WHO: Arkansas State (1-2)
WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Friday, November 17, 2023)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: none
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: bigtenplus.com ($)
ONLINE: bigtenplus.com ($)
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -20.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -16 (Iowa 93, Arkansas State 77)
Iowa went away from the cozy confines of Carver-Hawkeye Arena and faced a significant step-up in quality earlier this week, coming away with a 92-84 loss at #8 Creighton that still offered plenty of encouragement. Now Iowa returns home for a game against a much less daunting opponent -- 1-2 Arkansas State.
This is Iowa's final game before heading to San Diego to take part in the Rady Children's Invitational and take on Oklahoma and either Seton Hall or USC next weekend. This game should be a good opportunity to shake off any lingering disappointment from the loss to Creighton and regain a little bit of confidence headed into next week.
LIKELY ARKANSAS STATE STARTING FIVE
G Freddy Hicks (6'6", 210, 15.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.3 apg, 46.9 FG%, 28.6 3FG%)
G Taryn Todd (6'4", 180, 17.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 46.7 FG%, 28.6 3FG%)
G Caleb Fields (6'0", 186, 7.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 4.7 apg, 50.0 FG%, 25.0 3FG%)
F Lado Laku (6'10", 220, 7.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.0 apg, 62.5 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
F Dyondre Dominguez (6'9", 200, 14.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 55.2 FG%, 35.7 3FG%)
Arkansas State began the year with a 29-point loss to Wisconsin that was never close -- the Red Wolves were down 12 points ten minutes into the game and 15 points at the half. The Badgers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game -- they scored 1.3 points per possession and shot 69% on 2-point attempts and 50% on 3-point attempts.
The Red Wolves then suffered a narrow 81-75 loss at Bowling Green before picking up their first win of the season earlier this week, a 100-84 win at home over Alcorn State. Arkansas State's offense was firing on all cylinders in that game -- 1.45 points per possession, 68% on 2-point attempts, and 44% on 3-point attempts.
As you might expect from those point totals, ASU does bring a pretty potent offense into this game -- they rank 90th in offensive efficiency per KenPom, highlighted by a ranking of 54th in effective FG% (55.6%). The Red Wolves are making 34.9% of their 3-point attempts this season (123rd) as well as 58.3% of their 2-point attempts (40th). When they get hot, they can put the ball in the basket.
Defending the 3-point line looks especially important -- in that 29-point loss to Wisconsin, the Red Wolves were just 4-of-21 from deep. In their win over Alcorn State earlier in the week, they made 19-of-43 (!) 3-point tries. If they stay hot from outside, this game could turn into an uncomfortable shootout.
Iowa should be able to hold up its end of the deal in a shootout because Arkansas State has been dreadful on the defensive end this season. The Red Wolves rank 355th in points allowed this season (90.7 ppg) and 291st in defensive efficiency. Arkansas State doesn't contest shots well (332nd in eFG% defense), doesn't force turnovers (328th in turnover rate), and fouls a lot (322nd in free throw rate). That's a recipe for very bad defense.
This is a game where Iowa needs to pounce early and put Arkansas State in a hole. The longer the game stays close, the more confidence the Red Wolves are likely to get and if their shots are falling from outside, that could make for a very uneasy second half. This would be a good game for one or both of the Sandfort brothers (or Josh Dix) to get hot from outside and bury an opponent.
