Published Nov 16, 2023
Pickin' On The Big Ten: Week 12
Mark Hasty  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Staff Writer
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@MarkHasty

In the beginning, the Big Ten West was without form and void, and it stayed that way. Meanwhile in the East, there was nothing new under the sun.

All this struggle, all this hype and drama, and in the end, the Ohio State-Michigan winner is going to win the conference. I don't want to say we shouldn't have bothered, because not bothering would mean no football, and who wants that?

Week 12 is its own sort of liminal space. The league's best rivalries are always played in Week 13, and even though there's not a lot of drama about who's going to win the conference, there are five teams in the West that are still alive for a bowl game but haven't locked up six wins yet.

It's possible that as many as four of those five could be in must-win situations next week, up against fierce traditional rivals. Yet all this assumes that nothing unexpected happens this week. Mind you, I don't think there will be any huge surprises this weekend, but man, I've been wrong a lot lately. In fact, let's take a post-mortem look.

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WHAT I GOT RIGHT AND WHAT I GOT WRONG

This week, it's mostly the latter.

Indiana at Illinois: I said Illinois 23, Indiana 21; actual score, Illinois 48, Indiana 45.

Eh, close enough.

Rutgers at Iowa: I said Iowa 17, Rutgers 12; actual score, Iowa 22, Rutgers 0.

Look, I didn't see the offensive explosion coming, and neither did you.

Maryland at Nebraska: I said Nebraska 30, Maryland 24; actual score, Maryland 13, Nebraska 10.

Is "November Maryland" a thing like "September Maryland" is?

Michigan State at Ohio State: I said Ohio State 38, Michigan State 10; actual score, Ohio State 38, Michigan State 3.

Clearly I used up the whole week's accuracy on this one game.

Michigan at Penn State: I said Penn State 31, Michigan 28; actual score, Michigan 24, Penn State 15.

Should've listened to James Franklin when he said this was a big game.

Minnesota at Purdue: I said Minnesota 34, Purdue 17; actual score, Purdue 49, Minnesota 30.

Someday the Gophs will realize all their best prep athletes are playing hockey.

Northwestern at Wisconsin: I said Wisconsin 28, Northwestern 20; actual score, Northwestern 24, Wisconsin 10.

In my defense, I don't think anybody saw this coming.

So that's 4-3 for the second week in a row. I've not had a sub-.500 week this season but my overall record drops to 73-18 (.802). Don't worry, I can do worse, and I'm about to.

MICHIGAN STATE AT INDIANA | 11 AM CT | BTN

Which is harder to recover from: a blowout loss that was totally expected but still demoralizing (Michigan State), or a hard-fought overtime battle that you almost won, but didn't (Indiana)?

Clearly it's the former but it won't matter here. Neither team has anything to play for but pride and they'll probably both have different coaches next season. So I like IU to defend the home turf for Tom Allen one last time.

Indiana 27, Michigan State 21

NO. 3 MICHIGAN AT MARYLAND | 11 AM CT | FOX

Yes, there is absolutely a very real chance that Michigan will get caught looking ahead to Ohio State, giving Maryland a chance in this game.

And by "a chance" I mean "a chance to lose by fewer than four touchdowns."

Michigan 44, Maryland 17

PURDUE AT NORTHWESTERN | 11 AM CT | BTN

The Northwestern Wildcats are clearly the surprise team of the 2023 Big Ten season. I was expecting them to finish 3-9 at best but they still have a shot at bowl eligibility and a winning season. Now that NU has decided to go all in with David Braun as its permanent coach, here is a chance for him to reward the university by taking care of business.

But Purdue won't be an easy out; the Boilermakers did just beat Minnesota, albeit at home. Still, they put up almost half a hundred against the Gophers. I think this will be a pretty good game, but 2023 Northwestern just feels like something (mildly) special.

Northwestern 31, Purdue 24

RUTGERS AT NO. 12 PENN STATE | 11 AM CT | FS1

I could analyze this game for you, but let's face it: it's not a big game, so Penn State is a lock. Sorry, Rutgers.

Penn State 38, Rutgers 13

MINNESOTA AT NO. 2 OHIO STATE | 3 PM CT | BTN

This isn't a football game, it's a snuff film.

Ohio State 48, Minnesota 16

NEBRASKA AT WISCONSIN | 6:30 PM CT | NBC/Peacock

We all know, of course, that when Nebraska joined the conference the Husker faithful expected to compete with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. There's no question that the Huskers belonged in that company -- thirty years ago.

But even at the start of this season if you'd told Huskers fans that their game against Wisconsin would prove to be pivotal for both teams they'd have gladly accepted, since Wisconsin has been a pretty good football team for about a quarter century.

Then you would tell them that the reason it's so important is because whomever loses this game has to win their last game just to make it to a bowl, and that the two teams would have combined to lose their last five games, they would say ... well, let's give them some credit, they would say "Wait, we might go to a bowl this season?"

As for the Wisconsin fans, they probably won't want to talk about it. But maybe after the game they'll be in a better mood, since they'll probably win.

Wisconsin 20, Nebraska 17

And that leaves only ...

ILLINOIS AT IOWA | 2:30 PM CT | FS1

Let's get the panicky stuff out of the way first: Cooper DeJean is definitely out, and Illinois appears to have found a quarterback in John Paddock. But Luke Altmeyer is cleared from his injury and Bret Bielema seems to be leaning towards him instead of Paddock. This would be the sort of thing to give Iowa fana twitchy eyelids, if we didn't already know that Deshaun Lee isn't that much of a downgrade. (Then again, who isn't a downgrade from DeJean?)

So for the first time this season an opposing team will certainly throw where DeJean would be, and Illinois is a credible passing threat no matter who is under center. So I don't think 16 points will win this game. Fortunately, Illinois is soft on defense. Only Indiana and Purdue have allowed more points. That might not fix the twitchy eyelid, but we have to acknowledge that Deacon Hill played pretty well last week and the offense finally seemed to find a rhythm.

I don't know about you but I've seen this movie before: a Kirk Ferentz team that doesn't quite have it together on offense suddenly hits a groove and stays there. So I don't know about you, but my eyelid isn't twitching. Granted, my recent track record isn't promising, but I think Iowa should handle the Illini and lock up the West before P.J. Fleck is done losing to Ohio State.

Iowa 27, Illinois 20