National Championship Preview: Iowa WBB vs. 1-Seed South Carolina

WHO: 1-seed South Carolina Gamecocks (37-0 overall, 16-0 SEC)
WHEN: 2:00 p.m. CT (Sunday, April 7)
WHERE: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cleveland, Ohio)
TV: ABC
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.espn.com/watch/
MOBILE: https://www.espn.com/watch/
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

For years Lionel Messi was considered one of the best soccer players in the world and an all-time great. In discussions of who was the Greatest of All Time, though, critics dinged Messi for never winning the World Cup with Argentina. Sound familiar?

Messi and his Argentina team got two opportunities to win that elusive World Cup. The first came in 2014 against Germany in a game billed as Messi vs. The Machine. The matchup earned that moniker because the German team had several great players, but lacked a single clear star. The collective excellence of Germany trumped Messi's singular brilliance and the Germans earned a 1-0 victory.

In 2022 Messi and Argentina earned another shot at World Cup glory and faced another superteam in France in the final. The French had won the World Cup in 2018, and looked poised to do so again. Messi and the Argentinians had other ideas, going blow for blow with France in regular and extra time, then winning the World Cup in a penalty shootout. Messi finally had the one major trophy that had been missing from his G.O.A.T. resume.

South Carolina is very similar to those German and French superteams. In 2022, the Gamecocks went 36-2 and won the national title. Last year, they were undefeated until the Final Four when Iowa took them down 77-73 in one of the most stunning upsets in Final Four history. Now South Carolina is undefeated again and on the precipice of another title. Only Clark and the Hawkeyes stand in their way.

All stats from this preview are from HerHoopStats.

The most impressive part of South Carolina's undefeated run this year is how different the team is from a year ago. All five of South Carolina's starters from last year have moved on. Four of those five starters were drafted in the 2023 WNBA Draft, and five total Gamecocks were selected in that draft.

Despite losing all that talent, South Carolina has once again reloaded. This year's Gamecocks squad features nine players averaging at least six points per game. Each of those nine players averages at least 15 minutes per game. This isn't a matchup like LSU or UConn with great starting lineups and no depth. The Gamecocks have a deep bench that is just as good as its starting lineup.

Iowa plans to handle South Carolina's depth in stride. "There can only be five players on the court at one time," Gabbie Marshall said. "[We're] just worrying about those five people -- what they can do well and their tendencies."

South Carolina's headliner is 6'7" center Kamilla Cardoso. Cardoso was a force in the Iowa-South Carolina game last season, scoring 14 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. This year as a starter she's averaged 14.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 2.5 bpg while shooting 59.7% on two-point attempts.

"I don't know if you can be prepared for 6'7"," Kate Martin said on Saturday. "She is the best post in the country. She's a phenomenal player and she runs the floor really well. She's gonna get some points. She's gonna get some rebounds. We just can't get discouraged in those moments."

Iowa's Hannah Stuelke will likely get the primary defensive assignment against Cardoso. Stuelke appreciated how well rounded her game is. "Her physicality, her quickness, her ability to move. She's really great at that. And her rebounding." Stuelke thought her own physicality would be a key in trying to limit Cardoso.

5'10" guard MiLaysia Fulwiley is South Carolina's second-leading scorer despite averaging just 18 minutes per game off the bench. She's averaged 11.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.1 agp, and 1.7 spg. Fulwiley has shot 49.8% on two-point attempts and 34.7% on three-point tries. In a year where freshman like Juju Watkins, Hannah Hidalgo, and Audi Crooks have dominated, Fulwiley has flown under the radar, but she's one of the best players on the #1 team in the nation.

5'9" guard Te-Hina Paopao is South Carolina's best starting guard. She averages 10.9 ppg, 3.7 apg, and 2.7 rpg. Paopao ha shot an incredible 46.2% on three-point attempts. She hasn't been quite as good on two-point tries, shooting 45.8%. Marshall will draw the defensive assignment on Paopao. "She's a great player [and] a great shooter," Marshall said.

6'3" forward Ashlyn Watkins is a wildcard for SC off the bench. In under 21 minutes per game, the sophomore has averaged 9.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 2.5 bpg, while shooting 55.1% on two-point tries. She had 20 (!) rebounds against NC State.

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South Carolina has averaged 74.1 possessions per 40 minutes this season, which ranked 50th nationally. Some teams have preferred to slow things down against Iowa, but South Carolina likes to play fast too.

On offense, South Carolina has averaged 85.1 ppg, which ranks 3rd nationally. The Gamecocks are a great shooting team, averaging 52.5% on two-point attempts (19th) and 39.5% on three-point tries (3rd). South Carolina isn't quite as good as LSU on the offensive glass, but they're close.

The Gamecocks have grabbed 40.4% of available offensive rebounds, which ranks 6th. They also share the ball well, as their 18.5 assists per game ranks 13th. The only place SC has struggled offensively is at the free throw line. The Gamecocks have only shot 69.2% at the stripe, which ranks 250th.

South Carolina is also great on defense. The Gamecocks have surrendered just 56.1 ppg, which ranks 11th. They are the best team in the country at defending two-point field goals, allowing opponents to make just 34.6% of those shots. Teams haven't shot any better from three-point range, converting only 26.9% of attempts from deep, which ranks 13th.

The Gamecocks are also the best defensive rebounding team in the country and have grabbed 71.6% of available defensive rebounds. SC also leads the nation in blocks per game at 7.8.

The two big keys to Iowa's 77-73 win over South Carolina last year were Iowa packing the paint defensively and South Carolina's drop coverage on Iowa's pick-and-rolls.

South Carolina was incredible in the paint last year with the pairing of Cardoso and Aliyah Boston, the eventual #1 pick in the 2023 WNBA Draft. The Gamecocks' big weakness, though, was three-point shooting. Iowa could key on SC's two best shooters, then leave Clark in the lane to help with post defense and rebounding instead of guarding SC's third guard.

The strategy wasn't flawless. South Carolina scored 46 points in the paint and had 24 second-chance points. Cardoso had 14 rebounds and was 7-of-9 from the floor. Raven Johnson hit two three-pointers in the fourth quarter when left alone to get South Carolina back in the game. But ultimately Iowa did just enough on defense to give its offense an opportunity to win.

On the other end, Iowa utilized the pick-and-roll frequently against the Gamecocks. For much of the game, the defender guarding Monika Czinano stayed in the lane while she set her screens, giving Clark room to either attack the basket or create enough space to find Czinano cutting to the basket. SC guarded Iowa's shooters tight, and Clark and Czinano feasted as a result. Clark went 10-of-14 inside the arc, while Czinano had 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the floor.

Unfortunately for Iowa, packing the paint this year won't work.

"They're a better three-point shooting team than they were last year," Martin said. "So clogging the paint like we did last year isn't what we're going to be able to do. I think we're going to mix up some things defensively [and] throw some different defenses at them, keep them on their toes."

On the other end, South Carolina's defensive strategy will be fascinating. Stuelke isn't as good on the pick-and-roll as Czinano, but did well on those plays against UConn. Clark also torched drop coverage against LSU.

But if South Carolina devotes more resources to the paint, that would gives more room for Iowa's shooters to get open looks. That's not necessarily a better option for the Gamecocks.

South Carolina advanced to the national championship game by defeating 16-seed Presbyterian (91-39), 8-seed North Carolina (88-41), 4-seed Indiana (79-75), 3-seed Oregon State (70-58), and 3-seed NC State (78-59).

Outside of the NCAA Tournament, the Gamecocks have plenty of great wins. They blew out 2-seed Notre Dame early in the season (100-71). They also have two wins over 3-seed LSU (76-70 and 79-72) and a win over 3-seed UConn (83-65).

What's most impressive about South Carolina's run is the Gamecocks' margins of victory this season. They've been utterly dominant, with just seven of their 37 victories coming by single digits, and five of those still by six or more points. Only Indiana and Tennessee kept the margin to four points or less.

The Indiana game seemed like a rout -- until it wasn't. The Gamecocks lead ballooned to 56-34 with 7:30 to play in the third quarter, and the game seemed over. Instead, the Hoosiers battled hard the rest of the way, closing the score to 74-72 before Raven Johnson hit a three for South Carolina with 53 seconds left to put the game out of reach.

South Carolina absolutely should have lost to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinal. The Gamecocks led by 23 in the second quarter, but again squandered the big lead. With 24 seconds left, Tennessee's Rickea Jackson hit a layup to put the Vols up two. South Carolina missed its next three, and Tennessee got the rebound with three seconds left. The Vols went to the line to put the game away, but missed both free throws. South Carolina got one last shot, and then this happened:

Three-point shooting. Indiana's game against South Carolina is probably Iowa's best recipe for beating this version of the Gamecocks. In that game, the Hoosiers made 13 three-pointers and shot 39.4% from beyond the arc. They went 10-of-21 from deep in the final three quarters of the game

Iowa can certainly get hot from three. If the Hawks want to win, they will need to shoot the three well to counter Cardoso inside and South Carolina's own three-point shooting.