INDIANAPOLIS — There's no "one way" to pull an upset, but under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has had a formula for giant-slaying. The key, broadly speaking, is taking advantage of opportunities to make game-changing plays, winning on special teams, and winning the turnover battle.
On Saturday, Iowa had those opportunities to flip the game against Michigan. Iowa had chances to make plays on special teams. Iowa had chances to turn star QB JJ McCarthy over.
The Hawkeyes couldn't convert on any of those opportunities en route to a 26-0 loss in the Big Ten Championship Game against the Wolverines. Iowa is now 10-3 as it awaits official word on a bowl destination — almost certainly Orlando and the Citrus Bowl.
Most Hawkeye upsets involve turning the opponent over, often in their own territory and/or for a score. A pick-six famously opened up scoring in Iowa's 55-24 rout of Ohio State in 2017, and the Kinnick Stadium upsets of Penn State in 2008 and Michigan in 2016 both featured key late picks.
On Saturday, the opportunities were scant — but they were there.
"There wasn't really a surprise," defensive back Sebastian Castro said. "They just didn't want to turn the ball over, and they did a pretty good job of that."
McCarthy spent most of the game throwing underneath Iowa's coverage, and the end result was a 22-for-30 passing performance for 147 yards — hardly the stuff of legend, that, but enough to keep chains moving (nine of Michigan's 12 first downs came on passes) and not fuel the Hawkeyes' upset bid.
McCarthy only threw one incompletion in the first quarter, but it was a doozy — he looked for TE Colston Loveland deep to the right, but the throw sailed just enough to deflect off of Loveland's hands — and just out of reach of Castro, who was deep in coverage. Not a lack of effort or execution on Castro's part, but an instance of a ball control play failing to materialize.
“There are so many things that can happen in football during the game," Castro said. "We want turnovers and they help us win, but at the end of the day you just have to keep on playing until the next play.”
Michigan would later score a field goal on that drive, its first points of the game.
The other play, though, was linebacker Nick Jackson — who had an otherwise superb evening in defeat — dropping a McCarthy pass that hit him straight in the hands, early in the second half. Jackson likely wouldn't have scored, per se; he had 62 yards in front of him before the end zone. But with a clean interception in his hands, a return into field goal range would have been possible.
"Tonight certainly wasn't our night," head coach Kirk Ferentz said. "We knew we came in here needing to play pretty much a flawless game. Obviously didn't do that."
The drop didn't make much of an immediate difference to Michigan's drive; the Wolverines punted two plays later. But in true Complementary Football™ fashion, that Michigan punt was downed at the Iowa 6, and the second play of that drive led to the now-infamous video review that gave Michigan the ball inside the Iowa red zone.
That fumble, which led to a Brian Ferentz sideline tirade that was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct and gave Michigan the ball at the Iowa 6 instead of the 12, was one of two Deacon Hill turnovers on the day; the second came on a strip sack in the fourth quarter after the game was well in hand for Michigan.
"I'm not going to say anything about the refs," Hill said after the game. "It's not my position. We've gotta control what we can control. But the turnovers, gotta eliminate those and maybe it's a different game."
Hill's two lost fumbles were tough. But as damaging as the reviewed play was, Iowa was still 91 yards away from the end zone, and it might as well have been 91 miles. Ultimately, there's also not a huge difference between a 26-0 shutout loss and a 19-0 shutout loss.
Iowa's biggest scoring opportunity of the night, though, was also derailed by ball control problems.
With the score 10-0 Michigan midway through the second, Iowa had forced a 4th and 25 from the Wolverine 13 after Iowa DE Max Llewellyn forced McCarthy to scramble and fall for a huge loss. Michigan punter Tommy Doman's punt rocketed backwards on its bounce, even staying inbounds before a Wolverine could down it at the Michigan 38-yard line.
A Nico Ragaini 8-yard reception on the first play of that drive put Iowa on the edge of field goal position, and a score would have brought the game back to one possession in the dying minutes before halftime.
Alas, Jaziun Patterson fumbled a dumpoff pass from Hill — likely short of the line to gain — on 3rd and 2 in that series, and Michigan's recovery of that fumble was a knife through Iowa's tires.
Obviously, even in the best of circumstances Iowa's offense doesn't set its players up to succeed very often, and Saturday's gameplan of Deacon Hill almost exclusively throwing short won't convince many people that Brian Ferentz was a misunderstood genius who needed more time. Indeed, his impending departure seems almost merciful, given how the last three years have unfolded on that side of the ball.
And yet. And yet. Iowa has been 28-12 in that timespan, maddening fans and casual onlookers alike. Moreover, if Iowa takes care of the football Saturday and takes advantage of its opportunities... that could have been 29-11, and Brian could have had a B1G title ring on his way out. That six-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty was probably pretty satisfying too.
But a great defense does not need a bad offense to justify its existence. Kirk Ferentz would be wise to remember that as he seeks a new OC come January. And perhaps one day, there won't be as many ifs in Iowa's approach to giant-slaying.
