Published Oct 21, 2023
What We're Watching: No. 24 Iowa vs Minnesota
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

Iowa plays for its second rivalry trophy in as many weeks on Saturday (2:30 PM CT, NBC), with Minnesota coming to Iowa City to try and end the Hawkeyes' eight-game winning streak in the series. Iowa took control of the West division with its win over Wisconsin last week, but a loss to Minnesota could make the West race far more wide open in November.

So what will we be watching as Iowa takes on Minnesota?

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HOW LOW CAN IT GO?

Points are expected to be a rare and precious commodity in this game. The game is set to feature a historically low total of 30.5 points, the lowest total for a college football game in the last two decades. Five of Iowa's seven games have gone under the total this season and three of Minnesota's six games have also gone under.

These are two teams that do not light up the scoreboard -- 11Kal Their recent history suggests a game without many points, either -- Iowa eked out a 13-10 win in Minneapolis last season.

This game is set to feature two teams that struggle to move the ball (especially through the air; Minnesota ranks 130th in passing offense and Iowa ranks 131st) and put points on the board. It's likely that this game could be a war of attrition won by the team that blinks first.

WINNING THE GROUND GAME

Last week we highlighted the ground game battle between Iowa and Wisconsin as one of the key factors in determining who would win the game. The team with the most rushing yards had gone 11-1 in that game since 2009 entering last weekend; that record is now 12-1 after Iowa almost doubled up Wisconsin rushing yards (200 to 104) in a 15-6 victory.

There isn't a similar stat for the Iowa-Minnesota series. Iowa has won the last eight in a row in the series, but they've been out-rushed by the Gophers in three of those eight games. Most recently, the rushing stat has been extremely lopsided in favor of the Gophers, though it hasn't benefited them on the scoreboard. Minnesota outran Iowa 189 to 71 in 2021 and outgained them by over 250 yards (312 to 59) last season.

Still, it feels like the rushing game will be pivotal in this game. Iowa ranks just 10th in the Big Ten in rushing (130.9 ypg) and yards per carry (3.9 ypc), but the running game has unquestionably been the healthier part of the Hawkeye offense and has been a legitimate strength over the last two games -- Iowa has gained over 180 yards on the ground in each of the last two games.

Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 5th in the Big Ten in rushing (180.5 ypg) and 6th in yards per carry (4.4 ypc). That said, the Gophers have been slowed down by Nebraska (2nd, 75.8 ypg) and Michigan (3rd, 91.0 ypg) -- the Big Ten's second- and third-best run defenses. Nebraska held Minnesota to 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2 ypc) and Michigan held the Gophers to 117 yards on 39 carries (3.0 ypc).

One caveat: the Gophers also didn't have freshman phenom RB Darius Taylor in those games against Nebraska or Michigan. Taylor had just one carry against the Huskers and missed the Michigan game (and the Louisiana-Lafayette game the week before) due to a leg injury. In the three full games he has played this season, Taylor has racked up 532 yards and four touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. His status for Saturday is unclear, but if he is available, he would be an enormous boost to the Minnesota ground game.

Iowa hasn't been one of the Big Ten's stiffest run defenses this season, though -- the Hawkeyes rank 9th in run defense (127.3 ypg) and 8th in yards per carry (3.6 ypc). After giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Penn State and almost 5.0 ypc to Michigan State, the run defense has been stiffer over the last two weeks -- allowing 96 yards and 2.4 yards per carry to Purdue and 104 yards and 3.7 yards per carry to Wisconsin.

Minnesota and Iowa have pass offenses that are not just the worst in the Big Ten (13th and 14th, respectively), they're among the worst in the nation -- Minnesota ranks 130th (132.8 ypg) and Iowa ranks 131st (116.6 ypg). Both of these teams struggle to move the ball through the air, so the team that can move the ball more effectively on the ground is likely to go home with Floyd of Rosedale.

CAN IOWA EXPLOIT MINNESOTA'S SHAKY DEFENSE?

There are a few reasons that this game has a historically low point total in Vegas -- namely, two offenses that can't score points and a sturdy Iowa defense that ranks 10th nationally in scoring defense (14.9 ppg). One of those reasons is not the Minnesota defense, which ranks 10th in the Big Ten and 77th nationally in scoring defense (26.7 ppg). Minnesota is also 11th in the Big Ten in total defense (373.2 ypg) and 14th in the league in yards per play (6.2 ypp).

But Minnesota has had the misfortune of playing some of the nation's better scoring offenses, too. The Gophers have played opponents that currently rank 10th (Michigan), 15th (North Carolina), and 24th (Louisiana-Lafayette) nationally in scoring offense. Those three teams combined for 107 points against the Gophers.

The Gophers' other three opponents this season currently rank 122nd (Nebraska and Eastern Michigan) and 108th (Northwestern) nationally in scoring offense. Those three teams combined to score 53 points against Minnesota, including just 16 from Nebraska and Eastern Michigan. Given that Iowa's offense has a stronger resemblance to the Nebraska and Eastern Michigan offenses than the Michigan or North Carolina, those defensive stats are not as comforting as they first looked.

The Minnesota defense has definitely shown a propensity to spring leaks this season -- the Gophers are coming off a game against Michigan in which they allowed 52 points and almost eight yards per play (7.7). That's a reason for optimism for the very beleaguered Iowa offense... but it also doesn't seem like Iowa has the offensive weapons to exploit Minnesota's defensive weaknesses.

HOW MUCH JUICE DOES IOWA STILL HAVE?

The Hawkeyes enter this game running on fumes a bit. Saturday's game will be their eighth game in eight weeks. Physically, this team is battered -- Iowa will enter this game without its starting quarterback to begin the season and its top two tight ends (also their top two receiving options, period). On defense, injuries have shrunk the depth chart at defensive tackle and cornerback as well. Iowa badly needs a week off to rest up and heal a bit before the season's closing stretch.

Mentally, Iowa is also coming off a draining and emotional victory over Wisconsin in Madison last week. The Wisconsin win came after tense victories over Michigan State and Purdue as well. It's fair to wonder how much energy Iowa has left in the tank right now.

Iowa players have said the right things all week about the 24-hour rule, taking the season one game at a time, and focusing on the opponent at hand. And so far this season Iowa has done an impressive job of maintaining that focus week in and week out. But the season is a roller coaster and maintaining that energy and focus is difficult, especially over eight straight weeks.