Although it feels like the season just began a few weeks ago, we have reached the final week of the regular season and the Iowa Hawkeyes welcome Indiana to Duane Banks Field to wrap things up. Coach Rick Heller and his squad find themselves right on the bubble, squarely in the NCAA tournament conversation. That makes these final three games very important for both Big Ten Tournament seeding and NCAA at-large chances.

Here is a quick look at their Big Ten Tournament odds going entering the weekend…

It has been a bit of a disappointment this season for Indiana, as they sit at 25-27 and 10-11 in Big Ten play. They are still fighting to secure a spot in Omaha next week and are coming off a series win at home against Minnesota, as well as a midweek win over Illinois State.

Thursday Pitching Matchup – rSoph Adam Mazur vs Sr Braydon Tucker

Mazur has helped lead the Hawkeyes to six straight Friday victories and has posted a 1.18 ERA in Big Ten play. In 53.2 innings of work against conference opponents Mazur has struck out 51 and walked just ten, while allowing just seven earned runs. Last week against Michigan State, he went 7.0 scoreless innings, including seven strikeouts to two walks and just four hits. He will look to continue his run of great pitching as the season hits its most important stretch.

The Hoosiers will go with Braydon Tucker on the mound for the Thursday opener, which is a bit of a surprise and a strategic move by HC Jeff Mercer. The senior has made just three starts on the season and none of them have been in the series opening role. On the season, Tucker has posted a 6.25 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .283 off of him, including 13 doubles, which is the most on the team. Tucker has gone 4.0 innings three times in 18 total appearances.

Friday Pitching Matchup – rSr Dylan Nedved vs rJr Jack Perkins

Coach Rick Heller will turn to Dylan Nedved for the #2 role in the series after moving him to the bullpen just over a month ago. Connor Schultz has been struggling, allowing 13 earned runs over his last 5.2 innings pitched. It was just a move that had to be made in attempt to add some stability to the middle of the weekend rotation. Nedved has a 3.90 ERA on the season and had three really good starts earlier in the year against UC Irvine, Michigan and Illinois. The senior has 62 strikeouts to 24 walks in 57.2 innings, while allowing two runs or less in 14 of his 17 outings.

Throughout the season Jack Perkins has bounced back and forth between the Friday and Saturday spots in the starting rotation. After starting in the series opening role for the last four weeks, the Hoosiers are going to play the odds and slot Perkins in the #2 spot. HC Jeff Mercer is figuring Mazur will beat whoever is on the mound for them Thursday, so they want to try to steal a win with their series opening starter in game two. On the season, Perkins has posted a 4.75 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, while he has 77 strikeouts to 42 walks over his 72.0 innings of work. The good news for Iowa is that he has allowed 3+ runs in four of his last six starts, while walking 3+ in five of his last six starts. Minnesota knocked Perkins for six runs on five hits and four walks over 5.0 innings last week.

Saturday Pitching Matchup – Soph Ty Langenberg vs TBA

After back-to-back quality starts, Langenberg was tagged for five earned runs on five hits in just 1.0 inning of work against Michigan State last weekend. On the season, Ty has a 3.96 ERA and 65 strikeouts to just 16 walks, however his four bad starts on the year have been in the last six weeks. The Hawkeyes will need him to bounce back this weekend and give them a shot to win Saturday night.

Indiana has not yet announced a starter for Saturday’s season finale, but Bradley Brehmer has started 12 games for the Hoosiers this season, so he is the leading candidate. Brehmer has posted a 6.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, while he is the best on the staff at limiting walks. In 61.2 innings, he has struck out 66 and walked 29.

Breaking Down the Hoosiers

Indiana comes into the weekend hitting .283 as a team with 66 home runs, which ranks 106th and 55th in the country. They can light up a scoreboard, as they average 7.48 runs and 15.9 baserunners per game. OF Carter Mathison (.272) and DH/C Matthew Ellis (.272) are the most dangerous bats in the lineup, as the two have combined for 33 home runs and 110 RBIs on the season. They are first and second on the team in strikeouts, but have both drawn more than 40 walks/hit by pitches, which gives them both on-base percentages above .400. Ellis, however, is hitting just .216 over his last 11 games.

OF Bobby Whalen joins Ellis as the only other player on the Hoosiers to start every game this season. Whalen leads the team with 68 hits, as well as 22 stolen bases. He comes into the game with a .305 batting average and 33 RBIs. SS Phillip Glasser (.348) and 3B Josh Pyne (.320) are among the top three on the team in batting average, while Glasser has reached base in 37 of his 40 games played. Pyne leads the team with 17 doubles, while he is second on the team in hits (63) and RBIs (50).

OF Hunter Jessee comes into the series on an absolute tear over his last 13 games, going 22/52 (.423) with a .508 on-base percentage. Jessee has reached base in 13 of his last 15 games. 1B Brock Tibbitts (.295, .411 OBP, 9 HR) and 2B Tyler Doanes (.262, 11 SB) are other names to expect in the starting lineup. OF Samuel Murrison (.247) and C Peter Serruto (.127) are the most likely options to pinch-hit.

Indiana’s pitching staff has struggled for most of the season, and they come into the weekend with a 6.88 ERA. That ranks all the way down at 238th in the country, while they will be going up against and Iowa pitching staff that ranks 5th. They rank 215th with a 1.70 team WHIP and feature just two pitchers with under a 5.00 ERA.

Ty Bothwell is the Hoosiers best arm out of the bullpen, posting a 4.01 ERA on the season. He has accumulated 55 strikeouts to 28 walks in 42.2 innings of work, while holding opponents to a .193 batting average. The thing going in the Hawkeyes favor is that Bothwell started the Sunday matchup against Minnesota and threw 111 pitches over 7.0 innings, so he is likely not available until the series finale on Saturday.

Grant Holderfield leads Indiana with 24 appearances this season and comes in with a 6.37 ERA. Holderfield opened the year with six scoreless outings in his first seven appearances, but since has allowed a run in 12 of 17 appearances. He has 52 strikeouts to 22 walks in 41.0 innings, but opponents are hitting .275 against him.

Reese Sharp has worked the most innings of anyone in the Indiana bullpen and is their strikeout arm. In 47.1 innings of work, Sharp has struck out 65 batters, which is good for 12.4 SO/9. Despite that, he has allowed the most extra base hits on the pitching staff with 22, including allowing eight home runs.

Luke Hayden (5.47 ERA), Nathan Stahl (9.49), John Modugno (9.84) and Ryan Kraft (10.00) are other names out of the bullpen that could see some time on the mound. It is worth noting, despite these numbers, that Michigan State’s Sunday starter Harrison Cook allowed one run over 6.0 innings against the Hawkeyes and entered the game with a 7.86 ERA.

Final Thought

Set the Over/Under for the weekend at 2.5. The Hawkeyes are as good as anyone at winning series in conference play and have won 13 of their last 17 series dating back to last season. However, just three of those have been converted into sweeps. This weekend, a sweep would be a large step towards getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. To do it, Coach Heller needs Mazur to be himself, while also getting a big start from Nedved and a bounce back from Langenberg. If that happens and the offense can score runs on a vulnerable Indiana pitching staff, then Iowa will have a shot at the sweep.