WHO: Alabama State Hornets (0-1)
WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Friday, November 11, 2023)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: Peacock ($; Steve Burkowski and Tre Demps)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: Peacock ($)
ONLINE: Peacock ($)
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -30.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -28 (Iowa 91, Alabama State 63)
According to the KenPom rankings, Alabama State, Iowa's Friday night opponent, is very bad this season. Not just bad, but "one of the worst teams in Division I" bad -- the Hornets are 345th in the KP rankings... out of 362 total teams. The Hornets slightly edge out Florida A&M (KenPom #345) as the worst team (per KP rankings) on Iowa's schedule this season.
But... are the Hornets that bad this season? Alabama State opened the season on Monday with a 69-59 loss at Mississippi. The Hornets trailed by only five at halftime (35-30) and they kept the game close despite making just 22% (8/37) 2-point attempts. 46% of their scoring in the game (27 of 59 points) came from behind the arc, where the Hornets finished 9-for-25.
That's probably the recipe for an upset on Friday night: an usually hot night from the Hornets behind the arc, coupled with bad outside shooting from Iowa and a sluggish effort on the defensive end from the Hawkeyes. The players on this Iowa team shouldn't need much reminding that being a prohibitive favorite doesn't guarantee anything -- many of these players were on the same Iowa squad that stumbled to a 92-83 home loss to Eastern Illinois last December.
TJ Madlock, a 6'3", 190 lb guard, and CJ Hines, a 6'2", 185 lb guard, led the Hornets in scoring with 12 points against Ole Miss. 6'3", 170 lb guard Amarr Knox also added 11 points. Madlock split his damage on 2-point shots (4/11) and free throws (4/6), while Hines made a living at the free throw line (8/11). Knox led ASU in three-point shooting in the game (3/5), alongside 6'10", 190 lb big Jasteven Walker (3/7 from deep).
Madlock was one of the Hornets' best players last season -- he was second on the squad in points (11.2 ppg), rebounds (6.1 rpg), and assists 2.9 apg), and led the team in steals (1.4 spg). ASU does return last year's leading scorer (14.0 ppg), 6'4", 215 wing Isaiah Range, though he sat out the game against Ole Miss. He may be available for tonight's game.
In 2022-23, the Hornets were a dreadful shooting team (42.3 eFG%, 363rd nationally), especially on 2-point tries (40.4%, 363rd). They were also prone to getting their shots blocked (12.3% of offensive possessions, 355th nationally) and they got dominated on the offensive glass (opponents had a offensive rebound rate of 34.6%, 355th nationally).
One game is a (very) small sample size, but none of those trends changed in the least against Ole Miss -- as noted, ASU shot just 22% on 2-point shots in that loss. The Hornets also gave up 8 blocks and allowed Ole Miss to grab 17 offensive rebounds. This could be a very good matchup for Iowa's freshmen; Ladji Dembele and Owen Freeman in particular look like they could wreak havoc on defense and on the boards.
But a game like this really comes down to mindset. Is Iowa looking ahead to the weekend, or to next Tuesday's big non-conference test against #8 Creighton in Omaha? Again, we know what can happen if Iowa isn't locked in, even against an opponent that looks massively overmatched on paper -- that Eastern Illinois loss isn't even a year old yet.
If Iowa isn't looking ahead, though, this game should be another opportunity to let players up and down the roster get minutes and put up shots. The Hawkeyes should have too much size and too much shooting ability to get tripped up here -- they just need to go out and take care of business like they did against North Dakota on Monday.
