PREVIEW: Iowa vs Illinois football

WHO: Illinois Fighting Illini (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)
WHEN: 2:35 PM CT (Saturday, November 18, 2023)
WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1 (Adam Alexander, Devin Gardner)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 113/195
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: temps in the 50s, sunny
LINE: Iowa -3.0 (total of 31.5)

Two games. One win. Indianapolis.

There are two games remaining in the 2023 season for Iowa -- a Senior Day showdown with Illinois and a Black Friday game at Nebraska. The Hawkeyes need to win just one of those two games to lock up a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis in two weeks.

But the degree of difficulty for Iowa continues to ramp up with each week -- and each new star player's absence. First it was Noah Shannon, then Luke Lachey, then Cade McNamara, then Erick All, and now Cooper DeJean. How many key absences can one team withstand? Will DeJean's injury be the straw that breaks the camel's back -- or does this team have a little more smoke and mirrors left in its bag of tricks to get another victory?

The Illini have had to reinvent themselves a bit this season. In 2022, Illinois became one of the surprise teams in the Big Ten on the back of a vicious defense and an adequate offense. In 2023, multiple player departures (and a notable coaching move) have sent the Illini defense tumbling to the bottom of the conference in multiple categories, while the offense has emerged as one of the league's best.

The Illini rank 4th in the Big Ten in total offense (395.7 ypg) and 3rd in yards per play (5.87). Illinois has been especially prolific through the air, ranking 3rd in the league at 261.2 yards per game. Illinois' 7.9 yards per pass attempt is 3rd best in the league and the 64.3% completion percentage ranks 4th best in the Big Ten. Illinois also has the fifth-most passing touchdowns (19) in the league.

Illinois has used two quarterbacks this season, sophomore Luke Altmyer and senior John Paddock, a Ball State transfer. Paddock is fresh off arguably the best passing performance of the season in the Big Ten last week: 24-for-36, 507 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception against Indiana in a 48-45 OT victory.

But Illinois head coach Bret Bielema turned some heads earlier this week when he said that Altmyer would return to the starting lineup this weekend. Altmyer has been solid this season -- 64.8% completion, 1883 yards, 13 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 131.88 QB rating -- and also adds a running threat (94 carries, 282 yards, three touchdowns) that Paddock doesn't.

During the week Iowa defensive line coach Jay Niemann said that Iowa was preparing for both Altmyer and Paddock to play and that seems like the right call -- Altmyer may start, but between his injury status and Paddock's hot hand, Bielema probably won't be shy about turning to Paddock in the passing game if Altmyer struggles.

The top target in the Illinois game (by a wide margin) is junior wide receiver Isaiah Williams, who leads the Big Ten in receptions (68) and ranks second in receiving yards (893). His five touchdowns is second-most on the Illini, behind fellow wide receiver Pat Bryant's six scores. Keeping him in check would have been a big ask even with a healthy DeJean; his absence will put a lot of pressure on Deshaun Lee and Jermari Harris to slow down Williams.

Bryant has been another key target in the passing game, with 36 receptions for 515 yards. Senior wideout Casey Washington also has 32 receptions for 394 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Tip Reiman has 15 catches for 171 yards and has also been a key target around the end zone, with three scores.

The running game has taken a step back for Illinois since the departure of star running back Chase Brown (328 carries, 1643 yards, 10 touchdowns in 2022). Freshman Kaden Feagin leads the team in rushing this year, with 438 yards and two touchdowns on 95 carries. Reggie Love III's return to health gave Illinois a boost -- he's second on the team with 397 yards and three scores on 75 carries and coming off a strong outing against Indiana last week: 24 carries, 140 yards, two touchdowns.

Another key for Illinois on offense this season has been the ability to hit on big plays. Illinois ranks second in the Big Ten in plays of 30+ yards (21) and 40+ yards (12) this season. As always, Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker puts a priority on preventing big plays and the Hawkeye defense ranks first in the Big Ten in fewest plays of 20+ yards allowed (13) and 30+ yards allowed (6). Iowa will need to maintain that stinginess against big plays in this one.

One notable weakness for the Illinois offense? The offensive line hasn't been a brick wall -- the Illini have allowed the second-most sacks in the Big Ten (37.0). The Iowa pass rush has had its ups and downs when it comes to getting to quarterbacks this season, but there could be definite opportunities for it to create havoc in this game.

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Last fall, Illinois led the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing just 12.8 ppg. This season the Illini rank 12th in the league and are allowing 29.3 ppg. Four opponents have scored 30+ points against Illinois and only one (Florida Atlantic) has failed to crack 20 points. That's a promising sign for an Iowa offense that found some real success last week against Rutgers.

Illinois ranks 13th in rushing defense (154.3 ypg) and 10th in yards per carry allowed (4.00). Five opponents have rushed for 160+ yards this season, although the Illini's recent performances have been better -- they key three consecutive opponents under 140 yards and 4.0 yards per carry before allowing 162 yards and three touchdowns to Indiana last week.

The Illinois secondary was a no-fly zone last season. The Illini allowed just 173.8 yards through the air and led the league in completion percentage allowed (51.3%) and QB rating allowed (92.6). They were also second-best in yards per attempt allowed (5.4) and fewest touchdowns allowed (9). Illinois also had a Big Ten-best 24 interceptions.

Things have been a little different this season. Illinois is 12th in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed (233.6 ypg), 10th in the league in QB rating allowed (132.2), 9th in yards per attempt allowed (6.9), and 7th in completion percentage allowed (58.6%). They've also allowed 19 passing touchdowns (tied for the most in the league) and a year after snaring 24 interceptions, they've only picked off five passes this year, worst in the Big Ten.

Illinois has also struggled to create havoc plays this season -- the Illini are tied for last in the Big Ten in sacks (19.0) and rank 11th in tackles for loss (48.0). The Illini's 13 turnovers forced ranks in the middle of the pack for the Big Ten (8th).

The fall-off of the Illinois defense has two main reasons: significant player departures (to graduation and the NFL Draft) from last year's lockdown unit (especially in the secondary) and the departure of defensive coordinator Ryan Walters to become Purdue's new head coach. Despite those departures, though, Illinois does have at least one player capable of ruining offensive gameplans -- DT Jer'Zhan Newton, who has 42 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 8 QB hurries this season.

Linebacker Dylan Rosiek leads the team in tackles this season with 62 and also has three forced fumbles. Pass-rusher Seth Coleman has 6.0 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Defensive back Xavier Scott is the only Illinois player with more than one interception (2); he also has 10 pass break-ups on the year.

Normally, Iowa has a significant edge on special teams against opponents thanks to the 1-2-3 punch of Tory Taylor's booming punts, Drew Stevens' potent placekicking, and Cooper DeJean's excellent work as both a punt returner and a gunner on punt coverage. How much will the absence of DeJean hurt Iowa's special teams? That's TBD, but replacing a player of his brilliance won't be easy.

Taylor still has a notable edge on Illinois punter Hugh Robertson, averaging 47.8 yards per kick versus Robertson's 42.6 yards per kick this season. Illinois placekicker Caleb Griffin is 9/13 (69%) on field goals this year, though he's been a coin-flip on kicks over 40 yards (4/8 on kicks over 40+ yards). Stevens is 17/22 on the season and has missed a kick in each of Iowa's previous two games, but he's still shown a knack for being able to hit big kicks at big moments.

With DeJean, punt returns were almost always an advantage for Iowa. Unfortunately, not only is DeJean out for this game, but Illinois actually leads the Big Ten in punt return average (13.4 yards per return), albeit on only 10 returns.

There's a lot at stake in this game -- clinching a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, avenging last season's loss to Illinois, keeping the Illini winless in Iowa City since 1999, sending the senior class out with a win on Senior Day -- but as Iowa's injury list mounts, its margin of error for winning games seems to get smaller and smaller. Is this the week that they hit a tipping point of losing too many key players?

This feels like a game where the Iowa offense is going to have to hold up its side of the gameplan far more than it has in most games this season -- but it also feels like that's attainable, given how porous the Illini defense has been this season and the significant progress Iowa showed on offense last week. Iowa has a bevy of healthy and talented running backs to throw at Illinois and Deacon Hill seemed to really be figuring a few things out last week.

The pick here is that the Iowa offense is able to build on last week's success with another strong outing here, with Hill throwing for near 200 yards again and the three-headed running back monster getting into the end zone twice. The defense will do more bending that it has in some recent games, but here's betting that the defense will also force a few turnovers and stiffen near the red zone.

Iowa 20, Illinois 13