Published Feb 19, 2025
PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs Oregon (2025)
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Oregon Ducks (18-8, 7-8 Big Ten)

WHEN: 7:30 PM CT (Wednesday, February 19, 2025)

WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)

TV: BTN (Kevin Kugler, Robbie Hummel, Andy Katz)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Oregon -1.5 (total of 160.5)

KENPOM: Oregon -1 (51% chance of winning)

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Iowa returns home from last week's East Coast road trip for a homestand against the Pacific Northwest corner of the Big Ten's new additions: Oregon tonight and Washington on Saturday. The Ducks started Big Ten play well, going 5-3 in league action over the first month of the season. A stretch of four road trips in five games knocked the Ducks out of that winning rhythm, though, as they lost five straight games from January 25 to February 8.

The Ducks rebounded last week, though, taking a pair of home games against Northwestern and Rutgers. Now they're back on the road, facing Iowa tonight and Wisconsin on Saturday. Overall Oregon is 3-4 in Big Ten road games, tough they've lost their last four trips.

Of note: there's a "Student Palooza" event at CHA tonight, with $2 draft beer and $2 soft pretzels being available for students before the game.

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PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP          

G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195 lbs; 10.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 52.9 FG%, 42.2 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.0 ppg; 3.1 rpg; 2.8 apg; 52.0 FG%; 43.2 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.0 ppg; 6.0 rpg; 2.9 apg; 40.2 FG%; 34.0 3FG%)

F Seydou Traore (6'7", 220 lbs; 6.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.4 apg, 44.9 FG%, 25.0 3FG%)

C Riley Mulvey (6'11", 245 lbs; 2.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.4 apg; 75.0 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)

There's a little good news for Iowa's lineup options for tonight's game -- after missing Sunday's game against Maryland, both Riley Mulvey (illness) and Drew Thelwell (ankle injury) are expected to be available for this game.

PROJECTED OREGON STARTING LINEUP          

G Jackson Shelstad (6'0", 180 lbs; 13.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.8 apg, 46.0 FG%, 40.0 3FG%)

G Keeshawn Barthelemy (6'1", 180 lbs; 9.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 4.0.8 FG%, 41.4 3FG%)

F TJ Bamba (6'5", 220 lbs; 10.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 37.6 FG%, 25.0 3FG%)

F Brandon Angel (6'9", 225 lbs; 9.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.2 apg, 54.8 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)

C Nate Bittle (7'0", 240 lbs; 12.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 50.0 FG%, 32.1 3FG%)

PREVIEW    

The Ducks rank respectably in offensive (36th) and defensive efficiency (48th) at a national level, but they've been below-average in league play in both categories. The Ducks are 13th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency and only slightly better (11th) in defensive efficiency.

Oregon has been below average in getting to the line (13th in free throw rate and offensive rebounding rate, grabbing only 27.6% of their misses) and average in effective FG% (51.6%, 9th) and protecting the ball (9th in turnover rate). When it comes to shooting, the Ducks have been below-average at converting 2-point attempts (50.8%, 13th) and average at making 3-pointers (35.2%, 8th).

On defense, the Ducks have managed to turn a few of their offensive weaknesses into strengths -- they don't let opponents get to the free throw line often (6th in free throw rate) or collect missed shots (6th in offensive rebound rate). They're 8th in the league in blocking shots (9.7% of opponent possessions, 8th), mostly because 7-foot big man Nate Bittle averages two blocks per game.

They're not otherwise particularly good at contesting shots, as they rank 12th in effective FG% defense (53.2%) and have allowed opponents to make 52.6% of their 2-point tries (9th) and 36.2% of their 3-point efforts (13th). Their biggest defensive strength has been generating steals (9.7% of opponent possessions, 5th), but Iowa has been the best team in league play at avoiding turnovers this season.

While Maryland was heavily reliant on their starters, Oregon has been a bit more balanced in terms of production this year. The Ducks have been playing eight players 12 or more minutes per game on average and all eight of those players are averaging six points per game or more. Only three Ducks are averaging double figures in scoring (though a fourth, Keeshawn Barthelemy, is right outside that marker, at 9.7 ppg), led by guard Jackson Shelstad at 13.7 ppg.

Shelstad is tied for the team lead in assists at 2.8 per game and he's been one of Oregon's best outside shooters all season (40% on a team-high 125 attempts). Barthelemy is the Ducks' other main outside threat, as he's averaging 41.4% on 111 3-point shots this year. He replaced Jadrian Tracey in the Oregon starting lineup during the Ducks' losing streak and has remained there over the last five games. Tracey is averaging 7.3 ppg this season but hasn't cracked double digits in 10 games.

In addition to leading the team in blocks, Bittle also leads the squad in rebounds (7.0 rpg) and is second in scoring at 12.6 ppg. He (unsurprisingly) does a lot of damage near the rim, as he's shooting 58.9% on 2-point attempts this year, but he also stretches the floor often as a willing three-point shooter, though he hasn't been the most effective sharpshooter at 32.1% on 81 efforts from beyond the arc.

TJ Bamba is the final Duck averaging double figures in scoring at 10.3 ppg, to go along with 3.6 rpg and 2.8 apg. Bamba has been a lousy shooter all season, though, making just 43.8% of his attempts on 2-point shots and only 25.0% of his 76 shots behind the arc. Bamba, a Villanova transfer, was a better shooter last year so he may just be in a funk, but for the moment he's the least fearsome shooter of Oregon's starting five.

Brandon Angel, a Stanford transfer, rounds out the starting five with 9.3 ppg and 4.0 rpg. He's made 55.6% of his 2-point attempts in Big Ten play and 32.4% of his 3-point tries in league action.