaging 11.9 points and 3.7 assists per game. Despite her slow start from behind the three-point line, Donarski is going to get her shots off and the Hawkeyes have to make them tough shots. She is averaging 10.4 shots per game. Denae Fritz is the final guard in the starting rotation, and she is coming off an injury that kept her to just three appearances last season. She is averaging 7.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, but is shooting just 33.3% from the floor through seven games. Fritz struggled last time out against SIU Edwardsville (2/12), but will be looking to be that “surprise” player that steps up.
Stephanie Soares has been a big addition to the Cyclone lineup and has filled up the stat sheet through seven games. 16.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game, including a 56.8% shooting percentage and 36.8% from behind the arc. The NAIA transfer will be playing in her first game in a hostile road environment.
Off the bench, the Cyclones will use three players led by 6’3 F Morgan Kane. Although she is playing just 10.4 points per game, her production has been notable. Kane is averaging 15.9 points and 18.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. 6’2 F Nyamer Diew is averaging 3.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 18.8 minutes per game, but has struggled a bit with turnovers and fouls. 5’10 G Maggie Espenmiller-McGraw averages 12.7 minutes per game and 20/24 (83.3%) of her shots have come from the 3pt line.
Here is a look at some advanced stats…
2pt FG: Iowa 3rd (59.2%) Iowa State 10th (56.2%)
3pt FG: Iowa 61st (35.2%) Iowa State 117th (32.6%)
3pt Rate: Iowa State 12th (47.0%) Iowa 53rd (40.0%)
- The Cyclones shoot it from outside as much as anyone in the country, but that comes with a caveat. You have to make them. They are 18/67 (26.8%) over the last two games, but on the other hand, they shot 27/64 (42.2%) over their two-game stretch against Northern Iowa and Columbia.
TO: Iowa 25th (13.0) Iowa State 28th (13.1)
Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa State 12th (113.9) Iowa 16th (112.3)
Def Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa State 76th (83.8) Iowa 178th (91.3)
- Both teams have faced their fair of challenges so far this year. Iowa has faced top 100 offenses, while Iowa State has faced four. The Hawkeyes, however, have faced two top 15 offenses in the last three games.
Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 45th (76.6) Iowa State 97th (74.0)
Off Rebounding: Iowa State 54th (36.7%) Iowa 313th (25.2%)
Def Rebounding: Iowa 2nd (80.4%) Iowa State 11th (77.1%)
This one has all of the makings of a four-quarter battle. The same type of game that has taken place each of the last five seasons (4.8-point average margin victory). As easy as it is to be enticed by Ashley Joens vs Caitlin Clark or Monika Czinano vs Stephanie Soares, this game is Iowa vs Iowa State. It’s a battle between two of the top teams in the country and the game may come down to contributions that come from the third, fourth or fifth options. Lexi Donarski, Denae Fritz and Emily Ryan for Iowa State. McKenna Warnock, Kate Martin, Gabbie Marshall and Hannah Stuelke for Iowa. Maybe it’s a big night from one of them that makes the difference.
The big keys for Iowa? Limits turnovers, keep the Cyclones off the offensive glass and put together a good defensive effort for a full 40 minutes.
Warren Nolan projects Iowa to win 79-75 and the average score over the last nine years is 76-69. I’ve been on the fence about this one for a while, but I think a crowd of 13,000+ plus makes itself heard and the Hawkeyes hit a big shot or two late. IOWA 81 IOWA STATE 77