Several of the most interesting (and most important) questions for the Iowa offense in 2023 revolve around the passing game. The Hawkeye passing attack has struggled mightily in recent seasons (and sunk to historic lows last year), but there's also been a lot of turnover in the passing game since last season.
Out: starting quarterback Spencer Petras (missing the season due to possible career-ending injury) and leading receiving option Sam LaPorta (NFL)
In: transfer quarterback Cade McNamara and transfer receiving options Erick All, Seth Anderson, and Kaleb Brown (plus a handful of incoming freshmen as well)
Obviously, the most important thing is for the passing game to be significantly improved overall -- barely 2000 yards on 55% completion percentage with 7 touchdowns against 7 interceptions is just too anemic to sustain success -- and that will require strong performances from everyone on the offense.
Still -- someone has to be best in class when it comes to receiving, so let's speculate on who might lead Iowa in receiving in 2023. (NOTE: We'll be measuring "leading in receiving" by looking at receiving yards, since that's how stats tend to rank receivers and because that's also what most people refer to when talking about a player leading a team or conference (or league) in receiving.)
But first, let's take a look back at history and see who the top receivers have been each season since Brian Ferentz became offensive coordinator in 2017.
RECEIVING LEADERS UNDER BRIAN FERENTZ
Some takeaways:
* Tight ends have led Iowa in receiving in three of the last six seasons and placed in the top two in receiving yards in five of those six seasons.
* 2019 was the only season that didn't feature a tight end among the top three in receiving yards. A key reason for that was that Iowa had two excellent tight ends -- T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant -- leave school early to enter the NFL Draft after the 2018 season. That left Iowa with a depleted tight end room, with freshman Sam LaPorta as the main option.
* 2019 was also slightly unusual in that an outside receiver (Ihmir Smith-Marsette) led the team in receiving. (He also did so in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.) Under Brian Ferentz, the Iowa passing offense has tilted much more heavily toward tight ends and inside/slot receivers than outside receivers. It's a bit of a chicken-or-egg question: has Iowa not had standout outside receivers because the offense doesn't feature them or have the outside receivers not been good enough most seasons to be heavier contributors to the passing attack? The answer is probably a bit of both.
Let's take a look at the options to lead Iowa in receiving in 2023.
THE CONTENDERS
LUKE LACHEY
The case for Luke Lachey: Luke Lachey is Iowa's leading returning receiving threat, after ranking second on the team last season with 398 yards. (He's also probably the top touchdown threat and red zone target after leading the team with four scores in 2022.) Lachey has greater familiarity with the Iowa playbook and schemes than any other target aside from Nico Ragaini.
The case against Luke Lachey: Lachey developed a good rapport with Petras last season, especially near the end of the season when LaPorta was sidelined due to injury (Lachey had 12 catches for 166 yards against Minnesota and Nebraska), but he'll have to develop a new rapport with McNamara this season.
ERICK ALL
The case for Erick All: All is the only receiving threat on the Iowa roster that's actually caught a pass from Cade McNamara in a college football game. Both All and McNamara came to Iowa from Michigan via the transfer portal, and they played together extensively in 2021 (injuries limited both in 2022). All had 38 receptions for 437 yards and two touchdowns in 2021, when McNamara was Michigan's primary quarterback. Additionally, All and McNamara are close off the field as well; there's little doubt that McNamara will likely have a higher degree of comfort with All than any other receiving threat this season.
The case against Erick All: Aside from McNamara, All has all-new teammates, as well as a new playbook to learn. Injuries forced him to miss most of the 2022 season and limited him for part of spring practice, though he's fully healthy now. He also has significant competition at his position in the form of Lachey, although Iowa's willingness to use two-tight end sets does mitigate a lot of the concern there.
NICO RAGAINI
The case for Nico Ragaini: Ragaini is the old man of the Iowa passing game; no other contributor has been around Iowa City as long as him. 2023 will be the sixth different season in which Ragaini has caught a pass for Iowa, thanks to redshirts and COVID years. He should have greater familiarity with the Iowa playbook and passing schemes than anyone else in the Iowa offense.
The case against Nico Ragaini: Ragaini was a popular target for Spencer Petras, but again -- Petras is out and McNamara is in for 2023. Ragaini will have to develop a brand-new connection with McNamara this season. Iowa has also upgraded the talent in the receiver room with the transfer additions of Brown and Anderson; if they're able to hit the ground running, they could eat into the number of snaps that Ragaini receives.
DIANTE VINES
The case for Diante Vines: Diante Vines has a leg up on the newcomers to the Iowa passing game since he has been in the program for a few years and should have increased familiarity with the Iowa playbook and schemes as a result. He missed the first half of last season due to injury, but saw more action in the back half of the season (though he finished with just 10 receptions for 94 yards). He was reportedly having a strong fall practice last year before getting hurt.
The case against Diante Vines: Vines may know the playbook a bit better than the newcomers in the Iowa passing game for now, but that advantage could evaporate quickly if they're able to get on the field and pick things up quickly. Also, with increased competition at wide receiver, Vines is likely to see more limited snaps, which would cut into the volume he would need to lead Iowa in receiving.
KALEB BROWN
The case for Kaleb Brown: The argument for Kaleb Brown leading Iowa in receiving in 2023 begins and ends with his recruiting pedigree. He was a four-star receiver ranked 91st overall in the country out of high school who chose Ohio State. When he transferred to Iowa, he became the highest-rated receiver the Hawkeyes have ever had on the roster in the Kirk Ferentz Era. If his actual talent and on-field production matches his recruiting hype, he could produce huge numbers for the Hawkeyes.
The case against Kaleb Brown: Inexperience and unfamiliarity are the two big strikes against Brown leading Iowa in receiving in 2023. Brown is still just a redshirt freshman who caught one pass for five yards last season; now he's also on a new team with a new playbook, new teammates, and a new quarterback. It wouldn't be a shock if it took him some time adjust. Also, Brown is a speed merchant who should hit on a few big plays, but will he see enough of those -- or play enough total snaps -- to lead Iowa in receiving? That's certainly a question mark.
SETH ANDERSON
The case for Seth Anderson: He had more production in 2022 -- 42 receptions, 612 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns -- than any other player on this list.
The case against Seth Anderson: All of that production came on a different team (Charleston Southern) and against FCS competition. Anderson is making the leap from FCS to the Big Ten and maintaining his former level of production against much tougher competition figures to be a big challenge. Anderson also missed most of spring practice due to injury, which cost him an opportunity to gain more familiarity with the Iowa playbook and passing routes.
OTHER
The case for another player leading Iowa in receiving: It is technically possible that a player not among the six players listed here leads Iowa in receiving in 2023. There will be other receiving threats on the team, after all.
The case against another player leading Iowa in receiving: A freshman hasn't led Iowa in receiving in decades and it's just too unlikely that any player other than one of the six listed here will play enough snaps to lead Iowa in receiving.
THE PICK
Again, the goal for Iowa's passing game in 2023 is to be much stronger overall, which figures to be a team-wide effort. If Iowa can spread the ball around and have multiple receivers with 500+ yards next season, that would be excellent and a sign of a much healthier passing attack overall.
As far as who emerges as the leader receiver from that passing attack... I think the most likely picks right now are either Lachey or All. It would be a good sign if it ends up being a wide receiver instead because that should mean that Iowa is better able to stretch the field offensively -- but right now the wide receiver options have too many question marks.
It's hard to say which receivers will click with McNamara and which ones will get the reps in formations with just one or two wide receivers on the field. Conversely, Lachey and All figure to each get plenty of snaps, especially if Iowa uses a lot of of two-tight end sets (and it would not be surprising to see Brian do so, especially given the success he had with Fant and Hockenson back in 2018). They should get the volume of opportunities necessary to lead the offense in receiving. And if I have to pick just one of them... I'll go with Lachey, given his strong play at the end of 2022.