Published Sep 14, 2023
Pickin' On The Big Ten: Week 3
Mark Hasty  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Staff Writer
Twitter
@MarkHasty

I am well aware that Some Stuff is going down at Michigan State. It’s happened often enough that I have “Michigan State’s latest scandal” in AutoText. We don’t know what we don’t know, so I’m not going to spend any time talking about what Mel Tucker may or may not have done.

Week 2 was another week of chalk for the Big Ten, at least where games played east of the Rockies is concerned. Let’s look back.

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WHAT I GOT RIGHT AND WHAT I GOT WRONG

Illinois at Kansas: I said Kansas 24. Illinois 17; actual score, Kansas 34, Illinois 23.

Again, there was some smoke and mirrors last season in Champaign. I think bowl eligibility could be a struggle for the Illini this season.

Indiana State at Indiana: I said Indiana 34, Indiana State 0; actual score, Indiana 41, Indiana State 7.

Right margin of victory, but IU failed to pitch the shutout.

Iowa at Iowa State: I said Iowa 20, Iowa State 18; actual score, Iowa 20, Iowa State 13.

Apologies for underestimating the defense like that.

Charlotte at Maryland: I said Maryland 35, Charlotte 20; actual score, Maryland 38, Charlotte 20.

Sometimes I’m good, which makes up for all the times I’m not (see Wisconsin, below).

UNLV at Michigan: I said Michigan 42, UNLV 10; actual score, Michigan 35, UNLV 7.

Is it just me or does it seem like there’s something a bit off about several Big Ten offenses early in this season?

Richmond at Michigan State: I said Michigan State 34, Richmond 13; actual score, Michigan State 45, Richmond 14.

And let’s just leave it at that.

Eastern Michigan at Minnesota: I said Minnesota 41, Eastern Michigan 21; actual score, Minnesota 25, Eastern Michigan 6.

Remember what I said a couple of scores ago about Big Ten offenses this season?

Nebraska at Colorado: I said Colorado 40, Nebraska 13; actual score, Colorado 36, Nebraska 14.

I cannot believe that anyone who saw Colorado in Week 1 could have possibly thought Nebraska stood a chance in this game.

UTEP at Northwestern: I said Northwestern 17, UTEP 13; actual score, Northwestern 38, UTEP 7.

Note to self: next time you think the oddsmakers are wrong, don’t join them.

Youngstown State at Ohio State: I said Ohio State 56, YSU 3; actual score, Ohio State 35, YSU 7.

OSU has not looked dominant in the first two weeks. Sharks are circling.

Delaware at Penn State: I said Penn State 44, Delaware 7; actual score, Penn State 63, Delaware 7.

Close enough.

Purdue at Virginia Tech: I said Virginia Tech 24, Purdue 17; actual score, Purdue 24, Virginia Tech 17.

That’s what I get for switching to a Magic Seven Ball, I suppose.

Temple at Rutgers: I said Rutgers 28, Temple 10; actual score, Rutgers 36, Temple 7.

Any comment would require thinking about Rutgers football, which I refuse to do.

Wisconsin at Washington State: I said Wisconsin 34, Washington State 9; actual score, Washington State 31, Wisconsin 22.

The Pac-12 may die, but Pac-12 After Dark never will.

So that’s 12-2 on the week, and a season total of 22-3 (.880). Let’s wreck that pretty good start, shall we? I’m sure this week’s games are more inspiring than last week’s games were.

[voice whispers in my ear]

Well, it’s football, at least.

VIRGINIA AT MARYLAND | FRIDAY 7 PM CT | FS1

Thus far this season Virginia has lost to James Madison in a squeaker and Tennessee in a laugher, while Maryland has been taking care of business, albeit against overmatched opponents. This one will be more squeaker than laugher, but I think the Terps can defend their home turf.

Maryland 34, Virginia 31

NO. 7 PENN STATE AT ILLINOIS | 11 AM CT | FOX

I live in Illinois and the very few people I know who will admit to following Illini football seem like they’re always waiting for the other shoe to drop. I can’t imagine why, other than the past 35 years of experience. It’s becoming more clear that Bret Bielema’s great season last year had more to do with a favorable schedule than anything else.

Penn State is off to a fast start, it would seem, though let me throw the cold water bucket of reality by pointing out their two wins were against West Virginia and Delaware, both in Happy Valley. Then again it’s not like -- Alexa, what is the name of Illinois’s football stadium? -- is a snakepit. Then again again, Bielema has given James Franklin all he could handle before, at Illinois, with a team that isn’t as good as this one is. So we can slow the hype train a little, but Penn State is going to win this one.

Penn State 34, Illinois 20

LOUISVILLE VS. INDIANA | 11 AM CT | BTN

(This game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. You could question whether that’s actually a neutral field, but this is Indiana we’re talking about, so it is.)

I mean, it’s not like Jeff Brohm has never beaten Indiana before. Louisville should easily win this one.

Louisville 41, Indiana 16

GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT WISCONSIN | 11 AM CT | BTN

Enters now two teams trying to reimagine their offenses, with varying degrees of success. Georgia Southern, now under former USC head coach Clay Helton, no longer runs the triple option, while Wisconsin is trying to establish a passing identity.

The Badgers’ horrible loss out on the Palouse last weekend has to sting severely, which would lead one to believe that the first soft-bellied bobo to wander into Camp Randall is utterly doomed. But Georgia Southern has the passing identity Wisconsin craves. This won’t be an easy win for the Badgers, but they’ll still win.

Wisconsin 42, Georgia Southern 24

MINNESOTA AT NO. 20 NORTH CAROLINA | 2:30 PM CT | ESPN

Often I have compared Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck to Lyle Lanley, the smarmy monorail salesman from The Simpsons. This season he has yet to change my mind, going 2-0 but not looking tremendously impressive in doing so. I think this game is where it starts to get undone for the Gophers. Yes, North Carolina has had some off-the-field distractions this week, but it’s a team that quietly does its job pretty well. I don’t expect the Gophers to win. It’ll be a competitive game, though.

North Carolina 31, Minnesota 27

NORTHWESTERN AT NO. 21 DUKE | 2:30 PM CT | ACCN

“Theirs not to reason why; theirs but to do and die.”

(You have to love Nerd Bowls like Northwestern-Duke. You drop a reference to Tennyson’s “The Charge of the Light Brigade” and their fans have to pretend they get it.)

Duke 48, Northwestern 10

VIRGINIA TECH AT RUTGERS | 2:30 PM CT | BTN

Virginia Tech should join the Big Ten, and so should Rutgers.

Rutgers 27, Virginia Tech 23

WESTERN KENTUCKY AT NO. 6 OHIO STATE | 3 PM CT | FOX

Western Kentucky is probably not the team Ohio State wants to face after underwhelming its fans in the first two weeks. The Hilltoppers have a fairly potent offense, matched by a relative failure to play defense. That actually is a great thing for Ryan Day since his offense has not exactly dazzled thus far this season. But I fear this game will be closer at halftime than the OSU faithful will like. No matter. In the long run OSU’s superior depth will run down the Hilltoppers and the Buckeyes will win the Battle of the Amorphous Blob Mascots.

Ohio State 41, Western Kentucky 17

NO. 8 WASHINGTON AT MICHIGAN STATE | 4 PM CT | PEACOCK

They make movies about teams in Michigan State’s situation: suddenly without Mel Tucker, their coach, facing a much-superior opponent in the Washington Huskies. In those movies, the rag-tag crew of misfits pulls it together even though No One Ever Gave Them A Chance, and they pull off the dazzling upset.

That’s in the movies. In real life, these situations usually lead to the underdog getting boatraced, and nobody cares.

Washington 44, Michigan State 20

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT NEBRASKA | 6 PM CT | FS1

Nebraska needs to get out of its horrible-loss rut, so a visit from a Northern Illinois team that lost to Southern Illinois last week -- remember, the Salukis are an FCS team -- is just what’s needed. Matt Rhule will get his first win in Lincoln, and, in true Big Ten fashion, it’ll come against a MACrifice.

You know who else got his first win against NIU? Kirk Ferentz. It was Iowa’s only win of the 1999 season.

Nebraska 38, Northern Illinois 12

BOWLING GREEN AT NO. 2 MICHIGAN | 6:30 PM CT | BTN

Bowling Green has beaten Eastern Illinois and lost to Liberty. That is the extent of research and thought which this game deserves. Michigan should stroll to an easy victory.

Michigan 52, Bowling Green 13

SYRACUSE AT PURDUE | 6:30 PM CT | NBC/PEACOCK

Dino Babers is the anti-Ferentz. The Syracuse Orange have scored over 100 points in their first two games, and let’s just forget that their opponents were Colgate and Western Michigan. If you can’t shut out a tube of toothpaste you’ve got deep issues.

Meanwhile Purdue, led by Nineties teen heartthrob Ryan Walters, gutted its way to a victory over Virginia Tech last week, which might be impressive if Tech turns out to be good. I do think the Syracuse offense will prove too much for the Boiler D to contain, though, so I like Syracuse in this one. I am prepared for the football gods to punish me for picking against Purdue two weeks in a row, though.

Syracuse 28, Purdue 27

And of course:

WESTERN MICHIGAN AT IOWA | 2:30 PM CT | BTN

I cannot possibly convey how badly I want Iowa to mollywhop Western Michigan. I don’t want to hear about 25 points per game or Brian Ferentz or any of that. I want an old school Haydenesque no mercy empty-the-playbook beatdown. I don’t want the brakes to come on until Iowa has a four-score lead.

But I know I’m not going to get it. It’s just not Kirk’s style. And Western Michigan has often seemed to have Iowa’s number.

As with last week’s game, I don’t actually think the outcome is in doubt. Western Michigan isn’t a very good football team.

Nonetheless, we know the script. It’ll be too close at halftime. The Hawkeyes will assert themselves in the third quarter, then inexplicably let WMU back into the game in the fourth. Iowa will win. I even think the Hawkeyes will put excess points on the board. But when it’s over, none of us will truly be happy.

I’ve been doing this a long time. I’d love to be wrong about this, so long as I’m wrong in a way that favors Iowa.

But I have a bad feeling I’m right.

Iowa 27, Western Michigan 24