The 2023 Iowa football season is rapidly approaching and now seems like a good time to take a stock of expectations when it comes to several statistical categories. I set up a series of over-under totals for several individual offensive and defense stats for Iowa players, as well as a handful of team stats for the Hawkeyes as a whole. I'll provide my picks on whether I think the over or under hits on these totals during the 2023 season. You can check out the first part of this discussion (with over/under totals for several individual offensive categories) here.

28.5 ppg is not the much-discussed figure in offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz's amended contract -- that would be 25.0 ppg. But that really just establishes 25.0 ppg as the floor of what's acceptable scoring for Iowa this fall -- they should aim higher than that. 28.5 ppg isn't exactly shooting for the stars when it comes to college football scoring, but it would be a more respectable scoring average (the equivalent of four touchdowns per game).

28.5 ppg is also an average that Iowa has only exceeded twice in the past six seasons -- the Hawkeyes averaged 31.2 ppg in 2018 and 31.8 ppg in the abbreviated 2020 campaign. During Brian Ferentz's tenure as offensive coordinator, Iowa also averaged 28.2 ppg in 2017 and 25.8 ppg in 2019. That slipped to 23.4 ppg in 2021 before falling off a cliff to 17.7 ppg last year.

Given that there were no changes to Iowa's offensive coaching staff after last season and there's little reason based on offseason discussions to expect any dramatic changes to the offensive scheme or playcalling, a belief in Iowa's ability to score 29+ ppg in 2023 really comes down to personnel. Iowa went into the transfer portal and got Cade McNamara, Erick All, Kaleb Brown, and Seth Anderson to enhance the skill position options on offense.

The Hawkeyes also added Daijon Parker and Rusty Feth as transfer additions to the offensive line, where they're also hoping for improved health and added experience to result in better play. Is all that turnover in personnel what the doctor ordered in terms of improving the output of the Iowa offense? That's the bet the Hawkeyes are making this season.

THE PICK: Under. There's no pick on this list that I hope to be proven wrong about more than this one. If Iowa can score 29+ ppg in 2023, the Hawkeyes should be well on their way to an excellent season this fall. Still, the ineptitude of the offense in the last two years isn't easily forgotten -- the new faces have plenty of potential and are clear reasons for excitement this fall, but the Iowa offense needs to be in "prove it" mode right now.

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On the other side of the ball, just how good can this year's Iowa defense be? There are some significant departures from last year's incredibly stingy defense -- the defensive line lost Lukas Van Ness (to the NFL Draft) and John Waggoner (graduation), while the linebacker corps lost both Jack Campbell (also the NFL Draft) and Seth Benson (graduation). The secondary lost Riley Moss (another NFL Draft pick) and Kaevon Merriweather (graduation), too. Those players leave big shoes -- and a sizable amount of production -- to fill in 2023.

That said, the Iowa defense has also been remarkably -- and ruthlessly -- consistent under defensive coordinator Phil Parker, especially in recent years. There's been plenty of personnel turnover, but the Iowa defense has hardly skipped a beat overall. Iowa hasn't allowed over 20.0 ppg since 2015 (20.4 ppg allowed that season) and has produced some of the program's best defenses in recent seasons. The 2019 defense allowed just 14.0 ppg, the 2020 gave up only 16.0 ppg, and last year's defense permitted just 13.3 ppg. This defense excels at keeping opponents off the scoreboard.

While the 2023 defense has big shoes to fill, it has a lot of exciting players ready to step up into those voids as well. The defensive line has been one of the deepest units on the Iowa roster in recent years and even if senior leader Noah Shannon ends up missing games this fall as a result of the ongoing gambling investigation, his absence could open up more playing time opportunities for potential breakout performers Yahya Black and Aaron Graves.

Likewise, The departures of Campbell and Benson open the way for Jay Higgins and Virginia transfer Nick Jackson to make their own mark at linebacker this season. The absence of Moss and Merriweather means more minutes for Xavier Nwankpa and (probably) Jermari Harris this fall, two very promising defensive backs in their own right.

And if there's any coach on the Iowa staff who's earned the benefit of the doubt, it's Phil Parker. He's been producing outstanding secondaries in Iowa City for over two decades now and coordinating some of the nation's best defenses overall for over a decade. His track record is impeccable.

THE PICK: Under. This is the one category on this list where picking the under is a good thing and, honestly, most of it comes down to Parker. It will be a big job to keep the Iowa defense humming at the same level it's been the last few years after losing talents like Campbell, Van Ness, Moss, and Merriweather -- but Phil Parker has been doing that job (and doing it very well) for so long at this point that it feels downright foolish to bet against him.

This total seems like a gimme when you look at Jack Campbell's tackle totals over the past two seasons -- 143 in 2021, 128 last fall. In fact, the Hawkeyes have actually only had a player top 100 tackles in three of the past six seasons: the two Campbell seasons and Josey Jewell's senior season in 2017 (136 tackles).

Iowa's defense is designed to funnel tackles to the middle linebacker, but it still takes an excellent player at that position to rack up 100+ tackles. When Iowa has a future NFL Draft pick at mike linebacker, it's been relatively easy to hit that total. When they don't, though, the tackle totals have been a bit more spread out on the defensive side of the ball.

So, really, maybe this pick is about how much you believe in Jay Higgins, Campbell's replacement at MLB. If you think he's a future NFL Draft pick, then the over is the play here. If you have more doubts, then the under is probably the way to go.

THE PICK: Over. I think Higgins' final tackle total will be closer to 100 than 130+, but I do think he'll rack up triple digits. He's looked good in limited action in the past and serving as Campbell's understudy for the past few years will pay off this fall.

The interception prowess of the Doughboys of the Iowa secondary is well-known, but it's also often been more of a team-wide effort than a matter of individual brilliance. The only Iowa player in the last six seasons to have six or more interceptions in a season was Josh Jackson, who had eight picks in 2017. Dane Belton finished with five interceptions in 2021, while Cooper DeJean also had five picks in his breakout season last year.

The argument for the over here is that the pick potential for this Iowa secondary is sky-high. DeJean had five interceptions a year ago and Jermari Harris (a possible starter at the other cornerback slot) had four in 2021. Xavier Nwankpa could have his own breakout season this year and Sebastian Castro and Quinn Schulte might find themselves beneficiaries of errant throws if quarterbacks are trying to avoid the other defensive backs.

Of course, the obvious counter-argument there is that they could also all just end up spreading the interception love around. As a unit, the secondary could easily finish with 15+ interceptions -- with no single player having more than five picks.

THE PICK: Over. This is strictly a gut play, since I think the numbers would suggest that the under is the safer pick. But I think DeJean is a special player and I am a big believer in Nwankpa as well. I also think Harris has strong ballhawking skills and could really benefit if quarterbacks just decide not to throw in DeJean's direction. One of those guys breaks through with a 6+ interception season.

Phil Parker's defenses force turnovers at a high rate pretty consistently -- we know this from years of past experience. Over the last six seasons, the defense has averaged around 24 turnovers forced per season, or around two per game. 25.5 fits in the mid-range of the turnover totals over the past six years -- Iowa topped that in 2017 (26), 2018 (27), and 2021 (31), but finished below that in 2019 (21), 2020 (18), and 2022 (23).

THE PICK: Over. I'm bullish on the turnover-forcing potential of Iowa's secondary and the linebackers and defensive linemen will add to that total, as they always do.

Most of the turnovers forced by the Iowa defense come via interceptions -- around 2/3 of the total each season. 20 interceptions is squarely in the midpoint of Iowa's totals over the past six seasons -- the Hawkeyes had 21 picks in 2017, 20 in 2018, and 25 in 2021. They had just 12 in 2019, 11 in 2020, and 15 in 2022.

Iowa has ranked in the top two nationally in interceptions in three of the past six seasons (including leading the nation in 2021 and 2017). Even last year, in a "down" year with just 15 picks, Iowa ranked 14th nationally. The Doughboys -- with some help from the linebackers too -- get the job done year in and year out when it comes to getting interceptions.

THE PICK: Over. Like I said, I'm very bullish on the Iowa secondary showing some serious ballhawking ability this fall. If that happens, then 20+ interception total should be the end result.