The 2023 Iowa football season is rapidly approaching and now seems like a good time to take a stock of expectations when it comes to several statistical categories. I set up a series of over-under totals for several individual offensive and defense stats for Iowa players, as well as a handful of team stats for the Hawkeyes as a whole. I'll provide my picks on whether I think the over or under hits on these totals during the 2023 season.

This is not a particularly prolific amount of passing yards -- 2600 passing yards would have ranked around 90th in the nation last season. Over a 13-game season, it's just 200 passing yards per game. Yet over the past six seasons, Iowa's passing leader has topped 2600 passing yards just twice (2018 and 2019) and as a whole the Hawkeyes have averaged only 2236 passing yards per season. That includes just 1569 passing yards in the COVID-shortened 8-game 2020 season, but that season wasn't too far off 14-game efforts in 2021 (1880 yards) or 2022 (1725 yards).

The argument for Iowa going over 2600 passing yards mostly comes down to one thing: Michigan transfer Cade McNamara. While Iowa's style of play (as a team overall and on offense in specific) is going to inhibit gaudy passing totals, hitting 200 yards per game shouldn't be out of the question. If you believe McNamara is going to be a significant upgrade at the QB position and that the receiving options have been improved via the transfer portal (Erick All, Kaleb Brown, Seth Anderson) and that the offensive line will perform at a higher level, then the over looks tempting here.

THE PICK: Over. I can't get past 200 yards per game -- that's a bar that should not be that difficult to clear.

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This total is another one that doesn't seem like it should be that difficult to hit -- it's not even two touchdown passes per game -- but Iowa hasn't had a quarterback throw for 20+ touchdown passes since Nate Stanley in 2017 and 2018 (26 touchdowns each year). (Stanley threw for 16 touchdowns as a senior in 2019.) The Hawkeyes have averaged 16 touchdown passes per season in Brian Ferentz's six seasons as offensive coordinator.

This pick is another one where it might come down to how strongly you believe in McNamara -- and All, Brown, and Anderson. All and Luke Lachey give Iowa some very dangerous red zone targets -- at least on paper. But so did Lachey and Sam LaPorta a season ago and they combined for just five touchdowns. Will the red zone play calling be any different than it was a year ago, when Iowa had just 12 touchdowns in 27 red zone appearances?

THE PICK: Under. I'm excited to see what McNamara, Lachey, All, et al. are able to do in the passing game this season, but it's hard to have faith in 20+ passing touchdowns until we see what the red zone play calling looks like. We also need to see how good the running backs (and the QB sneak play) are in short yardage situations, as that could vacuum up several touchdowns near the goal line.

Kaleb Johnson goes into 2023 as the clear starter at running back and fresh off a freshman season in which he led the team with 779 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He was unquestionably one of the only bright spots on offense for Iowa last season. Can he crack the 1000-yard mark for an encore?

Iowa has only had two running backs in the past six seasons eclipse 1000 yards on the ground -- Akrum Wadley in 2017 (1109) and Tyler Goodson in 2021 (1151). Goodson was also on pace to top 1000 yards in the COVID-shortened 2020 season; he averaged 95 rushing yards per game that season and was on pace to run for 1200 yards in a 13-game season.

The biggest roadblocks to Johnson hitting 1000 yards have nothing to do with him -- they're the passing game and the offensive line. An improved passing game could hurt Johnson's ability to run for 1000 yards slightly if he loses opportunities -- but it could also help him if an improved passing attack prevents defenses from loading up the box to stop the Iowa run game. The bigger question is the offensive line -- can they perform at a higher level and open holes for Johnson more consistently?

There's also the possibility of other running backs -- like Leshon Williams or Jaziun Patterson -- eating into Johnson's carries and a more RB-by-committee approach emerging... but as we saw with Goodson, if Iowa has a running back that can handle a pretty heavy workload, they're not shy about leaning on him.

THE PICK: Over. I think the passing game and offensive line will be improved in 2023 -- and I also think we'll see a more confident Johnson. Topping 1000 yards for the season means running for about 80 yards per game (13-game season), and I think Kaleb will do that.

Another touchdown total that doesn't seem too difficult to hit -- but Iowa has only had a running back top 7.5 touchdowns twice since 2017. Akrum Wadley had 10 rushing touchdowns in 2017 and Mekhi Sargent had nine in 2018. Rushing touchdowns can be fickle, especially as other players -- fullbacks, back-up running backs, quarterbacks -- get carries near the end zone. (See: 2020, when Tyler Goodson had six rushing scores -- and Spencer Petras had five.)

THE PICK: Over. Again, I'm a big believer in Kaleb Johnson in 2023 and I think he'll get enough opportunities to get the ball into the end zone 8+ times this fall.

This pick is tied a bit to the McNamara-2600 passing yards pick. The more confident you are in McNamara throwing for 2600+ yards this season, the more confident you probably are in Iowa having a receiver top 700 receiving yards too. Only two receivers have topped 700 receiving yards in the last six seasons -- T.J. Hockenson with 760 in 2018 and Ihmir Smith-Marsette with 722 in 2019.

A receiver (or tight end) topping 700 yards this fall is reliant on two things: overall improvement from the Iowa passing game and one receiving option standing out above the rest. I'm much more bullish on the former than the latter. What if Luke Lachey, Erick All, Nico Ragaini, Kaleb Brown, Diante Vines, and Seth Anderson all finish between 250 and 600 receiving yards this season? That seems entirely possible and it does seem like Iowa might spread things around in the passing game, unless McNamara develops an especially potent connection with 1-2 guys.

THE PICK: Under. It's certainly possible that McNamara and a few of his receiving options develop strong bonds and he targets them early and often in games. But I think a share-the-ball approach seems more likely for now, which will hamper any one player from getting enough production to top 700 receiving yards.

Iowa players have finished the season with 7+ receiving touchdowns just twice since 2017 -- Noah Fant had 11 receiving scores in 2017 and seven more in 2018. That's right: no one but Noah Fant has caught more than seven touchdowns in a season since Brian Ferentz took over as offensive coordinator. In fact, Iowa's receiving touchdowns leader hasn't topped four scoring grabs since 2019, though that probably speaks more to the overall woes of the passing attack than anything else.

Iowa leveraged Fant extremely well in red zone situations, though he also scored some touchdowns from outside the red zone as well. I don't think anyone on this Iowa team has Fant's red zone skills, though Lachey was good near the end zone last year. Like the receiving yards total, though, this seems like another stat where a committee approach could carry the day.

THE PICK: Under. It would not shock me if McNamara developed a keen connection with Lachey or Erick All (or both!) near the goal line. But I don't think either of them will haul in more than six touchdowns.

Click here for part two of this post, featuring a few individual defensive stat picks and some team stat picks.